Ebola resurgence can happen well after transmission is controlled
Ebola virus can last in semen, perhaps up to 2 years. Ebola after recovery likely waxes and wanes in some in immunologically protected areas(testes, also eyes) leading to sexual transmission cdc.gov/media/releases…
In July 2015, there was a death from Ebola in Liberia after transmission had been halted. Many theories raised then, including sexual transmission but also zoonotic transmission from meat rather than from bats or standard reservoirs thelancet.com/journals/lanre…
Most sexual transmission has been associated with male partners and semen. It is not thought that female partners transmit the virus. cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/tran…
However, pregnancy can lead to unexpected and persistent reservoir of viral activity, while the mother has recovered and done well (and given vomiting in pregnancy may not have known she was even infected).
In January 2015, a healthy woman in Bo, Sierra Leone gave birth to a stillborn. The attentive midwife swabbed the stillborn as all deaths were to be swabbed (but stillborns, miscarriages often not)...
The stillborn result was quite positive (Ct value 16) but the mother's blood tested negative and only recalled what she thought were pregnancy related. Her husband though was known to have Ebola the month before ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
This all points to pregnancy creating a protected reservoir for Ebola, though usually pregnant women are at the highest risk for severe Ebola, severity can vary.
This brings us to what was likely the most unusual cluster in Liberia in November 2015 when a 15 year old boy arrived at a clinic, found to have Ebola, long after transmission stopped. Father then found ill, as well as 8 year old brother nytimes.com/2015/11/21/wor…
With further history and viral lineage analysis, it looks like the mother likely was infected in 2014 (when her brother was) and the virus persisted/resurged, which may be related to her pregnancy and birth of the 3rd baby sibling in the family thelancet.com/journals/lanin…
Immunologic protected sites like the testes and eyes are known sites of intermitten Ebola replication post recovery. Sexual transmission from men is documented. This immune protection and transmission may also occur w/pregnancy in rarely, though pregnant women face high mortality
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The longer we let COVID simmer, the longer it has to not just a) cause badness for us b) develop variants that spread and cause more badness but c) find an animal host that will make it a lot harder for it to go away
Although case positivity is low, testing has not been aimed at those symptomatic, but often those who are tested are not those who are symptomatic. Many are tested for plane flights with ticket in hand.
Deaths from COVID have not stood out, but without testing and in a young population, severe cases may not be as apparent.
This is heartbreaking. Armando Manzanero was a musical legend and an elderly man. He was asked to inaugurate a museum exhibition for tourism without social distancing indoors, with imperfect masking. He died 17 days later of COVID.