Tren Griffin Profile picture
Mar 1, 2021 14 tweets 4 min read Read on X
This podcast with John Malone is self-recommending. He describes Bill Gates arriving for a meeting with a pizza and a beer 6-pack telling him to "Forget hardware since there's nothing in hardware that can't be emulated in software." Malone: "Damn, I should have listened to him."
If you don't at least bookmark this John Malone interview you are a damn fool. If you pay attention you can hear someone with a circle of competence mindset. For example, generating value as an operator who understands cash flow and leverage isn't the same skill as stock picking.
John Malone: "Every business comes down to the quality of the management. It is not important that I know the business, but it is important that they know the business. I can help them with finance, but they need to have the vision, the drive and the team building skills."
4/ John Malone: "If you can transform these media businesses into a direct to consumer model where you have pricing power and full information about your relationship with the consumer, you don't have to calculate a terminal value. It gains a level of perpetuity as a business."
5/ John Malone: "A wholesale or indirect media business doesn't have this same level of perpetuity. The multiples that a direct to consumer media business will command are much higher."
6/ I've said before I believe John Malone created the SaaS business model by borrowing it from real estate. The same effect on terminal value exists in SaaS that Malone takes about in the "direct to consumer" media business.

P.s, start the podcast at the six minute mark.
7/ Malone talks in the podcast about this SPAC:

"Demand for the $500M IPO in January of Liberty Media Acquisition Corp, a SPAC backed by Formula One owner Liberty Media Corp, exceeded the size of the offering by 20 times." reuters.com/article/busine…

He likes adjacent businesses.
8/ John Malone: “A covered call is the way I take risk in the equity market. I’m not a stock picker. Growing businesses by putting pieces together is what I’m comfortable with. My approach to building a business is incrementalism. What business is adjoining me?' ~ Minute 29
9/ Malone: "I think in terms of mathematical models. My wife says: 'Your whole life is solving the travelling salesman problem.' You try to come up with models that simplify and make it easier to make decisions. You are always trying to force a decision to a conclusion." ~ 12.45
10/ Malone: "Precision is for accountants. Good enough is OK for engineers. My whole career is an endless series of lessons. You try to take a holistic view. Problem solving is optimizing businesses. The objective is maximizing shareholder wealth in a reasonable time frame."
11/ Malone: "I learned from Moses Shapiro that in any analysis always ask the question 'if not.' Always challenge your assumptions. Always look at the potential downside. Where am I at if my assumptions are wrong? Would I have enough juice left to come back if I make a mistake?"
12/ My Neighbor's Dog: "Are you listening to that John Malone podcast a second time?"

Me: "Only twice so far."

My Neighbor's Dog: "What's the best Malone material?"

Me: "This talk by Malone is the best.

Or this interview:"
13/ Bill Gates: “John Malone is straightforward in terms of talking about technology and strategy. He and I are damn similar. He worked at Bell Labs and understands both business and technology.” Playboy, July, 1994 thecorememory.com/The_Bill_Gates…
14/ "It’s not about earnings, it’s about wealth creation and levered cash-flow growth. [We] don’t care about earnings. I'd go to shareholder meetings and someone would ask about earnings. I’d say, ‘You’re in the wrong meeting.’ That’s the wrong metric.'" 25iq.com/2014/11/02/a-d…

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More from @trengriffin

Jan 1
1/ A friend asked me to summarize Charlie Munger's framework with a few of his quotes from after my book was published. "Extra points for a short explanation."

Four categories form a checklist and create the pneumonic "RISE”:

Rationality
Inversion
Self-Regulation
Emulation Image
Rational:

"There's hardly anything more important than being rational or objective. Think of the people who are just utterly brilliant who do some of the dumbest things. You won't have any trouble thinking of examples. It's hard to be rational." Image
Inversion

"The way complex adaptive systems work, and the way mental constructs work, problems frequently become easier to solve through inversion. If you turn problems around into reverse, you often think better."

Be smart by not being stupid Image
Read 5 tweets
Feb 25, 2023
John Malone: "At the moment, there’s a lot of blood flowing down the gutters, of people who are streaming, and some can afford it and some cannot.” hollywoodreporter.com/business/busin…
"With WBD backing out of their RSNs, when combined with the Bally Sports networks, 17 of the league's 30 clubs, or 2/3 of MLB’s total now are on the edge of financial collapse." forbes.com/sites/maurybro…
"The leagues are gonna have to be careful, they don't want to end up with a very high price premium service with no reach because then the kids will stop watching the sport." cnbc.com/amp/2022/11/17…
Read 4 tweets
Feb 25, 2023
Of the 300 poss I wrote on 25iQ the one about Steve Jobs was perhaps the trickiest to write. To make sure that everything I said was accurate I had every word checked by someone who was his direct report for 7 years. Steve Jobs would have been 68 this week.25iq.com/2014/12/28/a-d…
On the August day in 1981 Bill Gates hosted a summit meeting at the Seattle Tennis Club (pictured) on the shores of Lake Washington. Steve Jobs gave a mesmerizing performance. Macintosh would offer exponentially greater value than anything on the market. siliconvalley.com/2014/08/29/199…
One giant advantage of being born in 1955 was the the magic of the microprocessor arrived while you were in high school. This changed the world at just the right time for Steve Jobs and Bill Gates. That birth year meant you missed the Vietnam draft and were too old for disco. 🕺
Read 4 tweets
Feb 19, 2023
"Operating loss of $392 million."

"Adjusted Operating Income increased 34% to $137 million"

It's all about the adjustments.

amcnetworks.com/press-releases…
"I’ve never made an investment in the movie business in any way, shape, manner or form. It may be a very good place to make a living as an actor or a writer or something or a musician. But it’s a hard place to make money if you’re an investor."

Charlie Munger this past week.
Warren Buffett: "The nice thing about the mouse is that he doesn't have an agent. You know I mean the mouse is yours and he is not in there renegotiating and you know every every week or every month. [Disney] understands all of that very well."
Read 4 tweets
Jan 7, 2023
1/ What is Roku's customer acquisition cost (CAC)? What is churn? How about ARPU? Gross Margin? Do you understand Roku's unit economics? Can you calculate per customers CLV/CBCV? variety.com/2023/digital/n…
2/ "The YOY compression in platform and player margins resulted in gross profit growth of negative 2% YOY versus the 12% YOY growth in total net revenue. Q3 adjusted EBITDA was negative $34 million and we ended the quarter with >$2 billion of cash." fool.com/earnings/call-…
3/ Is nine months right?

"So churn is job one for 2023. You have to get your churn down because the customer acquisition costs means you have to have a subscriber for like nine months before you get a payback just on your customer acquisition cost. ca.finance.yahoo.com/video/streamin…
Read 10 tweets
Jan 6, 2023
OCT. 10, 1989

This estimate for Excel was across all platforms. Not just OS/2.
upi.com/Archives/1989/…
Steve Ballmer

"IBM was the bear and we were going to ride the back of the bear. You just had to try to stay on the bear's back and the bear would twist and turn and try to buck you and throw you, but darn, we were going to ride the bear."

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1098019…
pbs.org/nerds/part2.ht…

“IBM is proposing to take over the definition of PC desktop operating systems. Thru have a plan to design the operating system so that their hardware Micro Channel architecture and applications are tied in.” Bill Gates PC Week, June 24, 1991
Read 4 tweets

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