@ArticulateDinos @picardonhealth @NSNDP @globalnews I'm going to respond to this tweet with an explanatory thread because both @kat_toth and @picardonhealth "liked" it, which I think implies agreement, and I respect them both but think they couldn't have this more wrong, so here goes...
@ArticulateDinos @picardonhealth @NSNDP @globalnews @kat_toth First, what I have to say below does not mean I necessarily agree with government policy on vaccines. I'm agnostic about it, to be honest. 1/
@ArticulateDinos @picardonhealth @NSNDP @globalnews @kat_toth And debates about policy are healthy. The government and Strang *should* be challenged, and have to defend their policies. That's what democracy is all about. We have far too much paternalism in Canadian government 2/
@ArticulateDinos @picardonhealth @NSNDP @globalnews @kat_toth But simply looking at stats without understanding the context and the policies that underly the stats is the absolute worst kind of analysis. 3/
@ArticulateDinos @picardonhealth @NSNDP @globalnews @kat_toth To my ears, saying "How is it that NS remains absolute LAST in Vaccination rates, compared with every other province & territory in Canada?" implies that NS has a failure in execution of vaccine delivery. End of story: every other province is doing better, ergo NS is failing 4/
@ArticulateDinos @picardonhealth @NSNDP @globalnews @kat_toth But it could also be read as an honest question... "how is it?" so here's the explanation 5/
@ArticulateDinos @picardonhealth @NSNDP @globalnews @kat_toth NS has decided, upon delivery of vaccine, to hold back the second doses. So I shipment of 1,000 doses comes in, 500 are sent to be administered into people's arms, and the other 500 are kept in the freezer for three weeks, so they are there and ready to deploy for 2nd doses 6/
@ArticulateDinos @picardonhealth @NSNDP @globalnews @kat_toth Obviously, this will mean that a higher percentage of vaccine is NOT being administered into arms at any one moment than in places (the rest of Canada) that have chosen a different strategy 7/
@ArticulateDinos @picardonhealth @NSNDP @globalnews @kat_toth That counter strategy is to hold back nothing, and deliver all vaccine received as quickly as possible, and use future deliveries for the second doses 8/
@ArticulateDinos @picardonhealth @NSNDP @globalnews @kat_toth So there are two possible criticisms of NS: 1) It simply is failing to deliver vaccine into arms because they don't know how to properly move vaccine around and hire nurses and so forth, or 2) holding back the 2nd dose is a bad strategy 9/
@ArticulateDinos @picardonhealth @NSNDP @globalnews @kat_toth If your criticism is of the #1 variety, you're simply wrong. NS is middle of the pack in getting the vaccine designated for administering into arms as quickly as possible. 10/
@ArticulateDinos @picardonhealth @NSNDP @globalnews @kat_toth If your criticism is of the #2 variety — it's a bad strategy — then we have something to discuss and debate. As I say, I'm agnostic, and I think debate on this is healthy. I will, however, state what is behind the strategy. 11/
@ArticulateDinos @picardonhealth @NSNDP @globalnews @kat_toth Public Health argues Nova Scotia has among the very lowest (with PEI) rates of COVID infection in not just the country but the world. It's been over 6 months since anyone has died with the disease, and only 1 person is now hospitalized with it, and they travelled in with it 12/
@ArticulateDinos @picardonhealth @NSNDP @globalnews @kat_toth That doesn't mean we can take it easy on the vaccine front. But it does mean that other considerations should be, er, considered when implementing a vaccination strategy. What are those considerations? 13/
@ArticulateDinos @picardonhealth @NSNDP @globalnews @kat_toth Well, Public Health argues that the manufacturers' recommendations is that the 2nd dose be delivered in the 21-28-day time frame. And it is feared that waiting much longer *may* give the virus time to get a mutation around the effectiveness of the 2nd dose 14/
@ArticulateDinos @picardonhealth @NSNDP @globalnews @kat_toth And, from the start, NS was told that the vaccine delivery schedule was very tentative. Disruptions in the supply chain might result in any expected delivery not showing up. 15/
@ArticulateDinos @picardonhealth @NSNDP @globalnews @kat_toth And indeed, that's exactly what happened. Pfizer reduced its output in order to retool its plant to increase production down the road, and much of the Moderna vaccine that was expected to arrive in NS was diverted to the northern territories 16/
@ArticulateDinos @picardonhealth @NSNDP @globalnews @kat_toth But despite those disruptions in the supply chain, because NS held back the second doses, all those second doses were administered into arms within the 21-28 day timeframe. So, the hold-back strategy was internally consistent, and worked on its own terms 17/
@ArticulateDinos @picardonhealth @NSNDP @globalnews @kat_toth The people running the vaccination program in NS have said from the get-go that the hold-back strategy could be changed, and especially so when a consistent, reliable delivery schedule for vaccine is certain. 18/
@ArticulateDinos @picardonhealth @NSNDP @globalnews @kat_toth So, again: criticize the hold-back strategy if you want, but do so knowing that it has proved itself in the face of supply disruptions, and do so knowing that the pandemic situation in NS is very different than in the rest of the country/world. 19/
@ArticulateDinos @picardonhealth @NSNDP @globalnews @kat_toth As I say, debate on that point is healthy, and Strang and his team should always be double checking their assumptions and policies. I've got no problem with that. 20/
@ArticulateDinos @picardonhealth @NSNDP @globalnews @kat_toth However, that's a very different thing than simply looking at a statistical table and seeing NS has the lowest percentage of vaccine delivered into arms and concluding "Nova Scotia is BAD," with no further analysis. /end
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