Yet more good news on the Pfizer vaccine, showing even higher effectiveness 14 days after 2nd dose. Effectiveness:

95.8% at preventing infection
98% at preventing symptoms
98.9% at preventing hospitalisations
99.2% at stopping serious disease
98.9% at preventing death
This new data from Israel's Health Ministry, published a few minutes ago, is SO good that I'm actually a little suspicious of it. Could be a function of the short dosing interval giving a few weeks of very high antibodies?
Alternatively, there could be some herd effects starting to happen in mostly-vaccinated populations compared to towns with low numbers of vaccinated people.
For people asking me: I'm not a medical expect, but I don't expect to see results this strong for the Astrazeneca vaccine. The AZ vaccine is great. The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines look like they're miracles.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Health Ministry sources are briefing that these numbers should be "taken with an asterisk" and are likely to change as data comes in. One particular question raised was whether ethnic and socioeconomic factors were included in building the control group.

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More from @ariehkovler

18 Feb
Pfizer vaccine estimated 89.5% effective at preventing coronavirus INFECTIONS, whether symptomatic or not, according to new pre-print study conducted by Pfizer and Israel's Health Ministry. This would point to a huge cut in transmission.
Other real-world outcomes: the study shows:

94% effectiveness against symptomatic Covid-19
93.5% effectiveness against hospitalisation
94% effectiveness against severe and critical hospitalisation
93% against death
The full paper is in this thread by @Nadav_Eyal. You can just look at the attachments to his tweets, no need to read Hebrew.
Read 4 tweets
17 Feb
This is worth a read and a lot of it rings true. It's more visible in Hebrew, where written language is starkly different to spoken and, yes, radio and TV newscasters speak like written letters, not like oral talkers @zeynep zeynep.substack.com/p/the-clubhous…
@zeynep I came to Twitter with most of a lifetime of chatroom and IM culture, which are absolutely oral psychodynamics, but unlike actual speaking you have time to think, consider, self-edit too.
@zeynep So yeah, Twitter fits into the oral culture. But, at least for me, removing ephemerality is a big part of the point too. If Tweets disappeared after a week or even a year, I don't think I'd be here.
Read 6 tweets
17 Feb
CISA, the FBI and the Treasury Dept are warning about North Korean Bitcoin-stealing malware known as AppleJeus, which has been posing as cryptocurrency trading platforms since 2018. Culprit is DPRK's Lazarus Group APT us-cert.cisa.gov/ncas/alerts/aa…
Ah, so I was wrong. This IS what the big announcement is about today. DoJ indicted North Koerean hackers who stole $1.3 BILLION in cash and cryptocurrency over recent years. That's an enormous amount.

cnbc.com/2021/02/17/nor…
The details here are mind-blowing. Cyber-heists from banks by hacking into the SWIFT system, ATM hacks, ransomware, crypto theft, and running their own dodgy ICO to help North Korea take over shipping companies.
Read 7 tweets
17 Feb
Yet more good vaccine data: Israel's Maccabi HMO finds >95% effectiveness of the Pfizer coronavirus vaccine. Of 602k fully-vaccinated people, only 608 tested positive for the virus (0.1%), compared to 20,621 cases in the control group of 528k people (3.9%) over the same period.
Of the 608 cases among the fully vaccinated (>7 days from second dose), only 21 were hospitalised, of which 7 were considered 'serious'. Most of the 608 cases had either mild symptoms or none at all.
Note that the primary measure is different from the Pfizer study, which looked for symptomatic disease. Maccabi's effectiveness data counts all positive tests, including asymptomatic positives, in both groups.
Read 6 tweets
15 Feb
So there's a Telegram channel that seems to be trying to pass itself off as QAnon's "Q". The channel's about a week old and has more than 50k subscribers already.
The "Q" group was promoted in several popular QAnon channels back before it had any posts (maybe it had one or two), which suggests someone is trying to push it.
The actual content it's posting is, frankly, a bit crap. blushy-smile Emojis? Yup, this is clearly a legit super-sekkrit military insider moving to take down the Deep State.
Read 6 tweets
15 Feb
Great thread. There was a point in Trump's term where there was a serious debate about constraining the powers of the presidency. What happened to that debate?
1. Congress should legislate against Presidents owning businesses that get foreign gifts, making explicit the Emoluments Clause.
2. Congress should take back or curtail a lot of the powers it's given to the Presidency, especially the emergency powers detailed in this @lizagoitein article theatlantic.com/magazine/archi…
Read 10 tweets

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