Unfortunate but expected. Like the handful of other standard-cap mag bans, this'll need the Supreme Court to 👀.
Fun historical fact: in 1903 the Vermont Supreme Court struck down the state's carry permit law, making Vermont the only state in the country with permitless carry.
Vermont remained the only state with permitless carry for the next 100 years, until Alaska became #2 in 2003. Carry permits had bubbled up here and there since colonial times, but didn't really become a thing until the South's post-Civil War push to disarm former slaves.
By 1903, the South had been locked down on carry permits, and most of the rest of the country was may-issue. Vermont was a glaring exception. So much so that permitless carry was instead called "Vermont carry" for decades. Here's the state of affairs in 1986.
The first chip out of "Vermont carry" wasn't a step back, it was an expansion. Alaska joined the club in 2003. And within a few years, that opened the floodgates.
Here's where we are in 2021. Last week, Montana became the 18th state to go back to Vermont/permitless/constitutional carry. Tennessee is poised to become #19 this year, and Indiana is poised to become #20.
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The Trace is running a hit piece soon about a bunch of big 2A social media influencers. Here's a screenshot from an email they sent to a company, soliciting comment.
It's a great example of how this flavor of reputational blackmail works.
🧵 Anatomy of a hit piece 👇
The first thing to notice is the subtle-but-sweeping category creep. In two sentences, the suspect category expands from insurrectionists to conspiracy theorists to people talking about elections and politics and finally all the way to people who warn of gun confiscation.
Textbook motte-and-bailey: throw up a half-court shot (people warning of gun confiscation are bad) at the same time that you toss in a lay-up (insurrectionists are bad). When people call out the first, you fall back to the second. Smart sleight of hand. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motte-and…
For Q2, our piece on the influx of new gun owners topped the charts. Look at everybody who owns a gun in the US today, and almost 10% of them bought their first gun this year. An epochal shift.
By Q3, the second-order effects of that influx were becoming clear to everybody — the new gun owners realized that gun control laws target *them*. Our top tweet from Q3: orgs discouraging their supporters from learning too much about how those laws work.
A good example of an effective meme we see pretty frequently. The reason it's effective is simple: it's true — sort of. By picking a narrow slice of the story, it misleads while seeming (to a lay audience) to inform. Short thread on "the middlebrow factoid".
"Weapon of choice" is self-evidently wrong (there aren't nearly that many homemade guns in the country), but sure, criminals do use homemade guns today more than they did 10 or 20 years ago.
Naturally. Homemade guns are way easier to build today. But wait, isn't that bad?
Well, *why* are homemade guns easier to make today? For the same reason that guns in general are better: technology moved forward. It's like saying that reflex optics or pic rails are more popular with criminals today than they were 20 years ago. Yes. They're more popular period.
Our starting point is (to steal from our home page) this: “We’re all born with the right of self-defense, to control our own destiny. And for that to mean anything — especially for our weakest, poorest, or most disadvantaged — it means having great tools for self-defense.”
That's ultimately a philosophical position, not an epidemiological one, but it doesn't mean statistics go out the window. After all, it's our position *because* we believe (a) it produces the best results for individuals, and (b) respecting people's human rights is socially good.
CCW creates an empirical problem for those that made dire predictions: over the past 30 years, it swept the nation. The dire predictions didn’t come true. 2 things did:
- Millions able to carry safely
- No more police pretext (under may-issue) to frisk poor people
This is a map of state carry laws from 1986 to the present.
1986: 1 state unrestricted, 8 shall-issue, 25 may-issue, 16 no-issue
2019: 16 states unrestricted, 26 shall-issue, 8 may-issue, 0 no-issue
In other words, concealed carry went from being very unusual to achieving almost completely unmitigated ubiquity. Functionally the only places you can’t get a permit are Hawaii, Maryland, and New Jersey, and a small handful of counties in California, New York, and Massachusetts.