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Covid Fact Check UK Profile picture
Covid Fact Check UK
@fact_covid
ACCOUNT NO LONGER ACTIVE. Previously shared official data and verified online claims about COVID-19. Independent, politically neutral, unfunded. Run by Tristan.
Feb 21, 2022 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
The Prime Minister says we can now deal with COVID in a “very different way”, moving to personal responsibility whilst retaining “our contingent capabilities so we can respond rapidly to any new variant”. He says we now have sufficient immunity to rely on vaccines and treatments as our first line of defence.

In England, all remaining domestic restrictions in law will end. From 24 February the legal requirement to self isolate am following a positive test will end.
Jan 8, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
1) The number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths being reported at the moment is rising - and the figures are probably higher than you might expect given what we know about Omicron. Particularly the relatively stable number of confirmed COVID patients in intensive care. 2) Remember the official figure reported is anyone who has died within 28 days of a positive COVID-19 test.

Being included doesn’t necessarily mean that person has passed away due to COVID, though it’s been a very reliable metric in the past, when infection rates were lower.
Dec 18, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
1/ It’s depressing seeing headlines today about “circuit breakers”, following some extraordinary projections on deaths published yesterday.

It’s difficult to square this with what we’ve been seeing in South Africa, though I appreciate you cannot directly compare two countries. 2/ There’s still much uncertainty around Omicron’s severity. But we can see that cases are growing at an incredible rate. The concern is understandable. I genuinely have no idea how this will play out and can sympathise with the “plan for the worst, hope for the best” approach.
Nov 28, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Officials said yesterday that 61 people on two flights from Cape Town to South Africa tested positive for COVID upon arrival in the Netherlands.

Not clear if this latest info relates to the same flights but, if so, it would suggest the majority of positives were in fact Delta. 13 is not an insignificant number though, and it seems likely Omicron has spread quite extensively already.
Nov 27, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I’ve been on an extended break and resisted the urge to Tweet for a long time now (3 months plus).

I’ve been keeping a watchful eye on everything COVID related though, and thankfully nothing too dramatic has occurred in that time. The emergence of Omicron is an unwelcome development that is causing understandable concern. But it’s very early days and I am in complete awe of the scientists that have detected it, shared what information they have quickly accumulated and alerted the world. Thank you.
Jul 14, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1) I keep seeing suggestions that vaccines must not be working because more fully vaccinated people are dying than non-vaccinated.

This is a bad take as it’s actually what you’d expect to see: COVID mortality risk rises sharply with age, and we've vaccinated older groups first. 2) The nine JCVI vaccine priority groups accounted for 99% of COVID deaths and the great majority of those people have now been double jabbed. But vaccines aren’t perfect, and some will have serious underlying conditions or weakened immune systems that make them more vulnerable.
Jul 12, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
In the House of Commons, @sajidjavid says that Step 4 in England will be a “one-way journey” and that we are on track to meet vaccination targets by 19 July.

He says the link between infection and hospitalisation has been “severely weakened”. Cases could reach 100k this summer. We should be encouraged hospitalisations are much lower than in previous waves, he said.

“We do not believe that infection rates will put unsustainable pressure on the NHS”, says Javid.
Jun 14, 2021 • 5 tweets • 4 min read
Massive data dump from the government tonight. Will link to everything here:

Slides from tonight’s briefing: gov.uk/government/pub…

SAGE minutes - 27 May: gov.uk/government/pub…

SAGE minutes - 3 June: gov.uk/government/pub…

SAGE minutes - 9 June: gov.uk/government/pub… SPI-M-O: Consensus statement on COVID-19, 19 May - gov.uk/government/pub…

SPI-M-O: Consensus statement on COVID-19, 26 May - gov.uk/government/pub…

LSHTM: Dynamics of Delta (B.1.617.2) - gov.uk/government/pub…
Jun 13, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
It’s pretty clear a four week delay to Step 4 in England will be announced tomorrow.

Assuming that’s the case, I hope @BorisJohnson is at least clear on what targets need to met in terms of hospitalisations (and other key metrics) for us to move on to that next stage on 19 July. It’s true that fewer beds are currently occupied than envisaged in various modelling scenarios. But they are on an upward trajectory, and with uncertainty over Delta, and cases climbing sharply, a cautious approach is not surprising. This government does not want to go backwards.
Jun 12, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
It’s hard to see COVID-Status Certification being introduced domestically off the back of this damning report:

They will “disproportionately discriminate” based on race, religion, age and socio-economic background, a cross-party committee has concluded.

theguardian.com/politics/2021/… There will be 22,500 fans for England’s group matches at Wembley, and if its vaccine passport system runs smoothly many more could be allowed at the semi-finals and final at the stadium.

Other major sports have called for COVID certification to enable larger crowds this summer.
Jun 11, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
New research suggests the Delta variant is associated with an approximately 60% increased risk of household transmission compared to the Alpha variant.

Regional growth rate estimates for doubling time range from 4.5 days to 11.5 days.

gov.uk/government/new… Latest data indicates that over 90% of new COVID-19 cases in the UK are now the Delta variant, which continues to show a significantly higher rate of growth compared to the Alpha variant.
Jun 9, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Looking at the start of England’s second wave last September, 84 COVID patients were admitted to hospital on 7/9. By 20/9 that had risen to 237.

A total 2,287 COVID patients were admitted in those two weeks.

During that period occupied beds increased by 619 (from 555 to 1,174). Flash forward to this latest wave. On 25 May, 88 COVID patients were admitted to hospital in England. By 7 June that had risen to 131.

A total 1,358 COVID patients were admitted in those two weeks.

During that period occupied beds increased by just 115 (from 765 to 860).
Jun 7, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
I saw that the @sangerinstitute genomic surveillance website had updated this morning.

Nationally the Delta variant continues to gain ground - 74.9% of all samples in England were found to be this variant in the week ending 29 May, up from 58.6% the week before. Worth keeping an eye on Sefton though. B.1.1.7 (Alpha) has staged a bit of a comeback against Delta, growing in proportion in week ending 22 May and maintaining that in week ending 29 May. That’s hard to explain given what we understand about Delta’s transmissibility advantage.
May 13, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Whilst there’s understandable concern over variants, important to note:

- New cases are up a bit overall, but from a low base

- The number of COVID hospital patients is still falling

- Admissions remain very low

- Deaths are still dropping and averaging fewer than 10 per day We’ve managed to get the UK into a very strong position through tough restrictions and a rapid vaccine rollout. And we have fantastic resource for dealing with new variants - unrivalled testing capacity, excellent sequencing ability and great public health teams.
May 10, 2021 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
One question I'm being asked a lot at the moment is "should I be worried about the (so-called) Indian variant"?

It's not simple to answer, and will depend on who's asking. But I don't believe this is something the public should be panicked over.

A thread below 👇 Firstly, there is no doubt that B.1.617.2 is spreading quickly, more so than any other VOC we've seen since B.1.1.7. (the variant first identified in Kent, which has since swept the world).

See this informed and sober analysis here.
Apr 23, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
We shouldn’t underestimate the risk of new variants. Indeed B.1.1.7 changed the course of the pandemic in the UK and has spread across the world.

But the overblown media coverage, premature claims of vaccine escape and ridiculous use of terms such as “double mutant” has to stop. Never before has a virus been so well monitored in real-time, and our genomic surveillance capability is second to none. But it feels like this has led to a paranoia and sense of impending doom that a new variant will inevitably emerge that will set us back to square one.
Apr 22, 2021 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
The latest @PHE_uk Technical Briefing on Variants of Concern & Under Investigation has been published.

There’s significant detail on the B.1.617 variant first detected in India. You can see here that as of 22 April 67% of detected cases were travellers.

gov.uk/government/pub… The lineage B.1.617 contains 3 clades with different mutation profiles, as detailed below.

Only B.1.617.1 is currently designated a variant under investigation. The others are merely under surveillance.
Apr 22, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Today’s reported deaths figure of 18 is 40% down on last week (30) - the lowest Thursday since 10 September (14).

Latest seven-day averages:

Today: 22
Yesterday: 24 (-7.1%)
A week ago: 30 (-26.1%)
23 January peak: 1,248 (-98.2%) Today’s 2,729 reported cases figure meanwhile is 2.1% up on last week (2,672).

Latest seven-day averages:

Today: 2,471
Yesterday: 2,386 (+0.3%)
A week ago: 2,667 (-7.4%)
9 Jan peak: 59,660 (-95.9%)
Apr 20, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
For some objective, informed and non-alarmist analysis of the B.1.617 variant first detected in India, I would highly recommend reading this expert reaction.

h/t @csylong_mk

sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reactio… “B.1.617 has 13 mutations that result in amino acid changes. B.1.617 has been described as a ‘double mutant’. This term is used to refer to two mutations in spike (E484Q and L452R) but is inaccurate, has no specific meaning and should be avoided.”
Apr 16, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Today’s reported deaths figure of 34 is 43.4% down on last week (60), and the lowest Friday since 18 September (27).

Latest seven-day averages:

Today: 26
Yesterday: 30 (-12.3%)
A week ago: 32 (-17.4%)
23 January peak: 1,248 (-97.9%) Today’s 2,596 reported cases figure meanwhile is 17.6% down on last week (3,150) - the lowest Friday since 4 September (1,940).

Latest seven-day averages:

Today: 2,588
Yesterday: 2,667 (-3.0%)
A week ago: 2,829 (-8.5%)
9 Jan peak: 59,660 (-95.7%)
Apr 15, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Today’s reported deaths figure of 30 is 43.4% down on last week (53), and the lowest Thursday since 17 September (21).

Latest seven-day averages:

Today: 30
Yesterday: 33 (-9.8%)
A week ago: 31 (-2.3%)
23 January peak: 1,248 (-97.6%) Today’s 2,672 reported cases figure meanwhile is 20.0% down on last week (3,030) - the lowest Thursday since 3 September (1,735).

Latest seven-day averages:

Today: 2,667
Yesterday: 2,719 (-1.9%)
A week ago: 2,865 (-6.9%)
9 Jan peak: 59,660 (-95.5%)