Omar Wasow | @owasow@bsky.social Profile picture
Feb 8, 2021 13 tweets 5 min read Read on X
”We are now potentially dealing with a problem of *mass radicalization*. We’re not talking about the case of a few people that got themselves caught up in an extremist milieu and then radicalized. We’re potentially talking about millions of people.” npr.org/2021/02/08/964…
One response to this tweet a few days ago was to dismiss the idea of ”mass radicalization.” Yes, it’s unlikely millions of citizens are going to engage in violent insurrection against the US. That definition is too narrow, though. Radicalization isn’t just about violence.
In any movement, people who commit violence will tend be a small percentage of the group. That in no way precludes millions from sharing a radical ideology, endorsing violent tactics, using violent rhetoric, dehumanizing outgroups and working to undermine democratic institutions.
When a mainstream organization engages in radical behavior, it can be hard to reconcile the conflicting signals. The GOP is the second-oldest surviving party in the US. From statehouses to the ex-President, the GOP, is also increasingly opposed to core democratic principles.
.@ThePlumLineGS makes the case clearly. ”Trump’s acquittal only confirms what many observers had long pointed out: In some fundamental sense, much of the GOP is no longer functioning as an actor in a democracy.” washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…
.@NormOrnstein & Mann: ”GOP has become an insurgent outlier in US politics. It is ideologically extreme; scornful of compromise; unmoved by conventional understanding of facts, evidence & science; dismissive of the legitimacy of its political opposition.” washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…
Levitsky & Ziblatt ”lay out a four-part test for identifying authoritarian leaders: rejecting democratic institutions, denying legitimacy of political opponents, tolerating or encouraging violence and curtailing civil liberties.” US now easily at 3 of 4. bookshop.org/books/how-demo…
Militant partisans on both left and right endorse violence. That doesn’t mean it’s symmetrical. Among GOP, ”9% said military should overthrow new president; 25% said citizens should prepare weapons to resist the federal government.” washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/…
What’s important about the idea of ”mass radicalization” is not extremists endorsing violence. Democratic governments can be overthrown both by insurrection and legally from within. Yes, political violence is serious but the bigger threat is the coup attempts that are bloodless.
From 2014: ”Political scientists have known for years that political polarization is largely a one-sided phenomenon: in recent decades the Republican Party has moved to the right much faster than Democrats have moved to the left.” washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2…
An analysis in 2019 looked at documents that lay out a group’s goals & policy ideas. They found ”The GOP leans much farther right than most traditional conservative parties in Western Europe & Canada, according to an analysis of their election manifestos.” nytimes.com/interactive/20… Image
”In a backlash to historic voter turnout, and grounded in a rash of baseless and racist allegations of voter fraud, legislators have introduced well over four times the number of bills to restrict voting access as compared to roughly this time last year.” brennancenter.org/our-work/resea… Image
”Thirty-three states have introduced, prefiled, or carried over 165 restrictive bills this year (as compared to 35 such bills in fifteen states on February 3, 2020).” brennancenter.org/our-work/resea…

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More from @owasow

May 30, 2023
New study finds “strong evidence that BLM protests were associated with an increased likelihood of voting for the 2020 Democratic candidate.” Further, this effect was “concentrated among less contentious protest events (with arrests, injury, or violence).” tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… ImageImageImage
Study of BLM also uses weather and commute times to address possible unobserved factors as protests more likely “when weather is good and built environment favors local gatherings… factors likely to impact variation in protests but not Democratic voting.” tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.108… ImageImageImage
At both county- and individual-level, study finds “strong support for hypothesis BLM protest intensity was associated with greater support for Biden. Evidence on contentious protest is mixed, with a significant negative effect in county analysis but no relationship in survey.” Image
Read 4 tweets
Feb 27, 2023
A strange and ahistorical op-ed on SF's ills that spends a precious paragraph on dangers of ranked choice voting but has nothing to say about what policy changes are needed to build more housing, an issue that long precedes current “one party rule.” nytimes.com/2023/02/26/opi…
A century ago, Bay Area was ground zero for the development of single family zoning as a method to enforce racial segregation in housing.
California’s housing crisis is the result of bad policy over decades on both left and right but counter-mobilization against integrated neighborhoods and fair housing laws was not championed by liberals.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 2, 2023
Has any region offered a Pay-to-NIMBY option? Like a surtax for non-development?

“The privilege of vetoing virtually any housing in rich neighborhoods is so ingrained in American culture that many people believe it is one of their inalienable rights.” sfchronicle.com/opinion/openfo…
Idea is to shift NIMBYism debates from “rights” to privileges. Imagine upzoning a whole city but with option for any neighborhood to pay an ongoing lower-upzone surtax. Wealthier neighborhoods then pay price for NIMBYism in a way that might also subsidize more affordable housing.
Shifting from property taxes to land value tax would be simpler and more efficient than “NIMBYism surtax” but I’m trying to imagine what might reduce conflict within current system and between city-level pushes to upzone and neighborhood-level opposition. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_valu…
Read 4 tweets
Jan 7, 2023
“It seemed absolutely crazy. The idea that an Iowa housewife, equipped with the cutting-edge medical tool known as Google Images, would make a medical discovery about a pro athlete who sees doctors and athletic trainers as part of her job?” propublica.org/article/muscul… Image
For more about Jill Viles, follow her at @jillviles or see diyscientist.blog

Also, if you liked this piece, I recommend following @DavidEpstein.
For more on sports and genetics, nature versus nurture and other hot debates on the science of performance (10,000 hours?), see @DavidEpstein’s book The Sports Gene. The Guardian called it “dazzling and illuminating.” amazon.com/Sports-Gene-Ma…
Read 4 tweets
Dec 31, 2022
Our immune systems are not so much like armies as traffic cops. When we’re well, past infections often linger but are kept in check. As thread shows, chronic illnesses—like ME/CFS and Long Covid—are plausibly persistent, harmful infections that remain hard to detect and suppress.
Long term infections can also result in damage to tissues which may then be diagnosed as a new illness like cervical instability. @jenbrea notes “infection is actually one risk factor of cervical damage that has the most support in the medical literature.” jenbrea.medium.com/how-infection-…
“Compression, stretch, or deformation of nerve tissue can cause low blood flow to the brain and spinal cord that results in a host of downstream metabolic consequences like low oxygen, a switch to anaerobic metabolism, increased lactate, and inflammation.” jenbrea.medium.com/how-infection-…
Read 4 tweets
Dec 29, 2022
Just successfully converted a pdf and OCR’d two paper book chapters to machine readable plain text. Then fed text to Amazon’s Polly service and now have good-enough “audiobooks.” Did it for myself but realize one day could be offered to class like podcast with weekly “episodes.”
Listen to Narrative in Political Science by Molly Patterson and Kristen Renwick Monroe as read by one of Amazon Polly’s British female voices (I’m not sure if British voices are actually better than US or if foreign dialectic just seems less robotic). dropbox.com/s/uwpikkyzz3cg…
Pre-processing pdf or OCR’d text is time consuming and doesn’t really save time. For text-to-voice reading to be pleasant, it’s helpful to clean things like hyphens vs m-dashes, remove footnote numbers, correct some garbled text, etc. Some of this can be automated but not all.
Read 4 tweets

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