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Stockifi | Investors का दोस्त

@stockifiabhijit

Dec 21

India’s wealth is dying silently.

FDs + Savings Accounts = ₹170 Lakh Crore

Mutual Funds + LIC + NPS + Others = ₹140 Lakh Crore

And yet, the majority still believe FDs are the safest bet.

But here’s the truth no bank will ever tell you.
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Let’s run the real numbers.

Average FD return today = 6.5%
Average inflation = 5.9%

Your real return = 0.6%

That’s before taxes.

After tax? Most FDs give you negative real returns.

You're not growing money.
You're paying the system to hold it.

Why do We love FDs then?

Because for decades, they worked.

In 1995 – FD returns were 12-14%
Inflation was 8%
You got a 4-6% real return.

That gap is gone now.

Today, your money isn’t compounding. It’s shrinking with interest.

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Stockifi | Investors का दोस्त

@stockifiabhijit

Dec 19

Tata has 29 listed companies.
Adani has 10.
Bajaj has 6.
All under the same group name.

This structure often kills value.
80% of group companies globally trade at a discount.

But post-demerger?
Valuations can jump 30–60% within a year.

A thread on India’s great demerger wave:

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For decades, India’s biggest groups ran like empires.

One parent. Dozens of businesses.
All controlled under one umbrella.

It gave power, control, and stability.

But in stock markets? It created something dangerous:

Conglomerate Discount.

What’s a Conglomerate Discount?

Let’s say a business group has:

● ₹40,000 Cr in Steel
● ₹30,000 Cr in Power
● ₹30,000 Cr in Chemicals

Total: ₹1 Lakh Cr in value.

But the stock market says:
“Too complicated. Hard to value. Let’s just price you at ₹60,000 Cr.”

This is the conglomerate discount — when the whole is worth less than the sum of its parts.

Why does this happen?

Because investors hate complexity.

When one company runs 10 businesses:

● You can’t benchmark it easily
● You don’t know what’s dragging what
● Capital gets misallocated
● Profitable arms fund weaker ones
● Governance gets murky

So the market punishes it.

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Stockifi | Investors का दोस्त

@stockifiabhijit

Dec 18

India’s Debt-to-GDP ratio jumped to >60% during Covid.

That’s the highest in decades.
Enough to alarm global investors.

Now, it’s dropping

But What is Debt-to-GDP?

Imagine India as a working-class citizen:

• Your yearly income = GDP
• Your total loan balance = National debt
• Debt-to-GDP = Loan burden compared to earning power

If your income grows faster than your debt → you're safer.
If your debt grows faster than your income → you're trapped.

That’s exactly what happened during COVID.

Pre-COVID: Things were calm

Debt was growing, yes—but GDP was growing faster.

So the debt ratio was manageable.

Markets had confidence. Investors stayed calm.

But then came 2020.

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Covid: Debt-to-GDP crossed 60%

India had to spend more (healthcare, relief packages) while earning less (GDP collapsed).

It’s like taking a huge personal loan when you’ve lost your job.

Result?

Debt-to-GDP ratio exploded. Above 60%. And global rating agencies started watching.

Post-Covid: Slow fix, big headache

Now that the economy is recovering, the govt is trying to walk a tightrope:

• Control new borrowings
• Keep GDP growing
• Avoid scaring investors
• While still spending on infra + welfare

Tricky, right?

That’s why FY26 matters.

So why is the Govt suddenly obsessed with this now?

Because of 3 invisible pressure points:

1. Rising Interest Payments = Budget is getting squeezed

In 2024, nearly 20% of govt revenue went into just paying interest on loans.

Not roads. Not hospitals. Just interest.

If this continues, we’ll be spending more on EMIs than on development.

That’s unsustainable.

Read 10 tweets

Stockifi | Investors का दोस्त

@stockifiabhijit

Dec 15

How Ratan Tata arranged ₹615 Crores overnight after a scam?

In the late 1990s, Tata Finance was a trusted name.

It wasn’t just another NBFC.
It was backed by the Tata legacy, run by Harvard-trained minds, and had deposits of ₹875 crores from 4 lakh Indians.

But in 2001, that trust was shattered as Tata Finance lost ₹525 crores in a scam.
Depositors panicked.

Ratan Tata arranged ₹615 crores overnight.

The full story of how he did it
And how it saved the Tata name forever:

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At the heart of the collapse: a man named Dilip Pendse.

He was the Managing Director.
A finance wizard.
And a protégé of Ratan Tata himself.

But he made one move that turned the Tata empire into a crisis overnight.

Pendse funnelled ₹525 crores from Tata Finance into:

● Loans to its own affiliate
● Stock market bets under fake accounts
● Personal profit-seeking trades

Everything crashed.

When the markets fell, the money evaporated.
Depositors’ savings were gone.

The scam leaked to the media.

Suddenly, the name Tata—a brand associated with ethics for over a century—was on the front page for the wrong reasons.

For the first time, Ratan Tata’s reputation was on the line.

At this point, most corporates would hide behind:

● Legal battles
● "We are not liable" clauses
● Decade-long court cases

But Ratan Tata did something that stunned everyone.

Read 8 tweets

Stockifi | Investors का दोस्त

@stockifiabhijit

Dec 13

In 2009, India had just 0.9 hospital beds per 1,000 people.
Even today, after 15 years of growth…

We're only at 1.3.

Compare that to:
● China: 4.3
● Germany: 8.0
● Global average: 3+

India’s hospital sector is now worth ₹8.2 lakh crore (~$99B).
By 2032, it will nearly double to ₹16 lakh crore (~$194B).

But this isn’t a typical consumer story.

This is about:
● Medical tourism
● Insurance disruption
● Urban healthcare goldmines
● Strategic monopolies

Let’s break it down
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1. Hospitals are not beds. They’re monopolies in disguise.

Unlike a mall or a restaurant, a top hospital builds trust, habit and lock-in.

Once a family picks Fortis, Apollo, or Manipal — they return again and again.

And in metros? There’s often only 2-3 dominant players.

That’s why margins are so juicy.

2. Richer India = Sicker India = Profitable Hospitals

Sounds dark. But it’s real.

As income rises:
● Lifestyle diseases explode
● People seek private healthcare
● Insurance penetration rises

Which means: once a bed is built, demand is guaranteed.

That’s why listed hospitals are in no rush to expand blindly.

3. Hospital stocks look boring… until they don’t

Since COVID:
● Max Healthcare: 4x
● Apollo Hospitals: 3.2x
● Fortis: 2.5x

This is not an IT boom.
It’s a slow, steady, defensive uptrend driven by rising average revenue per occupied bed (ARPOB).

In other words: richer patients, better margins.

4. Insurance is the rocket fuel

Out-of-pocket medical spending is falling.

But insurance-funded procedures? Exploding.

Why this matters:
● Insurance = faster hospital payments
● More patients opt for elective surgeries
● Hospitals upsell better services

Less billing tension. More repeat cash flow.

Read 7 tweets

Stockifi | Investors का दोस्त

@stockifiabhijit

Dec 12

What just happened?

A US law just changed the future of Indian pharma forever.
The US Biosecure Act has now become law.

India’s top pharma exporters could see an outsized boom and China’s biggest players are about to get cut off.

And it’s about to shift billions of dollars in pharma contracts from Chinese players to Indian companies, especially in the CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organisation) space.

But… what is a CDMO?

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A CDMO is like a pharma factory-for-hire.

Big drug companies (like Pfizer, J&J, Merck) outsource R&D and manufacturing of medicines to CDMOs.

Why? Because it’s cheaper, faster, and scalable.

India is really good at this. China is even bigger.

But now… China just got blacklisted.

Here’s why this is HUGE

The US Biosecure Act bars American government agencies (like the Department of Defense or NIH) from working with companies that:

Have ties to the Chinese military or surveillance state

Are on US watchlists

Pose a threat to “biosecurity”

Guess which companies got named?

These 5 Chinese giants just got hit

WuXi AppTec

WuXi Biologics

BGI Group

MGI Tech

Complete Genomics

These aren’t small players.
They’re the backbone of China’s pharma services industry.

WuXi alone worked with 14 of the top 20 global pharma firms.

Now? They’re out.

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