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Tony Yates Profile picture
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14 Feb, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Taking the 10 year view this is ten lots of one year costs coming from the fact that because of trade gravity we can’t replace EU trade with that from farther away countries. Thanks.
I might compile a thread of pro Brexit faux big picture long termism. Seem to remember Rees Mogg taking the 50 year view.
Someone already made a start on this: theguardian.com/politics/short…
100 years seems to be the max so far. Anything > than that?

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Tony Yates Profile picture
14 Feb
This article doesn't quite make the point clearly enough IMO. The contention is that if you get close enough to the best policy, you can improve both economic and health outcomes. theguardian.com/world/2021/feb…
In which case the 'price of a life' - while an interesting and difficult convsersation we have all the time - is not relevant.
What the article does not dwell on is the counterfactual path for the *economy* if the virus were to be let loose. Much of the econometric research shows that the major portion of the 'damage' is done by the virus, not lockdown restrictions.
Read 25 tweets
Tony Yates Profile picture
8 Feb
He dabbed on the brakes not once, but three times. And yet he still failed to stop and crashed. Explain that Chris!
Moments like that tilt me towards the ‘stupid, not lying’ theory.
There are a lot of subtleties in mastering the formal techniques used to study the control of large systems. Optimal control with imperfect lagged data, with sentient agents forming expectations over your actions, with blunt, partially responsive instruments....
Read 5 tweets
Tony Yates Profile picture
7 Feb
Any health economists there know the best discussion of the optimality or otherwise of the NICE valuations for a life year?
As an outsider, I'd view these as uninformative for decisions about the resources to spend on a new health challenge.
A new condition, one that threatens our ability to treat existing conditions, might raise the point at which marginal benefits and marginal costs are equated.
Read 6 tweets
Tony Yates Profile picture
6 Feb
Thought provoking. Not sure what I make of it:
1. I don't have a clear view yet a) how permanent a feature the actual disease will be in our lives, and, even if it is basically tamed, b) what the legacy would be anyway.
2. One question is 'what is a rational and just response to the challenge posed by the post covid era, whatever that turns out to be?'. Another is: how do you win elections?
Read 5 tweets
Tony Yates Profile picture
6 Feb
I don't understand worries about the stimulus package causing overheating emanating from the apex of macro.

1. overheating, if it were to happen, is better than underheating in these circumstances.

2. we know what to do to stop overheating and we have the instruments.
Central banks can raise interest rates from their floors. They can sell securities that they bought recently, bloating their balance sheets. Automatic stabilizers will kick in [increased tax revenues; lower spending on benefits].
There are debates to be had about how to maximize the welfare from a given $. But I don't see a serious case for worrying about overheating. Not after 12 years trapped at the zero bound.
Read 15 tweets
Tony Yates Profile picture
1 Feb
The Tory/lockdown sceptic worry for kids' education during the lockdown stirs a voice inside my head 'what exactly were you arguing as the Coalition implemented its austerity plans that impacted on education spending?'
The concern from the same camp about this affecting poor kids most, and exaggerating educational inequality, makes me wonder what they think luxuriantly funded private schools all the time, pandemic or no, are doing. Is that level of educational inequality just about right?
Also not sure about what is being envisaged: allowing R to go >1 temporarily, expecting the vaccination program to subsequently suppress to <1, accepting the burst of deaths and incapacities in the meantime, hoping that the viral spread doesn't collapse schooling in the process?
Read 9 tweets

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