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Neil Woodfine Profile picture
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8 Feb, 5 tweets, 1 min read
1/ Look, I'm concerned about the dangerous custodianisation of bitcoin as more corporates start hodling.

But wew, Tesla buying bitcoin is pure, unadulterated, 100% mainstreaming of bitcoin as an inflation hedge on savings/treasuries.
2/ Before it was Microstrategy and Square, fairly obscure B2B companies to most people.

Tesla is globally recognised, respected. Now everyone will want a piece to offset their treasury inflation.
3/ Musk, already the wealthiest man in the world, will get history-breaking rich as Bitcoin pumps 2x, 3x, 4x, and more.

Other billionaires are going to get pissed.
4/ "The other billionaires already have some, they just bought quietly," you might be thinking.

If a bunch of billionaires already bought significant sums of bitcoin we'd be higher than the paltry, pathetic 800B market cap.
5/ Most bitcoin are held in the hands of sovereign individual pleb hodlers. Or lost.

Not much floating around on the market out there.

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More from @nwoodfine

Neil Woodfine Profile picture
9 Feb
1/ My prediction for the 2021 bitcoin bull run:

i. Price hits a minimum $100k+ peak.
ii. Western governments introduce unprecedented emergency regulations, such as withdrawal bans, turning off the buy button, and investor restrictions...
2/
...
iii. Price dumps, most of the new corporate investors panic sell.
iv. Repeat the usual halvening cycle, as hodlers of last resort hold the line at a higher low and the industry adapts, evolves, routes around the new regulations. Life, uh, finds a way.
3/ Some have likened Tesla's entry into bitcoin as a watershed moment of bitcoin finally mainstreaming. Well, with the mainstreaming, the real games begin, and bitcoin's proper enemies (not amateur-hour big blockers) rear their ugly, fanged heads.
Read 14 tweets
Neil Woodfine Profile picture
26 Oct 20
1/ So much of the debate is around how deadly COVID is, or the effectiveness of the lockdowns, or the magnitude of the collateral damage.

But that immediately concedes the frame to the tyrants, both large and small.
2/ The implication of arguing in this fashion is that if the disease was actually that deadly, or the lockdowns were effective, or the collateral damage harmed fewer than it helped, then all this control and oppression might be acceptable.
3/ The implication is that imprisoning peaceful people, mandating what they wear, when they can do business, who they can meet, forcing people to die alone, and all the other evil stuff going on around the world right now *could* be okay *if* the disease was dangerous enough.
Read 5 tweets
Neil Woodfine Profile picture
24 Oct 20
1/ The assault against open-source software that emerged recently will not be resolved by self-hosting alone.

One of the authorities’ obvious next steps, after GitHub has “harmonised” its platform, is to demand licenses to host any software and maybe even licenses to produce it.
2/ These new rules will be implemented in the name of “ensuring new technology fits with the values of society” and “guaranteeing that everyone has a democratic stake in how technology affects our lives.”
3/ The urgency of the regulations will be accelerated by two things:

(i) Bitcoin’s threat to the increasingly fragile and controlled fiat monetary system.

(ii) The emergence of decentralised, self-hosted communication apps that circumvent the censorship and encryption bans.
Read 6 tweets
Neil Woodfine Profile picture
6 Jan 20
1/ "What happens when the internet gets switched off?" Despite the best hopes of many salty nocoiners, a surprising number of great engineers have been thinking about how to keep bitcoin running in offline environments.
2/ Bitcoin is as much a hardware revolution as it is a software revolution. If your private keys are on someone else's device, the bitcoin are not yours. If your full node is in the cloud, it's not you verifying transactions.
3/ And if you're totally dependent on someone else's network hardware for access to the bitcoin network, then you're at risk of being cut off when things go wrong. Some reasons you might want to transact "offline" include...
Read 51 tweets
Neil Woodfine Profile picture
4 Oct 19
1/ This is an idea I’m still working with, so comments and corrections welcome: S2F is only an *outcome* of something more fundamental, hence some people taking offence at the metric being used to explain bitcoin’s value.
2/ For instance, you theoretically could have a good in low demand with a high S2F ratio, and its high S2F ratio would be a *product of* its low demand. The sale value of the good would be so low that only a few small manufacturers would bother producing it.
3/ Now let’s imagine that same good, for whatever reason, suddenly sees a surge in demand. New manufacturers would rush in, supply would increase, and S2F would rapidly decrease. It was always cheap to make, just few people originally wanted it compared to the existing stock.
Read 18 tweets
Neil Woodfine Profile picture
1 Oct 19
1/ To expand on this further, the idea of money "storing" value is just a metaphor, and often leads to the illusion confusion. People don't really agree or believe or imagine that money "has" value. Instead, individuals simply seek to obtain money as a means to further ends.
2/ They accept money as an intermediary good which they can subsequently exchange for something else. Each individual is constantly making a series value judgements on which goods to accept in exchange for the goods they produce themselves, on a path to satisfying their own ends.
3/ This will of course take into account how many people are demanding various intermediary goods at that instant—which goods are most "saleable"—but will also take into account other factors, including properties that might cause goods to be more or less demanded in the future.
Read 18 tweets

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