THIS IS THE MOST INTERESTING MOMENT FOR THE ECONOMY I'VE SEEN IN MY CAREER

In today's @markets newsletter, I wrote about how this is the first time in my career, it's seemed like there was potential for the economy to go in a new trajectory bloomberg.com/account/newsle…
@markets Between the actual economic conditions on the ground, the emerging political consensus, and the shift in the intellectual debate over the last decade, this is the first time it's felt like there's potential to break out of the long rut of slow growth, low rates etc.
@nancook @MarioDParker Good chart here from Adam, on aspect of household balance sheet conditions. Every quintile of the economy currently has more cash on hand than they did pre-crisis. Not your typical situation coming out of a downturn
Anyway! Sign up for the newsletter here. Might write something about the Fed and Bitcoin tomorrow. Or maybe about the recovery in NYC bloomberg.com/account/newsle…
Yep, increasingly the entire fiscal policy debate is happening on MMTers terms.
Just to add onto the thread, this is exactly what makes this moment different. The fact that Bernie Sanders and Goldman Sachs are roughly on the same page on macro

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More from @TheStalwart

8 Feb
BREAKING: Bitcoin soaring more after $TSLA announces that it's bought $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin and that it will likely, at some point, accept Bitcoin as payment for cars. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
I almost put a line in here this morning about how the only people that really have garnered a ton of trust these days are Elon & Cathie & Chamath & Satoshi
Anyway. Good timing for today's episode
Read 4 tweets
22 Jan
I disagree with the premise of this @Noahpinion piece.

He asks: when will US gov borrowing lead to a problem/hyperinflation. And then says nobody knows.

But IMO the very question itself wrong, and the reason is found right here in the piece itself... noahpinion.substack.com/p/no-one-knows…
@Noahpinion Hyperinflation results from some kind of regime change, societal disruption, war, government legitimacy collapse etc.

That could happen in the US at some point! Government stability isn't looking great these days. But it's a very separate thing than debt or deficit levels.
Of course it's going to be tough to model when people lose faith in the US government. But it doesn't imply, from that, that debt/deficit levels are going to be a useful guide to when that is.

And in the meantime, worrying about "the debt' is likely to lead to bad policy.
Read 8 tweets
22 Jan
OMG $GME is up 35% now! bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
40%!!!!
MY GOD

*GAMESTOP EXTENDS GAINS, UP 50%, HIGHEST INTRADAY EVER
Read 8 tweets
12 Jan
Something to remember is that the objective of Fed policy here is not to keep yields low. The objective is to keep yields lower than they otherwise would have been, given the same set of macro and market conditions had they existed under a different policy regime.
That may seem like a minor distinction, but I don't think it is. Rising rates don't undermine the agenda per se. What's problematic is if rates rise in such a way that suggests the market is anticipating policy hikes sooner than what the Fed has outlined is appropriate.
There was an egregious mismatch coming out of the Great Financial Crisis, whereby markets were pricing in rate hikes as soon as Q4 2009 at one point (lol) because investors were operating on an outdated playbook.
Read 4 tweets
5 Jan
I think a lot of the discussions about Central Bank Digital Currencies or households having checking accounts at the Federal Reserve end up confusing political problems for technical ones.
We all know there's better ways to deliver counter-cyclical macro policy and that neither QE nor rate policy nor hoping for a good one-off stimulus bill are great ways to revive the economy after a downturn.
The question is, do political leaders want to establish standing facilities that get money to households in a downturn, or do they prefer the existing system, where recessions are opportunities to weaken labor, and elected officials retain the discretion to act or not.
Read 4 tweets
24 Dec 20
The new Odd Lots is out and it’s a Christmas gift to Bitcoin Twitter...

@tracyalloway and I finally had on @michael_saylor, the CEO of $MSTR, who over the course of 2020, turned his software company into an almost pure Bitcoin play bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
We talked about

- what the heck is $MSTR
- How his employees feel about having their fate now tied to Bitcoin
- his view on the USD, Fed, and inflation statistics
- why people lent $MSTR money to buy Bitcoin
- What he’ll do if it hits $100k
On that last point, with the interview, @tracyalloway and I have secured I our invites to @michael_saylor’s yacht party
Read 4 tweets

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