Thread by @DoomsdayDebunks

I don't understand why there is such pessimism about zero covid. It's getting politically incorrect to talk about it. Yet 20% of the world already is #ZEROCOVID. quora.com/q/debunkingdoo… Politically correct is #LOWCOVID despite nobody achieving it yet long term for months.

It is not up to the virus. It is up to us. Any country or state can achieve #ZEROCOVID, and join travel bubbles with other #ZEROCOVID countries. At least through to 2022 we have the world divided into #ZEROCOVID and #LOWCOVID and it is a political choice which you join.

But I think #LOWCOVID will be hard to achieve for long periods, months on end, without also achieving #ZEROCOVID because of variants, need for boosters, and if cases aren't falling, they are likely rising. Keep them falling and county, state and country at a time we reach 0.

Good data from Israel, Pfizer reduced asymptomatic infection by nearly 90% (89.4%). And it is a first generation vaccine, we can expect vaccines to improve as they find out more.

reuters.com/article/health…

So long as we keep it going down, then I think we are headed for more of a #ZEROCOVID than a #LOWCOVID world though both would be good.

I think once we are down to a few cases per million again, countries will be very cautious to not let them rise again like last year. At that point I think they will reconsider the #ZEROCOVID goal and find it more attractive after weeks or months of hovering at 1 per million.

COVID can be eradicated with around 60% immunity at typical R0 of 2.5. If Pfizer at 90% can eradicate it with vaccines alone, it means that countries that aim just for #LOWCOVID but vaccinate nearly everyone to achieve it will still reach #ZEROCOVID

And Pfizer is a first generation vaccine. There is a lot of work still be done - even basic things like different vaccines for 1st and 2nd dose, varying doses and varying the interval - also doses for multiple variants in one dose plus many new candidates on their way.

Why give up on eradicating it and say its impossible? Without even attempting to eradicate it? We've eradicated smallpox and eradicated three other diseases from the Americas and several other diseases from individual countries.

At 1 case per million you have a health system geared up to a 100 a day or more tracking, tracing, testing and isolating just 1 per day. All those resources mean it is easier to reduce in numbers, the fewer the cases. E.g. NZ gene sequence every case making cluster busting easy.

Also this virus is very hetereogenous (clumpy). Once you are down to a few per million it's likely just a few superspreader locations e.g. last summer in the UK it was mainly in a single city, Leicester with 0.5% of our population.

This means you don't have to vaccinate everyone to stop it. With 90% of transmission stopped, vaccinate everyone in Leicester - would turn an R0 of 1.3 say to 0.13, even 3 to 0.3, and the local outbreak will end very fast. I think this will happen long before 70% vaccinated.

At cases per million it will be clustered in particular places. So the choice will be - do we ease up completely and let it spread out through the country again - or do we go in hard in Leicester (or wherever) and close it down there. And I think the choice will be to stop it.

There isn't any point in letting it trickle on in Leicester or wherever it is the last remaining cases in the country are, on and on. Especially if they look around and see some other countries and states that have gone ZEROCOVID as I think will happen.

#ZEROCOVID doesn't mean lockdown for ever, the opposite. Taiwan never had a lockdown. Once you are down to zero local transmisison for 28 days you drop everything, no masks, distancing, nothing as New Zealand has done most of the way through the pandemic quora.com/q/debunkingdoo…

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