Thought I'd collect and share some differing perspectives about the California variant and acknowledge that there's a lot of debate about it! So the UCSF researchers found some stuff that seemed alarming...
the California variant has been around for months, yet it didn't suddenly take over like B117 has, suggesting it is not as worrisome
“It’s not as big a deal as the others,” said Harvard epidemiologist William Hanage, referring to other well-known variants
Some have also suggested that because the variant has been around so long, it is likely that it took off when cases exploded, not that it necessarily drove the explosion in cases
And finally, the question of vaccine escape. A pre-print study, meaning it hasn't been peer-reviewed, found that "the California variant B.1.429 (L452R) exhibited neutralization that was similar" to that of the wild type, so the vaccines are basically just as effective against it
So the takeaway: the variant is already dominant, so it's not like we have to wait and see what havoc will be wreaked when it spreads. It's already done that. And unless it's shown to be highly resistant to existing vaccines, it's probably not going to knock us off course.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
California is vaccinating around 200,000 people a day, according to Gov. Newsom. Since the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines each require two doses, it would take 13 months to vaccinate everyone in the state at this pace.
Newsom says that the vaccine supply the state is receiving is low and "simply not what we’re capable of administering, meaning we could do exponentially more."
Important note here: The FDA will likely approve the Johnson and Johnson vaccine this week, which is a single-dose vaccine. So that will hopefully rapidly bring our vaccination rate up, since it'll add another vaccine to the mix and also only requires one shot for coverage.
In LA, we’re vaccinating neighborhoods hardest-hit by COVID at the lowest rates — the opposite of how you’d distribute a vaccine if you wanted to prevent the most transmission and deaths. latimes.com/projects/la-co…
These trends also means that we won’t be able to get the pandemic control, because we won’t prevent outbreaks in the neighborhoods most likely to have them. And then they’ll spread to elsewhere.
If a house were on fire, you’d put the most water on that house to stop the fire and prevent it from spreading. Ignoring that house and watering houses a few blocks away makes no sense and allows the fire to keep going, grow in size and destroy other houses.
So the CDC changed its masking guidance yesterday to recommend tighter-fitting masks as well as double masks. But they specifically warned against layering KN95s, which surprised me given how common that combo has become
This is how they explained it when I followed-up:
KN95s and N95s work very well on their own and adding masks on top or underneath could "affect how well they fit the face and decrease their effectiveness" and also make them hard to breathe through and uncomfortable, officials say.
"Masks that are not comfortable may not be worn by people as long as they are needed. It's important for consumers to find a mask that fits well but that also is comfortable enough that they can wear it for prolonged periods, if needed," reads a CDC statement sent to me.
-159 cases of the B117 UK variant
-1,203 cases of West Coast variant
-no cases of P1 variant, believed to have emerged in Brazil
-two cases of the South African B1351 variant -- one in Alameda and one in Santa Clara County
What we know about these variants:
-the B117 variant is believed to be about 50% more infectious. it's prevalence in the US is doubling every week
-research on the B1351 variant suggests it may make some vaccines less effective. it's an issue to keep an eye on
Some more details about B1351 in California:
In the Santa Clara County case, the person infected returned from international travel in mid-January and began experiencing symptoms several days later.
LA County officials say that food and agriculture workers will become eligible for vaccination here in the next two to three weeks.
That sectors breaks down like this. About half a million people in this category in LA County.
LA County officials say that childcare and education workers will become eligible for vaccination within the next two to three weeks. There are nearly 700,000 people who qualify under this category in the county.
How many people are wearing cloth masks on top of KN95s?
The CDC's new masking guidance recommends wearing a cloth mask over a disposable mask, but it asks that people NOT layer KN95s. KN95s are meant to be worn on their own, it says.
I'm trying to find out more soon on why they're recommending this, but I'm wondering if it's because KN95s have a structure to them and if you put something on top it might flatten the mask, and reduce the tightness of the seal? Hopefully will know more soon.