Thread by @tylerblack32

1/ My first estimate for USA Suicide Rates in 2020 is available. This scan represents my best effort to capture every reported number.

Though the final rate for 2020 will likely creep up due to lag, it is unlikely to go past 2019 levels.

*THE SUICIDE RATE HAS NOT INCREASED*

2/ Rather than reading this as proof of decrease, I would encourage all reporting/sharing this number to read this as "evidence that a significant increase across America is unlikely." I have done my best to estimate data lag, but it will likely head closer to even.

3/ This is an apples-to-apples comparison. Alaska 2019 Jan-Sep is compared to Alaska 2020 Jan-Sep. Because of this, as more data comes in, both the 2019 AND 2020 rates will change.

4/ I made every effort to use the most STABLE NUMBER, to minimize "creeping up" due to data lag.

(For example, I used Illinois' Jan-Sep number because the state expressed confidence in it being a decrease, though I saw a rough Jan-Dec number as well)

5/ Using historical adjustments based upon news reports, I estimate that the rate will increase by about 6% when the final data comes in.

6/ Because I only have partial data, this estimate will change as new data comes in. I will update it any time there is a significant update of numbers. This is not a "prediction" or "poll" (it is NOT a random sample). This is simply a collection of the latest #'s.

7/ I am posting this now not to make a final statement about 2020, but to give all people, especially American reporters, who have severely succumbed to the **moral panic** about the "tsunami of suicides," a complete picture of all the data we currently know.

8/ The smaller counties are so out of line with the larger state numbers that there could be two possibilities.

Is there a rural effect? It's plausible. There are some embargoed (I cannot share yet) reasons why I think it's not likely, but it could be.

9/ I think it's more likely that this is "selection bias." Counties that saw a rise are being reported right now because "there was no change" is not particularly alluring to someone looking at the data.

10/ I chose not to describe the "difference" for small counties, because of the disproportionate effect of variance on these counties. For example, Howard County going from 12 to 17 suicides is a "42% increase", however significant swings are common in such a small county.

11/ There are two states that have broken down their suicide data based upon race (Maryland and Illinois). In both states, the rate increased for Black Americans. In Illinois, it increased for Hispanic Americans. In both states, it decreased for White Americans.

12/ This gives us current data to suggest that the impact of the pandemic and the powerful social response to police violence against Black Americans has had a disproportionate negative impact on Black suicides in 2020.

13/ It is unlikely we will see numbers about Indigenous Americans for a while, I can only see that option on CDC Wonder which is updated at the end of the next year. The blind spot to Indigenous suicide is abhorrent.

14/ (A thread on the ignoring of Indigenous Suicide in American suicide prevention organizations' advocacy is below)

https://twitter.com/tylerblack32/status/1274022654240948224

15/ Regarding gender, I see no evidence of a disproportionate affect on women vs men, but the districts reporting this are exceedingly low and I say that with almost no certainty as to what the final result there will be.

16/ Regarding age, there are famous counties (the awful example of the horrendous reporting by the NYT on Clark County suicides, ignoring the yearly variance) that have shown an increase and much less famous (yay, moral panic) counties showing a decrease.

17/ There were >70 independent articles published in one week about the Clark County NV increase in youth suicides (within variance, but up)

There has been no uptake of the news of Johnson County KS 33% decrease in youth suicides (within variance, but down)

18/ So overall, this thread, and its updates (I will update regularly, as news comes in). You should be able to refer to my timeline for the latest data on suicides that we have.

19/ AND I NEED YOUR HELP

If you see ANY news article, press release, or official document that isn't on my list regarding any suicide # in the world, please email me: [e-mail]

20/ The sources, content, and notes are available here.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…