Thread by @MarkLevineNYC

NYers should truly be optimistic about where we’ll be on covid in a few months—there are many reasons for hope.

We should also be very concerned about the *weeks* ahead—there are some dark clouds gathering.

A thread on where we're at as NYC approaches year 2 of the pandemic. 1/

First the good news. Our supply of vaccine is increasing. We were getting 100k/week in mid-Jan. Now we’re approaching 200k/wk. This will increase further in March. By May there will likely be enough supply so that every adult in NYC who wants a vaccine will be able to get it. 2/

It bears repeating just how amazing these vaccines are: they ensure almost zero death or hospitalization from covid, and exceedingly few light or asymptomatic cases. They have very few side effects. They appear to work against the known variants. 3/

NYC may be at herd immunity by July--or even earlier (!)--thanks to an increasing pace of vaccination, and thanks to a lot of immunity in NYers who have already had covid. 4/

That could mean a summer of 2021 which is vastly better than the summer of 2020--with most outdoor activities back, an increasing # of indoor venues reopening, the return of travel in some form, and most importantly the ability to hug grandparents. 5/

But there’s a wild card: variants. It is estimated that already 5% of cases in the U.S. are caused by the B.1.1.7 strain (first detected in UK), with a doubling in the portion of cases *every 10 days*. That will make it the dominant strain here by the end of March. 6/

We are flying blind on variants in NYC now. We are sequencing far too few samples (only 1% here vs. 10% in UK), and we are getting almost no public reporting on what’s being detected (last update was over 2 weeks ago!). But this we know: B117 is in NYC, and it’s spreading. 7/

In other cities where B117 has come to dominate, there has been a massive spike in the rate of infections. So we should expect that cases in NYC--still extremely high at 4k per day--will start increasing again soon. 8/

The risk in the weeks ahead is heightened by the fact that NYC has already started lifting public health restrictions. Limited indoor dining has begun, sports arenas (at low capacity) are opening soon, weddings will be allowed again in March. 9/

The actions we take now will determine whether NYC’s next wave is just a ripple, or something far worse. We need to vaccinate vulnerable people as fast as possible, and do much better at reaching the Black, Latino, and Asian communities being left behind. 10/

We need to start vaccinating people who are homebound in NYC. (Other places in the U.S. are already going door-to-door to administer the Moderna vaccine).

And--for the 1000th time!--we desperately need to vaccinate NYers who are incarcerated. 11/

In the coming weeks, while the threat of the variants loom, it’s critical that:
* Those who are high-risk limit non-essential activities outside home
* Everyone double mask, and those who are high-risk use KN95s
* People keep getting tested (# has been declining in NYC)
12/

Thanks to the heroism of essential workers, victories of science, and the sacrifices of NYers, we may be a few months away from a life that’s gloriously close to normal. Let’s use that hope to push us through just a few more weeks of tough work. 13/13