I’m seeing worrying comments from people that feel taking the Oxford/AZ jab is now pointless.
This is *absolutely* the wrong take: it remains a highly effective vaccine against severe illness for both the original virus AND the UK variant. Most likely the South African one too.
So take whatever vaccine you’re offered - the most important thing is to keep people out of hospitals.
If the vaccines do need to be updated (we don’t know yet), it will happen by autumn. Spring and summer will help keep transmission low until then.
There is no cause for alarm.
If you need further convincing please take a minute or so to watch this reassuring clip from the lead researcher on the vaccine, Professor Sarah Gilbert.
The Prime Minister says we can now deal with COVID in a “very different way”, moving to personal responsibility whilst retaining “our contingent capabilities so we can respond rapidly to any new variant”.
He says we now have sufficient immunity to rely on vaccines and treatments as our first line of defence.
In England, all remaining domestic restrictions in law will end. From 24 February the legal requirement to self isolate am following a positive test will end.
Self isolation support payments will also end, though COVID provisions for statutory sick pay can still be claimed for a further month. Routine contact tracing will end, along with daily testing for close contacts. Unvaccinated close contacts will not have to legally self isolate
1) The number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths being reported at the moment is rising - and the figures are probably higher than you might expect given what we know about Omicron. Particularly the relatively stable number of confirmed COVID patients in intensive care.
2) Remember the official figure reported is anyone who has died within 28 days of a positive COVID-19 test.
Being included doesn’t necessarily mean that person has passed away due to COVID, though it’s been a very reliable metric in the past, when infection rates were lower.
3) In the four most recent weeks of @ONS data, there were around 1,650 total deaths registered per day in England. And in the past 28 days an incredible 3.02 million have tested positive in England, from a population last estimated at 67.1 million (4.5%).
1/ It’s depressing seeing headlines today about “circuit breakers”, following some extraordinary projections on deaths published yesterday.
It’s difficult to square this with what we’ve been seeing in South Africa, though I appreciate you cannot directly compare two countries.
2/ There’s still much uncertainty around Omicron’s severity. But we can see that cases are growing at an incredible rate. The concern is understandable. I genuinely have no idea how this will play out and can sympathise with the “plan for the worst, hope for the best” approach.
3/ In the meantime the remarkable number of people coming forward for boosters will make a significant difference in the next few weeks. It remains the single most effective tool in our armoury. The message has got through and our wall of immunity is strengthening all the time.
I’ve been on an extended break and resisted the urge to Tweet for a long time now (3 months plus).
I’ve been keeping a watchful eye on everything COVID related though, and thankfully nothing too dramatic has occurred in that time.
The emergence of Omicron is an unwelcome development that is causing understandable concern. But it’s very early days and I am in complete awe of the scientists that have detected it, shared what information they have quickly accumulated and alerted the world. Thank you.
It’s really important that people don’t panic - no one knows with any certainty how this will play out. So we all need a little patience until we understand more about what we’re facing. It really won’t take long. Some very clever people are working flat-out on this right now.
1) I keep seeing suggestions that vaccines must not be working because more fully vaccinated people are dying than non-vaccinated.
This is a bad take as it’s actually what you’d expect to see: COVID mortality risk rises sharply with age, and we've vaccinated older groups first.
2) The nine JCVI vaccine priority groups accounted for 99% of COVID deaths and the great majority of those people have now been double jabbed. But vaccines aren’t perfect, and some will have serious underlying conditions or weakened immune systems that make them more vulnerable.
3) This helps explain why many of the ~30 COVID deaths we’re seeing per day at the moment are double-jabbed individuals.
But the vaccines have *substantially* reduced the risk of death overall and that’s why COVID’s IFR has fallen dramatically to 0.085% (less than 1 in 1,000).