JW Mason Profile picture
24 Feb, 10 tweets, 2 min read
Senator Warren: "I take it that your view is that inequality is something that holds our economy down and stunts economic growth. Is that a fair statement?"

Powell: "Yes it is."
Powell: "We can't affect wealth inequality. We can, indirectly, affect income inequality."

I understand why he's trying to draw this line but I don't think it's going to work.
Pushed by some southern troll to clarify whether he is for or against the Biden stimulus and relief bill, Powell refuses and adds, "we didn't comment on the tax cuts." Ouch!
Troll asks him about money stock. Powell: "When you and I studied economics a million years ago, monetary aggregates seemed to have an important relationship with economic growth. Now I would say that the growth of M2 doesn't have important implications for the economic outlook."
"M2 was removed some years ago from the list of leading economic indicators. That classic relationship between the money stock and the size fo the economy, it just no longer holds."

I am going to be quoting this in class for years.
"When unemployment was low over the last few years, and labor force participation moved up - despite lots of predictions that it wouldn't - we saw lots of virtuous effects in the labor market."
"... one of them was, you saw employers investing more in training. You saw employers looking for people at the margins of the labor force. Employers were going to prisons, getting to know people before they came out, and giving them jobs as they came out."
Prompted on whether there is still need for more stimulus:

"We are going to keep our policy accommodative. We think there is significant ground that needs to be covered before we get to full employment."
(Some of these senators are having serious feedback issues.)
I'm sorry to say that Powell is taking digital currencies seriously.

(What does digital currency even mean? Is your bank account recorded on an abacus? (And actually, isn't even an abacus digital, when you think about it?))

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More from @JWMason1

24 Feb
Powell: "Most research still says there's a tradeoff between job loss [from minimum wage] and those whose wages go up but actually the unanimity of that finding of 30 or 40 years ago is no longer in place, there's a much more nuanced understanding."

Progress in economics.
"We may some upward pressure on prices zs the economy reopens -- a good problem to have -- but I don't think those effects will be large or persistent."
(Yes, now that the kids are in bed I can finally listen to and not-quite-live tweet Powell's testimony today.)
Read 6 tweets
24 Feb
"In a global economy, people who can work with and benefit from technology, there's no limit on the number of those people who can be working in the United States."

Did Jay Powell just come out for open borders?
"Central banks have learned how to keep inflation under control - we know how to do that. But that is not a problem for this time, as near as I can figure. And if it does turn out to be, we have the tools that we need."
Senator Rounds: "The chairman has said that banks should do more to support workers and the broader economy. But they can't do that when we're tying their hands with excessive and challenging capital requirements." On the one hand, it's comically obvious special pleading. But...
Read 5 tweets
22 Feb
As you can see from the tight clustering of points around the regression line, the long-run capital-output ratio for every country in the world can be precisely estimated at 2.7. Image
You may think I am joking, but this is literally the procedure used to produce the capital stock numbers in the Penn World Tables. aeaweb.org/articles?id=10… Image
No, really. Image
Read 11 tweets
8 Feb
At the moment we are rightly focused on stimulus/relief fiscal packages. But going forward, imo, progressive economists should be pushing conversation about fundamental principles of monetary policy. (thread)
In coming years, I think there will be a permanent shift away from idea that changes in a single policy rate can be the sole or central tool of monetary policy (let alone of policy in general), for several reasons.
First, one lesson of past dozen years is that changes in the policy rate are much less powerful & reliable tools for influencing output, employment etc. than people used to think. (Honestly should have been clear already, but definitely clear now.) Broader problem than just ZLB.
Read 15 tweets
6 Feb
If I understand Blanchard correctly, he thinks the Biden package will result in the rapid closing of the output gap, consistently on-target inflation for the first time in a decade, and a policy rate safely away from the zero lower bound.

So, he's against it.
It's very strange to see people say both (1) the zero lower bound on interest rates is a serious problem, and (2) we should under no circumstances pass a fiscal stimulus large enough to call for raising the policy rate above zero.
I think this is case where idea of R*, the natural or neutral rate of interest, imposes real costs. People who think the policy rate consistent with full employment is a function of "deep, structural" factors can't see how it also depends on fiscal position.
Read 9 tweets
5 Feb
I think there's actually an important and non-obvious question here. When we talk about the multiplier from additional spending, how are we imagining that distributed over time?
When you say the multiplier is 1.5, does that mean you think 1) a dollar of public spending raises GDP by $1.50 this year, with no effect on GDP in future years? Or 2) $1.50 this year, plus some amount in future years? Or 3) a total of $1.50, distributed over several years?
If I understand him correctly, @GagnonMacro is using interpretation 1, while @ernietedeschi is using interpretation 3. It's not clear to me that literature on multipliers clearly distinguishes these cases.
Read 7 tweets

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