Reading between the lines of the very limited info coming out of @ERCOT_ISO, it sounds like they may well expect substantial capacity restoration not to come until generating stations see full thaw from the weather, which could be Friday or Saturday.
I say this because most info about the outage focuses on generators knocked offline by weather. Not clear whether that's just freezing temps or ice and snow. But there's no discussion of how generators will come back during freeze, and lots of warning about further cold weather.
So ... it sure sounds like the @ERCOT_ISO is saying its hands are largely tied until weather improves, which I imagine means gets and stays substantially enough above freezing for equipment to unfreeze and perhaps be repaired. And here's the forecast.
Which is one reason I don't put much stock in the highly vague, noncommittal claims from @austinenergy and @ERCOT_ISO since yesterday that power restoration is maybe sort of potentially coming in a few hours (but also maybe not).
This sure sounds like outages will continue through the weekend.

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More from @AriSchulman

16 Feb
Totally unsurprising that they're extending the predicted outage. The info provided has offered little reason to support the prediction that power would come back on this afternoon — and not much reason to be confident it'll be back tomorrow either.
Most of the communications coming out of @austinenergy and @ERCOT_ISO are simple expectations-management, buck-passing, and obfuscation. No meaningful info on when residents might have power again.
It's almost inevitable now that some of the millions of Texans without heat will die in their homes. @ERCOT_ISO and local utilities offered no warning this might happen and continue to play a "could be back on soon, maybe" game instead of leveling about how bad it may yet get.
Read 7 tweets
16 Feb
As hundreds of thousands of Austin residents are going on their 30th hour without power during the second or third coldest stretch of weather in recorded history, some questions for @austinenergy and @ERCOT_ISO.
Outages were originally said to be rolling, from 10-40 minutes. Many are on day 2. The last estimate, from yesterday, vaguely says outages "may last" through Tue afternoon.

What is this based on and why should residents have more confidence in it than the last estimate?
Specifically: The reason stated for the outages is record demand (seemingly from people heating their homes) coupled with cold weather taking generation sites offline. One or both of those things has to change for power to come back this afternoon. Which do you expect it to be?
Read 12 tweets
20 Nov 20
I'll get as close to this as I can, but anyway, here's a useful example of how to drive underground the risk-taking behavior most everyone is doing and get them to not even bother anymore with managing it.
There's a way to talk about pandemic behavior as a referendum on other people's souls, and there's a way talk about it as seeking the good where the perfect is not achievable. A lot of risky pandemic behavior is driven by rebellion against the first, not incidentally.
These things are not unrelated; the pandemic most assuredly is a referendum on our souls. But the aim of public health messaging must be establishing the trust necessary to achieve pragmatic goals. Salvation is below their pay grade.
Read 4 tweets
20 Nov 20
Real talk: A lot of people will not cancel Thanksgiving, and insisting that people must sets up those who decide to proceed for a full ah-screw-it. Better to encourage that those who do gather open windows, gather outside if weather permits, and limit visits with older relatives.
I'll put cards on the table and say that I am gathering with my immediate family for Thanksgiving. We're all getting Covid tests before we arrive.
Again — I think it's good to continue talking up the wisdom of not gathering for Thanksgiving at all. But don't stake your plan on everyone adhering to it; accept and engage with those who won't.
Read 5 tweets
30 Sep 20
This is a falsehood. Scientists did not do a series of crash studies in two weeks in March that upended decades of research. Rather, the prudential judgment about fragmentary information changed. This here is why the public does not trust experts: newrepublic.com/article/158058…
This is largely the same lie Frieden's CDC told the public in 2014, when it claimed that masks were not necessary to protect health care workers from Ebola, then reversed its stance after a nurse caught Ebola from her patient, but claimed it didn't. thenewatlantis.com/publications/t…
During both Ebola and early Covid, we were told by various public health officials that not only was wearing masks not necessary, it was counterproductive because it would falsely scare people — and the *real* contagions were fear, misinformation, and xenophobia.
Read 5 tweets
13 Jul 20
The reported Fauci oppo memo has me feeling good about my argument here that our culture knows only two ways to relate to expertise — deference or defiance — and that this treats experts as having more political power than they should: newrepublic.com/article/158058…
If you have to release an oppo dump on your own scientific advisor, it means you have de facto given him the power of a rival political opponent, when instead if you don't like his advice you could just replace him or ignore him. It's a nice gift for Fauci.
To be clear, I believe Fauci, if hardly infallible, has a strong record during the pandemic and the WH should continue to take his advice seriously. But their attempt to publicly undermine the credibility of one of their own top advisors while keeping him on staff is cowardly.
Read 6 tweets

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