1/x For China, 2021 is a pivotal year on climate. Upcoming Five Year Plan, Belt & Road updates, new carbon trading market, & pandemic recovery have huge implications for global emissions. So far, the year isn't off to a good start -- let's break it down qz.com/1971281/the-pr…
2/x In late Jan., central gov. enviro investigators published an unusually scathing public critique of colleagues in the energy planning agency, for their ongoing permitting of new coal plants, blaming the agency's “deteriorated political ecology” (an allusion to corruption)
3/x Days later, the country launched its much-anticipated carbon trading market, which in theory should incentivize a transition away from coal-fired power plants. But as @laurimyllyvirta explains, the market over-allocates carbon permits in a way that makes it toothless.
4/x And although China's pandemic stimulus spending has favored clean energy ($28bn so far), the early return of industrial activity made China the only country to see its emissions increase in 2020. 
5/x there are other systemic problems, incl. that China finances one-quarter of the coal projects underway outside its borders & that its pandemic recovery plan is likely to rely on a lot of emissions-intensive infrastructure building
6/x The big opportunity to pivot will be the 14th Five Year Plan, which @hanchennrdc calls “the most consequential thing to happen in the next year for the global climate," which could include a faster track for decarbonization, new net zero targets for state companies, etc
7/x China's coal-reliant economy is "a very big ship to turn," @ODIdev's Nadin says. But Xi is very keen to retain China's edge in the clean energy market, & wants to be seen as a climate partner to Biden. So while China still isn't on track, there's reason to be optimistic.
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