by choosing to hide and lie about few dozen casualties of a comparatively small fight, cheen has shown weakness and some peculiar facets of their society. the recruits carrying the emperors sword were surely not the upper middle class kids of the coast but rural folks ... 1/n
rural lads who in any country tend to be hardy and up for any fight. india or usa do not shy away from fairly reporting casualties quite quickly, unpleasant as the news is - the govt is trusted on this, and media is open ... 2/n
this despite the US per capita being a very rich country but militarized social attitudes and deep state and while there is truimphalist/exceptionalist rhetoric they do not downplay their enemies infact up-play it. ..India is anyway very modest even about strengths .. 3/n
cheen has 1-child issue of survivors from any calamity, 1-party rule that pegs itself to absolute order and growth curve, and a media show carefully run to do the truimphalist rhetoric and deride india as weak, pathetic & powerless..though they grudgingly admit usa power 4/n
so while their society may be ok with manpower losses in a fight with the US, admission of any loss or setback however minor against India who they have run down for decades is a no-go area. which means they will be wary about unpredictable contact battles once it starts...5/n
nationalist youth on social media fed on compulsory political edu since tiananmen will demand a cycle of escalation which peking may feel unwise. India is the biggest "barbarian" on its desert-jungle-steppe rim around middle kingdom. defiant and refuses to pay tribute anymore 6/n
whatever mental cage they had locked indian foreign policy apparatus since 1962 has collapsed. field is wide open now for the "barbarians" from all sides to take a cue and start probing the resolve of the middle kingdom. avalanches always start with one cough or slip...7/n
such bagawat/a bushfire cannot be allowed to burn credibility of the leadership. if current "controlled admissions" do not bury whole episode & ASEAN does not remain suitably shivering & cowed down, emperor will have to set Pak on us or get back in to "teach india its place" 8/n
Pak being pak, the most slippery eel in the sea , will do nothing of risking its blood for the emperor, which means the emperors legions will have to invade "germania" again to teach the "barbarians" another lesson. this time we need to be fully ready - teutoborg forest. 🎃
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