Positive vaccine news! An initial statistical analysis estimates that vaccinated people who do test positive for the coronavirus in PCR are likely to be LESS infectious. @erlichya's team estimate these people have 1.6x to 20x lower viral load than unvaccinated people.
Read the thread for how @erlichya and the @MyHeritage team estimated this difference from the lab data they were seeing.
Note, too, that this is in addition to the big estimated increase in vaccinated people who aren't testing positive in the first place.
Summing up these two pieces of research:

1. The Pfizer vaccine seems to be reducing infection (ie positive tests) by 66-85%.
2. For those who do test positive after vaccination, they seem to be less infectious (1.6-20x less viral load)

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More from @ariehkovler

7 Feb
A key QAnon concept is that tweets or comments from public figures are often "comms", secret messages to the QAnon faithful that point to specific Q drops or carry other hidden meanings.
They used to be obsessed with Chuck Grassley's erratic tweeting style. Now they look for Q 'comms' from Pompeo, Giuliani, Pascale or even, yup, Hillary Clinton!
Now, why would QAnon believers think that Hillary Clinton, their nemesis, is sending Q comms? That's easy. They think the military secretly controls her Twitter account, or that she might be in jail or executed.

Or maybe Q is a time traveller. This theory is common too.
Read 4 tweets
4 Feb
Note the Trumpist pivot to being anti-Wall Street again now Trump has lost.
It's hard to remember now, but Trump's hyper-populist 2016 campaign attacked Wall Street, big business, the banks, the Saudis... his strongest attack on Hillary was that she was in the pocket of business.
As soon as he was elected, Trump started sucking up to the Saudis, appointed a bunch of Wall Street types to key posts, weakened banking regulations and gave these companies huge tax cuts. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 8 tweets
3 Feb
From tomorrow, Israel is opening its vaccination programme to cover all residents over the age of 16. The decision is partly because of success in vaccinating over-70s, but also a response to the slower vaccine uptake among the 35-69 age groups.
Most over-60s have had their second dose already (pink in the graph), and first doses among the other eligible age-groups 35-59 and 16-18, have been around 75k a day for a while. Vaccine centres are empty.
Israel's population is very young. There are nearly as many 20-29s as there are over-60s. So in absolute terms, opening vaccinations to all will mean a lot more doses delivered.
Read 5 tweets
1 Feb
Prevalence of the B117 British variant of Sars-CoV-2 in Israel as a percentage of total cases.

The blue line is the Arab community where prevalence is about 25%.
The brown line is the Haredi (Ultra-Orthodox) Jewish community, 90%.
Purple is the wider public: up to 80%
On the one hand, this is strong evidence that the Pfizer vaccine protects against B117. Israel is still seeing a strong protective effect among the vaccinated despite the British variant.
On the other hand, after an initial dip, cases are rising again despite the lockdown as the more infectious B117 variant spreads.
Read 4 tweets
1 Feb
That was quick. Silver has been a cult for decades. The first time some true believer tried to sell me shares in a silver mine was 2004. It was going to boom any day now!

theguardian.com/business/2021/…
A few of my friends got into buying silver in like 2014. It was being pushed by ZeroHedge, a cult investment site with ties to Putin, and Russia Today's Max Keiser. For years, they and thousands of others have been buying silver.
ZeroHedge in particular has been trying to convince the WSB crowd to pump silver. So has Keiser. ImageImage
Read 8 tweets
31 Jan
Israel vaccine update: Of 668,100 over-60s who had their second Pfizer jab more than a week ago, 473 have tested positive for the virus. Of them, 38 are hospitalised, 14 are considered 'serious' and 2 have died.
For comparison, among ALL over-60s in the last week, 3,835 tested positive for the virus, some 0.25% of the total population of over-60s.
Comparing the fully vaccinated (ie 7 days past 2nd dose) over-60s with the non-fully-vaccinated over-60s, there's an 83% decrease in observed cases of Covid-19.
Read 7 tweets

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