The #MysteryBroker reiterates: We’re in “the last phase of the first year of a bull market.” He points to past new bull markets where the first phase lasted a year, plus or minus a month or so. This one, by his lights, started March 23 of last year...
The #MysteryBroker says by the end of April, he expects stocks will enter a period of 3-5 months of “digestion and correction” with likely downside of roughly 15% in the S&P 500...
Coinciding with this shift to a new phase, #MysteryBroker says high-beta and speculative stocks should lose a bit more and value outperformance should solidify...
As for the new small-investor energy in the market, #MysteryBroker sees no significant difference between the Reddit hive now and Yahoo message boards in the late-'90s. The crowding into ARK, etc, shows fixation of hypergrowth tech is overdone...
No matter what, economy "will surge this spring and summer," though he's among those who thinks new fiscal support should be more targeted. Risk of overheat, yield rising too much, but not enough to derail economic rebound.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Michael Santoli

Michael Santoli Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @michaelsantoli

20 Feb
The retail-investor rush is charging up the bull run while turning old market patterns staticky. Rising volume on rallies vs. selloffs, surging micro-cap and options turnover, less index-ETF buying, elevated VIX. What's it all mean?

New @CNBCPro column.…
Yes, as noted last week, my weekend column will now run on CNBC Pro, along with my daily market notes.

Tatses of this week's piece, including the reversal of old market rhythms: Volume way up in a rising market since, and low-priced stocks are killing high-share-price names. ImageImage
JP Morgan shows how small-investors' preference for Big Tech along with small-cap-index has driven a widening gap between a 50-50 Nasdaq-Russell 2000 blend vs. the S&P 500... Image
Read 5 tweets
4 Jan
The #MysteryBroker says 2021 will be the reverse of 2020 in terms of market winners/losers. "Value, small cap, cyclical, international and equal weighted equity strategies will outperform." Banks over tech, Treasuries will have negative returns, services will outperform goods.
The #MysteryBroker's best guess on the year: "Quick, nasty" 10% correction starting in January, a run to new highs through March/April, extended 10-15% correction into July-Oct., then strong year-end rally. Overall S&P 500 up ~10%, with smaller cap/value sectors doing better.
#MysteryBroker sees much better growth as Covid cases peak soon, inoculation benefits reaped before true herd immunity. Travel, back-to-office revival. Folks will ask why market isn't stronger w/ economy humming - reverse of asking in 2020 why market so strong w/ economy weak.
Read 4 tweets
28 Dec 20
The #MysteryBroker says unequivocally that most of tech is in a bubble and near a peak. He notes that a technology or Internet bubble happens every 15-20 years (1968, 1983, 2000, 2020)...
The #MysteryBroker cites much of what we’re all looking at: wild speculative momentum in flimsy EV businesses, the mad rush into the IPO ETF, the SPAC cash grab, credulous and dramatic stock surges responding to analyst hype and, yes, the bitcoin quote graphic on CNBC...
The #MysteryBroker says we’ve “entered the last hurrah for growth and speculative stocks.” It will pressure overall market but not necessarily drive across-the-board losses...
Read 6 tweets
7 Apr 20
Need to catch up on #MysteryBroker calls, as people keep asking.

Last reported check-in was March 4, when he thought the late-February S&P 500 low would hold at 2950 and if not "will not go much lower."

It absolutely did not hold, went much lower: fell 24% the next 19 days...
The night of March 23, reviewing what the “most oversold levels ever,” #MysteryBroker called it “one of the greatest all-time panics in the history of the stock market..."
On March 23, #MysteryBroker said the low was close, within days, said virus-case growth would peak within 20 days and “when we finally bottom we will have a few up days that will likely not allow investors to get back in...."
Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!