Thread by @djrothkopf

A (v. brief) thread on the Biden Admin decision not to directly sanction MBS for his role in the murder of Jamal Khashoggi:

As I noted yesterday, I was disappointed in the fact that the admin did not impose more direct penalties on MBS for being the architect of the murder.

I did feel they generally handled the matter well otherwise, making a declassified version of the intel findings public, sanctioning Saudis close to MBS, launching a program penalizing others who persecute journalists and naming it after Khashoggi, respecting process, etc.

Not sanctioning MBS directly does send a message that top government officials who have interests that intersect with those of the US may act with impunity. It also suggested that the US so needed the Saudis that we dare not offend them by doing what is right.

That said, I think presenting the actions of the administration in their totality do send a clear message and exact a clear punishment on MBS. Consider the following:
--MBS was clearly identified as the architect of the murder in official US docs...a fact that will haunt him.

--Those close to him were sanctioned.
--He has been snubbed by the administration and the president has refused to deal with him directly, thus demoting him in the eyes of a key international partner.
--The Khashoggi Ban created by State draws a line re: future behavior.

--The Khashoggi Ban ensures this case will never be forgotten and that MBS will always be remembered for his despicable behavior in this case.
--This admin has also ended support for the war MBS spearheaded in Yemen, a clear rebuke and a blow to him.

--This admin will also actively pursue a new deal with Iran. We will handle it deftly and consult with the countries in the region, but in the end, reducing tensions with Iran, while good for the Saudis, will be a blow to hawks within the KSA.

--This admin's active, sweeping green energy and climate measures will help reduce dependency on oil worldwide and thus reduce the main source of KSA leverage in the world.
--This admin's seeming desire to dial back US engagement in the region will also help...

--...put the relationship in perspective.
--It is clear that the era of Trump (and the Bushes) toadying to the kingdom is over. The KSA is not seen as an ally but as a sometime partner.
--The message that human rights is a top priority of the admin has been delivered.

It might have been possible for the admin to make this case for themselves...to underscore that their response to the murder and their shift on MBS and the KSA has been substantial. But diplomacy is diplomacy and with the Iran deal, it is clear they have bigger fish to fry.

So, in this case, even though I believe they could have and should have gone farther to sanction MBS personally, the actions of the Biden Admin tell a powerful story. If they don't want to frame that way, that may be wise. We can debate that.

But we should not minimize what they have done. Surely, I suspect, MBS does not.