“The findings show that covid-19 deaths accounted for 15-20% of all sampled deaths - many more than official reports suggest and contradicting the widely held view that covid-19 has largely skipped Africa and had little impact.” (1/x)
“They also show that covid-19 deaths occurred across a wider age spectrum than reported elsewhere and were concentrated among people aged under 65, including an unexpectedly high number of deaths in children.”
“The absence of data on covid-19 in Africa has fostered a widely held view that the virus has largely skipped Africa and had little impact. However, this may be an example of the ‘absence of evidence’ being widely misconstrued as ‘evidence of absence.’”
“To address this evidence gap, a team of international researchers set out to measure the fatal impact of covid-19 in an urban African population. Overall, the virus was detected in 70 (19%) of people. The average age at death was 48 years and 70% were men.”
“Most deaths in people with covid-19 (73%) occurred in the community,” as opposed to the hospital, “and none had been tested for the virus before death. Among the 19 people who died in hospital, six were tested before death.”
“The proportion of deaths with covid-19 increased with age, but 76% of people who died were aged under 60 years.” (X/x)

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More from @dwallacewells

12 Feb
"They're going to be chasing variants around the globe for the foreseeable future, and have made a death pact for endemic spread—it's never going to go away." says @gregggonsalves, in a great podcast with @jameshamblin and @maevehiggins. (1/x) podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6L…
"We're now in a path where we're going to have these cycles of coronavirus outbreaks as there are gaps in vaccination across the U.S. and across the world, and as new variants emerge that might be less susceptible to vaccines that we put out into the field."
"We could be lucky. Maybe these variants don't emerge that escape the ability to be neutralized by the antibodies raised by these vaccines, but, you know, we have hundreds of millions of people infected, and while this virus isn't as great a mutation generator as HIV, but..."
Read 5 tweets
12 Feb
In his book American Crisis, Andrew Cuomo addressed his nursing home policy in the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic at some length. It was always a defensive, tone-deaf account; given what we now know about his data falsification, it is outrageous. A thread... (1/x)
"The most painful aspect of the COVID crisis has been its
devastating effect on our elderly in nursing homes," he writes. "Understanding the threat, on March 13, we were taking every precaution that we could think of."
"Even before New York had a single COVID death, we banned visitors from going into nursing homes for fear that they might be transmitting the virus, and we required PPE, temperature checks, and cohorting of residents with COVID."
Read 13 tweets
12 Feb
"Imagine you are setting across the table from two people both of whom are 65 or older, both with underlying health conditions. You have two doses of vaccine, one in each hand...." @mtosterholm on the covid vaccine dosing dilemma. marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolu… (1/x)
"And you say to them I can give two doses to you or to you but then the other person gets nothing. Or I can give one dose to both of you."
"This is what I know. At the very least, one dose is likely to prevent serious illness, hospitalization and death. Two doses will probably even prevent clinical disease with B.1.1.7."
Read 5 tweets
11 Feb
Seasonality, vaccines, variants, caseloads—the country is in a confusing place right now. I spoke with ⁦@michaelmina_lab⁩, probably the most incisive epidemiological thinker in this pandemic, about all of it. A thread of his many observations (1/x). nymag.com/intelligencer/…
“My personal feeling is we are seeing the benefits of seasonality hit, which I know some of my colleagues don’t agree with.” The conventional wisdom is that seasonality wouldn’t abate before the spring, but “it’s not uncommon for coronaviruses to essentially start dropping now.”
“Most of the known coronaviruses have something on the order of a three-month window where they’re really infectious — when they’re really transmitting.” We may be leaving that window behind now.
Read 38 tweets
9 Feb
“The virus still has a huge amount of kinetic energy out there in society. And what we’ve learned is even when you take the kinetic energy out, there’s just a huge amount of potential energy left.” ⁦@DrMikeRyan to ⁦@HelenBranswell⁩ (1/x) statnews.com/2021/02/09/a-q…
“And unless and until a huge proportion of the world’s population is immune to this virus, the potential energy in the virus will remain. It’s a fact.”
“What I see emerging ultimately is a Covid-19 control program, hopefully integrated into our influenza control program, so we have a much better way of dealing with respiratory viruses as ongoing threats.”
Read 5 tweets
29 Jan
“Pandemic anxiety has turned lately to the question of viral evolution—the possibility that the disease might be outracing our efforts to contain it.” Of all the new strains, the Brazilian variant may be most concerning. (1/x) nymag.com/intelligencer/…
“In the Amazonian city of Manaus, where antibodies had been previously estimated in 76% of the population, there has been a horrifying and deadly dramatic second wave, right in the middle of Brazilian summer in a place believed to have already developed true herd immunity.”
“A new ‘Comment’ published Wednesday in the Lancet surveys what we know about the Manaus variant, and offers four possible explanations for what has happened there. None of them are good. Three are quite terrifying.”
Read 26 tweets

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