Performance is a complex function of ability and psychology.
Ability is cumulative - it adds on prior base like your belly fat 🥳
It is like a Fixed Deposit....keeps accumulating.
Psychology is cyclical. It meanders from low (lower than your ability justifies/underconfidence) to high (higher than your ability justifies/overconfidence)
Positive feedback or performance boosts your morale. This raises your future performances, leading to more success. Till you reach a stage of overconfidence in your abilities and meet failure.
The failure lowers your confidence. This creates doubts & fear, which impacts your future performance. Successive failures result in confidence plummeting, till your ability causes law of averages to kick in and provide some morale boosting success.
So, as you can see, we tend to gyrate between a positive virtuous loop of success-high confidence-success and a vicious loop of failure-low confidence-failure.
(5/10)
There are times when you caught in the vicious web of low confidence. Your physiology is closely associated with how you feel. When you feel low, you don't feel like doing anything. You feel like just crashing onto your bed.
How to catapult from the vicious web to the virtuous loop?
You can fool yourself into a virtuous loop by inducing small victories. Create small challenges & win!
Sprint hard
Lift weights
Play a game against a weak opponent
Read an uplifting book
Watch a movie
(7/10)
During childhood days, I used to play TT with my younger brother on our dining table. There were times, when I used to lose some critical points deliberately to pull him out of a demoralising rut. Often, he used to start hitting winners again to the extent that...
he started dominating games and I started losing. The proverbial tables were often turned, just by losing some critical points!
Here's the thing:
Treat "I don't feel like doing anything" as a signal that you are in a spiralling vicious web of low confidence. Break out of the web by inducing small wins. Exercise, sprinting & lifting weights is one of the simplest options, in my humble opinion.
(End)
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Learning new skills or improving existing skill levels involves going through a stage of Liminality - you're either here nor there!
This stage is very unsettling. There are several behavioural resistances - questioning the very necessity of doing that, or question the methods.
Our brain is very capable, much more than we can imagine. It's just that the sub conscious part of the brain is tuned to be metabolically efficient...and it achieves the efficiency by using shortcuts.
Here's a great characteristic of the brain:
While it creates acute resistance to change or new pattern, but if it left with no choice, it moves to the outer orbit. It expands its abilities and it does that more and faster than you expect.
A complex combination (Sum is bigger than the parts) of underlying fundamentals and market expectations of fundamentals, keep manifesting in trends.
These trends unfold in various time frames.
In each of these time frames, excesses get built as the trends overrun their course...correction or reversion to mean ensues.
1) This pattern repeats itself again and again. 2) There are patterns playing with larger patterns. This is the multi layered fractal nature of this behaviour. There could be a trend in a higher time frame, but a correction in lower, or vice versa.
Leverage & Buffett:
In the investor circle, one of the key criteria for scouting a good company is "zero debt". And why not, after all over leverage is a leading cause of corporate ruin.
Let's step back and analyse this...
Right since the discovery of the wheel to all the gadgets we use today, mankind has used leverage. Financial leverage is just a subset of this.
A leverage is a force multiplier that gives either: 1) efficiency, by enhancing the output or, 2) convenience, by reducing the toil
Layer 1 - Losing fat by "burning calories" is a fallacy.
A cup of ice cream gives you more calories that a few days of morning walk can't burn!
You lose fat at the entry gate, not the exit window - by calorie restriction, not burning.
Layer 2 - Calorie restriction by restricting your diet size is again a fallacy. Your physiology has evolved by billions of iterations, into a insatiable eating machines. We're designed to eat as much as we can. Curbing the natural, atavistic instincts is undesirable.
Calorie restriction is achieved by two thing - 1) Cutting the eating window, through Intermittent Fasting. Rather than restricting meal size, restrict the hours when you encounter food. Eat as much as you can, during that window only.
The best way to create an impact, in an otherwise ordinary statement!
By using Superlative degree - the most, the only, the biggest, the biggest, the smartest, the stupidest etc
Ordinary Statement:
Patience (or risk management, or process, or second order thinking, or passion etc) is an important characteristic of a good investor. It, along with many other characteristics, contribute to the emergence of a successful investor.
Impactful Statement:
The trait that separates great investor from an ordinary is patience.
Success in investing is possible only through patience
The most difficult but extremely rewarding trait in long term investing is patience.
What separate you from Buffett...patience!
😃
Evolution - random variations, most of which average out, while some advantageous ones self-reinforce in a nondeterministic, unpredictable and path dependent manner.
Somewhere down the line, a minor difference separated us from our closest cousin, Chimpanzee.
"We are, to a 98% approximation,
chimpanzees...chimpanzees are only 97% gorillas
[but are 98% human.
Chimpanzees are closer to humans than they are to gorillas." Matt Ridley, Genome
"If you took two plastacene amoebae and turned one into a chimpanzee and the other into a human being, almost all the changes you would make would be the same. Both would need thirty-two teeth, five fingers, two eyes, four limbs and a liver...