❗️Key decisions determining the pace of the Govt’s roadmap were based on SPI-M-O modelling

⚠️ Some serious questions arise from the assumptions on which the modelling is based

Thread 👇

Vaccine rollout speed 👇

Assumption = our vaccine rollout speed dropping to 2m a week

Reality (so far) = much better

See more here:

Reducing risk of infection 👇

Assumption = just 48% and 60% protection from first and second dose respectively

Reality = PHE data suggests protection from first dose is 57%-70% and 85% after second dose

See more here: gov.uk/government/new…

Reducing hospitalisation & death 👇

Assumption = only 70% protection from first dose

Reality = Public Health Scotland data shows 85% protection from Pfizer and 94% from Oxford-AZ

See more here:

Coverage achieved 👇

Assumption = only 85% for 50-80s

Reality (so far) = 96% of the 50-80s dosed so far (70-79s)

See more here: england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-…

⚠️ There is a clear and concerning pattern of assumptions not reflecting the (much more positive!) reality

🤔 At the very least, this raises some serious questions about the extent to which these models should be relied on... (6/6)

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More from @Mark_J_Harper

4 Jan
💬 The start of the Oxford/AstraZeneca rollout is excellent news and will provide reassurance to so many. AZ’s chief executive has said they can produce up to 2 million doses a week. 1/6
💬 .@MattHancock told me last week that the NHS is capable of delivering the vaccines at this pace. This must become the central, overriding focus of government and I would encourage ministers to publish daily reports of progress. 2/6
💬 Vaccinating the oldest and most at risk groups dramatically changes the impact of Covid – in terms of deaths, serious health consequences and admissions to hospital. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
29 Sep 20
The latest Coronavirus Regulations on self-isolation, which were signed off by a Minister at 5pm on Sunday and came into force only 7 hours later, contain some very serious powers that were not in the statements made to Parliament last week 👇(1/6)
It creates a new criminal offence for employers who knowingly allow their employees to go to work when they’ve been told to self-isolate, with liability falling on both the company and its officers. (2/6)
It gives the power to use “reasonable force” to enforce self-isolation not just to police officers – who have special training about using the power safely – but also to PCSOs, anyone appointed by the Secretary of State and local authority employees. (3/6)
Read 6 tweets
23 Sep 20
Last week, a major change in the rules affecting every family in the country came into force, the so-called ‘rule of six’ – here are my thoughts for @timesredbox on why there needs to be more transparency and scrutiny. (1/4)
There’s no realistic way of enforcing these sorts of rules if the public lose trust and confidence in the Government’s messaging. (2/4)
Our parliamentary system delivers good government by ensuring Ministers have to explain policy, share the evidence which supports it and secure the agreement of Parliament. Good Ministers should not fear Parliament. (3/4)
Read 4 tweets
13 Sep 20
The last week has shown us that COVID-19 has not gone away – some considered thoughts for @ConHome on why the future of office life is already here (1/5) conservativehome.com/platform/2020/…
We are going to be living with the virus for some time – we need to be able to get on with our lives while also keeping COVID-19 under control (2/5) conservativehome.com/platform/2020/…
Most office workers can’t go back to the office full time until we have a vaccine or treatment and, even then, the workplace paradigm has shifted - an office-remote working hybrid is the new normal (3/5) conservativehome.com/platform/2020/…
Read 5 tweets
27 Jul 20
💬@BorisJohnson is right to focus on this - with almost 2 out of 3 adults in England either overweight or obese we’re stacking up avoidable serious health problems.

Personal responsibility is important - but with a publicly funded NHS, obesity costs us over £6bn a year 1/8
Losing weight means eating fewer calories and burning more through ⬆️ activity.

Simple to say ➡️ more difficult to do

Good to give people more tools to help 2/8
So I welcome the plan to get large pub & restaurant chains to put calories on their menus - will make it easier for people to make informed choices

Same with calorie labelling on alcohol 🍷 & 🍺 3/8
Read 8 tweets
22 Apr 20
We cannot continue with the current lockdown restrictions while waiting for a vaccine - there may never be one. That’s why we need a recovery plan. Some observations for @ConHome 👇 conservativehome.com/platform/2020/…
It will be a long process for the UK to return to its pre-coronavirus state - better to think in terms of a ‘recovery plan’ than an ‘exit strategy’ 👇 conservativehome.com/platform/2020/…
As the Government develops a coronavirus recovery plan, it needs to be as open as possible with the public about the trade-offs we face. The Government will stand a better chance of taking the public with it if it keeps them informed 👇 conservativehome.com/platform/2020/…
Read 7 tweets

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