Q: Why Internet service sucks in rural areas & how to fix it?
A: Internet wires and wireless towers that connect rural areas to the fiber optic Internet backbone are too thin and don’t have enough data carrying capacity.
Think of the Internet as a giant highway system.
Think of the fiber optic backbone as the Interstate highway system.
Think of the fiber optic middle mile mile network as the state high way system.
Think of the last mile network as the street in front of your home.
In rural areas, this street is more like a narrow, long, dirt road.
The longer and narrower this dirt road, the slower your Internet.
The longer and narrower this dirt road the more it costs to pave it.
Paving these roads is often not profitable for ISPs in rural areas.
Paving roads in Internet terms involves bringing a fiber optic cable from the fiber optic middle mile network to a rural home.
This is because fiber’s data carrying capacity is several thousand times more than any other data pipe out there.
Relevant physics: C=B log2 (1+S/N)
For more context on fiber’s capacity:
Two fiber strands have more capacity than 10,000 Starlink satellites and a typical fiber cable has 48 strands.
Fiber lasts well over 30 years VS a satellite in lower earth orbit which lasts 5 years.
Point: fiber always wins on physics.
The cost to bring fiber to a rural home in America is $4,200 according to @fiberopticassoc .
At such levels pay back period starts exceeding 10 yrs for ISPs.
But Americans spend over $9,000/year on home improvement.
Positioning fiber ownership as home improvement can help.
We have found that even at $5,000 per home connected, it is possible for Internet users to “own” their fiber optic connection and get fiber Internet for $0 down and under $60/month.
In other words: owning your Internet connection is better and cheaper than renting it.
Just like home mortgage payments can sometimes be lower than rental payments, the same is true for owning your fiber optic connection when financed over a 20-30 year period.
The best example of this claim is a small town in Idaho called Ammon.
Example: Homeowners in Ammon can get gigabit Internet for under $44/month.
How: Local Govt in Ammon helped 269 of homeowners “own” a last mile fiber network through a 20 year, $3,000 loan.
This was made possible through a Local Improvement District (LID) structure.
The Ammon model is unique though because the local Govt also manages this network + had access to local expertise and local champions to build this network in the first place.
Such models aren’t possible everywhere because local govts are often resource constrained.
An alternative is for private citizens to register a new cooperative with their neighbors.
If 30 homeowners register a coop and deposit $5,000 each, this coop can hire a fiber construction company to create a $150,000 job to connect their homes to fiber + get permits as well.
The after tax interest cost on a $5,000 home equity line of credit loan is $15/month at 5% interest rate at 27% income tax rate.
HELOC is a standard loan product. Tax deductions available on home improvement expenses.
HELOC is a 30 yr loan product.
Once this coop is created, it can sign a middle mile access agreement with the middle mile provider for about $15/home/month.
Remaining costs are planning, coordination, billing, maintenance, customer service and admin. We at @netequity1 think all this can be done for $30/month
So in summary, monthly costs to own a fiber connection and get fiber Internet for one home are:
$15 HELOC after tax interest
$15 middle mile access
$10 maintenance
$10 customer service
$10 coordination, planning, oversight and admin
——-
$60/month
Homes with fiber connections tend to appreciate in value by 3.1% when RENTING Internet from an ISP.
When OWNING this Internet connection we expect value appreciation to be higher.
So a 5% value gain on a $120,000 rural home (ie $6,000) will instantly pay for fiber investment.
At @netequity1 we want to help rural communities build, own and operate fiber networks.
I’ve been tinkering with the sequencing of our message, hence this thread.
HUGE thanks if you read this far.
Please ask questions or share feedback. That will be me refine our messaging.
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Owning Solar Panels vs Owning Fiber Optic Connections (10 points)
I know owning fiber connections isn't a thing yet, but neither was roof-top solar. In this thread I compare owning your electricity with owning your Internet.
1. Physics: Fiber wins BIGLY.
Solar generates power during the day only. Solar panel efficiency is still improving. Not much more to be done with the physics of a fiber topic strand. Accessing more bandwidth just requires upgrading electronics that don't cost much.
2. Construction cost: Fiber wins slightly
Solar roof cost ranges from $15,000 - $25,000. An average fiber connection costs $2,000 in America! Fiber Optic Association considers $4,200 / household to be a complex rural project.
Imagine being a VP of Product at a unicorn tech company (~2,000+ employees) at the age of 29 and then deciding to quit your career to become a historian....without having any background in history!
Meet Azfar Moin, a Pakistani man who pulled this off.
Today Azfer is considered a world class historian. His book, The Millenial Sovereign: Sacred Kingship and Sainthood in Islam, has won several prestigious awards and he is currently a tenured prof at UT Austin.
Last year I got a glimpse of the question that drives him:
“Why would the most powerful man in the world (Emperor Akbar) declare himself an apostate? (Akbar declared himself the most sacred being on earth, turns out many before him (eg Genghis Khan) pulled off a similar move)
I had the privilege of meeting an incredible Pakistani yesterday. @sidraqasim is best known today as co-founder and COO of @WearAtoms , a leading footwear company she created with her husband Waqas. 1/n #persistence
Sidra was born and raised in Okara, Pakistan. When she finished high school she had to enroll in an all-boys college but not attend classes with other boys. Studying in seclusion was uncomfortable but she persisted.
When she got her first job in Lahore, it paid PKR 10,000 / month and that meant living in a hostel near Firdous Market where monthly rent was PKR 4,000. Living in a cramped hostel was uncomfortable but she persisted.
Fiber backed securities: the key to unlocking a $100 bn market driven stimulus that will
1. Deliver a 9% return to investors (4% annual cash coupon, 5% capital gains)
2. Make fiber Internet accessible to 50 million low/mid income American households for $9.25/month
How it works: investors will subscribe to shares of a NewCo. NewCo will use cash to invest $2,000/home as growth capital in several homes to pay for a last mile fiber connection. In exchange NewCo gets fractional share in multiple homes + $6.5/mth/home cash dividend.
When a fiber connected home is sold, NewCo can exercise its tag along right to sell along with home owner OR continue to stay in the property to keep earning a 4% coupon. Worth noting that Fiberizing a home causes its value to experience a one time bump of 3-7%!
How to finance a rural fiber project at $10,000 / Household Connected without subsidies- a thread.
$10k / HHC is considered extremely difficult because payback on such a cost at $50 monthly revenue is well over 30 years. Unfortunately many areas in America fall within this extremely rural category and are therefore neglected.
For context, the @fiberopticassoc considers $3,600 as a complex rural deployment. Implying that $10,000 would be quite outrageous.
The imagined reality of capital gains financing critical infrastructure
@harari_yuval says nations, money and corporations are imagined realities. He argues that fictions narrated by lawyers today are far more fantastic than witch doctors of days past. His larger point is that when enough people believe in a story, it becomes real.
I consider myself a financial engineer. I use my knowledge of market forces to construct bankable contracts in order to solve a problem. For the last four years I’ve focused only on one problem: how to make Internet access affordable for all.