I realized this within the past few weeks more definitively ... a short thread though on some OK news that the article doesn’t frame correctly in my opinion
Sure COVID-19 is here to stay but you have to look at it from the perspective of what these vaccines are able to do and the modern miracles that they are
The whole reason that we have a global pandemic is that when a subset of the population with particular characteristics get COVID-19 today they get very sick or hospitalized and die
Everyone of the five approved vaccines in the west are 100% effective in preventing death in those studied and all of them are highly effective in stopping people from being hospitalized
Thus this turns COVID-19 with those vaccinated into some thing like the cold or the common flu if you get COVID-19 in the future and our vaccinated and don’t have to be hospitalized and or die then it becomes some thing that is manageable
Manageable doesn’t mean that COVID-19 is gone forever it is likely here forever but we never changed our lives by masking social distancing etc. for the common flu or cold we didn’t shut down businesses enable stay at home orders and fundamentally alter life
If COVID-19 can be made like the common cold or flu life will return to normal it’s inevitable
Let’s talk about what inevitable means and timeline framing first from the perspective of the west and the United States in particular
Given a slow roll out and phase roll out of the vaccines and the two shot regimen that exists for them it’s about 6 to 8 weeks from the point of getting the first shot to the point of getting the strong immunity
Given that we are going to do the 6 to 8 week dance possibly four times due to the phase roll out that sets the United States somewhere in the realm of summer to early fall when we have achieved a level of herd immunity
That is why you keep hearing that timeline now let’s talk about masking and social distancing in between now and then
You still have to wear masks and social distancing even if you’re vaccinated mainly because the edge nodes in this tree of life may lead to some set of people that are vulnerable still or not vaccinated
Recall in those cases people with particular conditions or genetics or comorbidities may get the virus get really sick and die
However 75% herd immunity means that the majority of people should Covid-19 be spread to them will not get really sick be hospitalized and die because remember the vaccines have been shown to prevent that
So it is my strong belief that by the summer and fall similar to what Dr. Fauci has said we will see a return to normal or some semblance of that a.k.a. not having to wear masks and not having to social distance
In between now and then we will see things like immunity passports we will see things like testing increase and so on and so forth because the reality is the United States and the west are not the only places that need to prevent coronavirus
The budding crisis in parallel to this is something called vaccine nationalism
Explained simply this means all of the rich countries have either bought or have access to most of the vaccines whereas the poor countries do not
What this means is that even if we make Covid-19 like the flu and things go back to normal over here the virus may range and mutate in the rest of the poorer countries and come back to bite us later in years
To combat this we need to be part of @covaxxvaccine and other initiatives and get the vaccine doses to those countries now and get the virus to be like the flu over there too
In the meanwhile there is something that you can do even before being vaccinated to make COVID-19 behave more like the flu
It starts with eating better, cutting more sugars and carbs out of your diet and getting healthier and exercising
So there is a light coming at the end of the tunnel ... stay strong
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