1) Total cash declined by $638 million from 9/30, not by $7.4 billion as is widely reported. A $6.8B payable for T-bills purchased at 9/30 means cash was never $145.7B. Y/Y cash increased by $10.3B. 1/
2) BRK sold a net $2.4B in common stocks during the quarter and $8.6B for the year. $AAPL was an $11B trim. I don’t like the language about Apple as the “third most valuable asset.” I prefer the language about “pocketing $11 billion by selling a small portion of our position.” 2/
At high prices let’s keep the $11B “small” Apple sales coming.
3) Share repos totaled $24.7B for the year, $9B in 4Q. Subsequent purchases through February 16 reduced the share count by an additional 0.8%. A rising price is not slowing the pace of buying. 3/
Depending on the pace of repos & the share price, ongoing $3B/monthly buys would shrink shares out by >6.5% in 2021. The monthly clip of buys has been steady for 9 ½ months. Worth watching. My hope is the stock stays cheap. Not sure many people get this. Most want stocks up. 4/
4) Headcount down 7%, 28K to 360K,(ex BH Media/Buffalo News). Growth logically in growing subs – Clayton, Forest River, MiTek, GEICO, BH Specialty. Precision cuts–nearly half the net decline. The letter mentioned headcount but not cuts. We’ll see how many jobs actually return. 5/
5) Policies-in-force at GEICO grew 4.6% y/y and by less in 4Q. $PGR is growing nearly 2x as fast. GEICO lost market share to Progressive. Needs fixing.
6)Total debt increased by $9.2B during 4Q. Berkshire continues to lengthen maturities at extremely favorable interest rates. 6/
Overall lots to like on the capital allocation front. If Berkshire’s pivot to meaningful repurchases proves durable, everyone is encouraged to sell their undervalued shares! 7/7 END
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Jim, I have a ton of respect for your work but this is a bad take. $BRKA traded as high as 3x book in the late 90's, rewarded for compounding book at 25% a year for three decades. Trades for 125% of BV today, so a 60% decline, yet BVPS compounded way faster than the S&P...1/
When the stock was expensive Buffett used it as currency to buy companies. In 2020? Repurchased shares meaningfully @ 105% of BV. Growth in BVPS killed the S&P 500 by more than 3%/yr from the late 90’s, between 10-14% versus 7-10% for the index depending on the beginning year. 2/
The stock portfolio also wins. 21% in 2020 vs 18.4%. 39.8% in 2019 vs 24.8%. Even from 1998 when the portfolio was overvalued, $KO at close to 50x, the portfolio still wins 7.6% to 7.2%. I bought $BRKA in 2000 at 105% of BV. BRK’s BVPS grew 9.7% from there vs 7.2% for the S&P. 3/
@charliebilello, question for you. Housing is > 40% of the CPI. You show US house prices up 10%. The St. Louis Fed reports a 2.3% increase y/y in avg prices from $384.6k to $393.3k. Rents (below) are down. The CPI is tilted to rental equivalents & includes utilities, etc... 1/
Transportation (eg. airfares, autos) are the 2nd largest component & prices are weakened by the pandemic. Food/beverage is up ~4% so inflation there. Medical and education are each about 7% of the index and prices there are flat. My daughter's $$$$ college had no tuition hike. 2/
I get that the commodities you listed are up a ton but they have a tiny impact on GDP. On housing, Case-Shiller & Zillow do show high-single-digit increases y/y but from an inflation/household affordability perspective don't take the huge drop in mortgage rates into account. 3/
Whoa! Working on my Berkshire model here. $BRK owns ~7.5% of BYD. Paid<$250m in '08. Sales were $17.5B in '19, matching the market cap of $17B at year-end '19. $BRK's position was $1.1B, a nice gain over 12 years. The shares rose from HKD38.85 on 12/31/19 to 254.60 yesterday..1/2
Exchange rate is 7.75HKD/USD. Sales in $ are now $20B. Market cap? $98B. EBITDA margin 13%. BRK's position closed 2020 at $5.9B and is now $7.5B! You won't see it in BRK's 13-F but the position is now the 6th largest in the stock portfolio! Omaha to Charlie, "Time to sell?" 2/
The stock was up 423% in 2020 alone. Over the ~12.5 years Berkshire's owned it, BYD compounded at more than 32% per year, much of which came when the EV mania took hold in June. It's up 25% already in 2021. Just imagine if it catches the EV CAR company I won't mention here! 3/
The marriage of auto insurance & Tesla. Fiction or non? It must be hell on the sell side when you have a sell recommendation on a stock that takes off like a SpaceX rocket. Or on a company raising capital. POMO (Pressure Of Missing Out)? So it seems. Yet another $TSLA thread...1/
Can't help it. Hard to miss the price target raise on $TSLA this week (1/5) at Morgan Stanley from $540 to $810. The stock was $729.77 at the 1/4 close. The analyst had an underweight (sell) recommendation on Tesla as recently as June 12 and a target of $130. Oh so long ago.. /2
The stock was upgraded to equal-weight (hold), price target $272 on 8/13, two weeks before a $5B at-the-money equity raise (no coincidence). Another upgrade, this time to outperform (buy) target $540 on 11/18, three weeks before another $5B equity raise (no coincidence). /3
Thanks for the message. As you point out, “Bloomstran doesn’t understand $TSLA growth math or basic investment theory.” If you don’t mind, given my deficiencies, could you add some color to your 2025 projections? The non-believers and I would be most grateful. Some questions...1/
You have EV adoption rising from 3% to 20% in five years, a 6x increase (46% CAGR) and Tesla market share at 25%. 2019 global new vehicle sales totaled ~95m units and will be way lower this year. Let's call 2020 a throwaway for the industry, and hats off to $TSLA for growing. 2/
From the 2019 base, if we assume 4% market growth then new global units in 2025 would be 115m and at your expected 20% share Tesla would sell 29 million vehicles. Is this your assumption? Sounds aggressive given Tesla’s 500k unit run rate for 2020 and 1/2% market share. 3/
A single prediction for the New Year. Those unfamiliar with the Federal Reserve Board’s Regulation T will hear lots about it during 2021. The rule limits the percentage of an investment in equity securities that can be borrowed with a margin loan. A wake up call is scheduled...1/
It was widely reported this week that total margin debt reached a new high of $722B. The WSJ’s 12/28 lead Business and Finance story profiled a $TSLA retail investor, a civil engineer, who had parlayed a $23k option investment in $TSLA into a $2m position. Oh boy. 2/
The gentleman is to surely and genuinely be commended for the investment. An 87x gain in a short period is extraordinary (I've never done that, nor will I). That said, a quick perusal of $TSLA twitter commentary and recommendations is terrifying. 3/ wsj.com/articles/inves…