Thread by @DavidKleimann

Some thoughts on the #EUTradeReview Annex on WTO reform that was released yesterday by @trade_eu. 🧵 bit.ly/2Ncrt4o

It reflects EU global governance leadership in action, quite clearly occupying large parts of the space the Trump administration has relinquished. 1/14

It's a sincere and pragmatic initiative aimed at tackling reform pressures that have built up since the collapse of the Doha Round until the demise of the AB, with an increasingly bold European signature. 2/14

Much of the document embeds already existing initiatives and work done on the ground into a coherent narrative with a clear vision for the future and purpose of the WTO. 3/14

This update was necessary given the changing political landscape, with a now slightly brighter prospect for multilateral and plurilateral cooperation. It's a clear EU commitment to tangible investments into the system and an offer to the US to lead side by side. 4/14

The Commission has gone out of its way to align its analysis w the US, naming CN more explicitly than ever as cause of the current crisis & offering solutions that systematically confront CN state capitalist practices, not w-out warning of the dangers of (US-CN) polarization 5/14

At the same time, the communication also establishes very clear expectations vis-a-vis the Biden administration and generates pressure on the US to engage and deliver in the negotiation process leading up to #MC12. 6/14

This is most visible in the area of DS reform, which is where Brussels demands a down-payment from Washington in form of a front-loaded US commitment to and engagement in AB reform negotiations. 7/14

The communication leaves no doubt that the Commission expects a resolution of the AB crisis before WTO negotiations on new rules and market access can be concluded. It is remarkable though to what extent the Commission now officially… 8/14

…compromises on earlier positions on DS reform to find an acceptable middle-ground with pretty specific and seemingly far-reaching offers on major sticking points. On the other hand… 9/14

…these 'only' reflect the Walker-principles. This cannot be surprising in that it is unclear what the Tai team wants to achieve on that front. There are consistent rumors from within the Brussels bubble that the Commission is leaving space for maneuver for talks with USTR. 10/14

The new line on the AB strikes me as the most important new element, w the multilateralization of trilateral talks w the US & Japan coming in second, third going to new realism on S&D treatment w hopes that the EU’s initiative on environment could be a winner in the future. 11/14

Overall, pragmatism wins over dogmatism here. The document is successful in establishing clear and achievable expectations, benchmarks, and target deliverables to measure success by the time #MC12 takes place. 12/14

It is stripped of past naivete and mere lip-service to multilateralism, calling for a reorientation of S&D treatment obsessed WTO membership and tangible investments into a system under threat. 13/14

The communication places the ball into the court of other major members, most immediately the US, but more substantially China and other emerged economies in the mid-term. 14/14

#BonusTweet: The new EU strategy on WTO reform could be a real game changer in that it may lead the way to a first successful MC in a long time, or make for a prologue to even greater divisions among the major economic powers if pragmatic expectations are largely frustrated *end*