Trung Phan Profile picture
Mar 1, 2021 17 tweets 7 min read Read on X
1/ In 2004, Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos met for a meal to discuss space.

It was one of their few in-person interactions.

The conversation they had perfectly captures the different approaches they've taken to space exploration.

Here's the story 🧵 Image
2/ For Bezos, the path to the meeting began in 1999 when he and famed sci-fi author Neal Stephenson watched the film "October Sky" (about NASA engineer Homer Hickam)

After the viewing, the Amazon founder told Stephenson he always wanted to start a space company... Image
3/..and Stephenson said "why don't you start today?"

Stephenson -- author of classics such as "Snow Crash" -- was hire #1 and put together a team of thinkers and engineers.

Bezos dropped in on the team one Saturday a month, mostly to discuss alternatives to chemical rockets. ImageImage
4/ Bezos' space company Blue Origins was officially incorporated in Sept 2000.

Elon Musk wouldn't launch SpaceX until Mar 2002. He bankrolled it with 2 big tech exits:

• selling Zip2 to Compaq for $300m in 1999
• netting $180m after eBay bought PayPal for $1.5B in July 2002
5/ From the start, SpaceX was much more publicly visible.

Musk's attempts to win NASA contracts (competing w/ Boeing and Lockheed Martin) included wild stunts.

In Dec 2003, he rolled a SpaceX rocket down Independence Ave in DC and gave a speech at the Air & Space Museum ImageImage
6/ While SpaceX had yet to launch a rocket into space, it was testing engines in Texas and Bezos wanted to pick Musk's brains.

When they met in 2004, Musk was not impressed by Bezos' progress: Image
7/ Like really unimpressed ("dude, we tried that") Image
8/ Why did Bezos ignore Musk's advice?

His history at Amazon clearly shows 3 things:
• vast patience
• trailblazing its own path
• constant experimentation

If Bezos was wrong, he wanted to find out on his own...and didn't mind if that would take some time.
9/ The Bezos strategy is enshrined in Blue Origin's motto and its coat of arms.

The motto is "Gradatim Ferociter" (step by step, ferociously) while the coat of arms has a pair of turtles (AKA the tortoise vs. the hare) heading to the stars.

Slow and steady wins it for Bezos. Image
10/ Conversely, SpaceX's motto is "Head down. Plow through the line" Musk's aim of creating a multi-planet species (eg Mars) requires urgency.

(Bezos is more focussed on creating a space economy for millions of people)

SpaceX's first successful launch came 4yrs after they met.
11/ Over the years, Blue Origin has aggressively hired top SpaceX talent, often 2x-ing their salary:

"I think it’s unnecessary and a bit rude,” Musk says of the practice.

Blue Origin's New Shepard would finally touch the edge of space in Apr 2015, nearly 7 years after SpaceX. Image
12/ With Bezos retiring from Amazon and focussing more on Blue Origin, the battle b/t the world's 2 richest people (each worth $160B+) may just be starting.

While SpaceX has the clear lead, Bezos is likely banking on Aesop's tortoise and hare fable to win the race. ImageImage
13/ If you enjoy business stories like this (or dumb memes) SMASH that follow: @TrungTPhan

Excerpts from the great book "The Space Barons" by Christian Davenport.

Check this story about Elon Musk starting SpaceX with a legendary cold call:
14/ PS. Here's a funny video debunking Bezos' claim that Blue Origin made the first re-usable rocket:

15/ If the space beef between Musk and Bezos wasn’t enough.

Amazon-backed EV startup Rivian (maker of trucks and SUVs) is eyeing a $50B IPO this year.

Here’s how it’s truck stacks up to Tesla’s Cybertruck. Image
16/ PS: Link to "Space Barons" amazon.com/Space-Barons-B…

And a story I wrote about founding SpaceX team member, Jim Cantrell: thehustle.co/jim-cantrell-r…
17/ PPS: Here was a dumb meme that got the @elonmusk seal of approval

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More from @TrungTPhan

Apr 4
Steve Cohen’s setup includes renting a 2nd hotel room when he travels so his team can re-build a replica of his 12-monitor work station for him in it. Image
From the book Black Edge:

And here are some details from a former SAC employee: amazon.ca/Black-Edge-Ins…
observer.com/2017/02/sac-ca…
Image
I also have a 12-monitor setup to help research app customers reset their passwords.Bearly.AI
Read 4 tweets
Apr 3
Francis Ford Coppola’s new film “Megalopolis” cost $120m and he self-financed it (including money from selling his winery). 

Coppola is a legend of “going all in” and “putting skin in the game”. 

The GOAT example is “Apocalypse Now”, his classic 1979 war film with arguably the most insane production story ever. 

Let’s rewind to 1975, the year Copolla turned 36: he is on top of Hollywood after directing “The Godfather” (1972) and “The Godfather II” (1974). 

What does Coppola choose to do next? Make a film about the Vietnam War. The script was based on Joseph Conrad’s “Heart of Darkness”, the 1889 novel about the horrors of colonialism in the Belgian Congo.

The major studios all said “no” to Coppola’s pitch for three major reasons:

1️⃣ He wanted full creative control
2️⃣ He wanted to own all of the film rights
3️⃣ The Fall of Saigon happened in April 1975 and the American audience wasn’t exactly asking for a Vietnam War film (the studios wanted Coppola to make another Mafia flick)

Coppola was undeterred and made a huge bet.

“The Godfather II” cost $14m and the director estimated that “Apocalypse Now” would be the same budget. 

He put up $7m (mostly from those sweet Godfather checks) and raised another $7m from United Artists (which bought domestic distribution rights for ~7 years). 

But the project was a disaster from the start. 

Filming started in The Philippines in March 1976 and was supposed to last 3-4 months…it would take 16 months: 

▫️Harvey Keitel was the initial lead but Coppola fired him after one week.

▫️Martin Sheen (Captain Willard) took the lead role but drank so much on set that he gave himself a stress-induced heart attack and almost died. 

▫️Dennis Hopper was doing 3g of coke and 20+ drinks a day while on set (him and Marlon Brandon also hated each other).

▫️A typhoon destroyed 80% of the set and delayed filming for 2-3 months. 

▫️Actual dead bodies — stolen from a local grave — were used on set and the Filipino government and its strongman leader Ferdinand Marcos threatened to shut down production after finding out. 

▫️Marlon Brando (Col. Kurtz) demanded a huge fee ($3m+ for 3 weeks of work and 10% of the film’s gross). He then showed up late, asked for rewrites, declined to read Conrad’s book and was so overweight that the costumes wouldn’t fit (to obscure his heft, Copolla filmed Brando in the shadows and had him wear oversized dark clothing).

The budget ballooned to over $30m.

To maintain creative control and maintain all the film rights, Coppola mortgaged his home and borrowed money against his ownership in The Godfather. 

After the success of “Star Wars” (1977), Coppola even asked his friend and business partner George Lucas — who was originally tapped to direct Apocalypse — for some funds.

I repeat: Coppola went ALL THE WAY IN and had SKIN IN THE GAME.

His wife Eleanor took recorded video of all the insanity and the footage was turned into a 1991 documentary (“Hearts of Darkness: A Filmmaker's Apocalypse”).

The total cost for the film — including marketing spend — reached $45m.

Against all odds, Coppola finished the project and the film was released in August 1979. It grossed $105m and Coppola would make a fortune on future DVD, Home Video and other ancillary revenue streams (below is a trailer for a re-mastered cut from 2019).

During the Cannes Festival in May 1979, Coppola famously said of the film: “The way we made it was very much like the way the Americans were in Vietnam. We were in the jungle, there were too many of us, we had access to too much money, too much equipment, and little by little, we went insane.”
Coppola also said at Cannes that “My movie is not *about* Vietnam. My movie *is* Vietnam”.

It’s def one of the best films ever but that is … a stretch of a comparison.

Anyways, the making of The Godfather was also insane and I wrote about that here: readtrung.com/p/the-godfathe…
If you want more on Apocalypse Now, I went on Jim O'Shaughnessy’s “Infinite Loops” podcast with Rob Henderson to talk about the making and psychology of the film. open.spotify.com/episode/38OYIn…
Read 4 tweets
Mar 10
When Iron Man came out in 2008, Robert Downey Jr. was *not* a marquee star.

He was rebuilding his career and paid a below market rate of $500k.

But the deal terms set him up for one of the great acting comebacks ever (while earnings $450m+ as Tony Stark).

Here’s the story 🧵
Image
The Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) we know today was a long shot in the early 2000s.

Marvel was a public co. coming off bankruptcy in 1996 and had sold rights to its best IP (Spiderman, X-Men, Fantastic 4)

From 2000-07, films based on the IP minted cash but Marvel made little: Image
In the early-90s, Downey Jr. was one of the brightest young stars in Hollywood, receiving a Best Actor nomination for "Charlie Chaplin" in 1992 (@ 27yrs old).

In the 2nd half of the decade, though, he dealt with drug addiction, arrests and jail stints before going clean in 2003. Image
Read 20 tweets
Mar 4
Wendy's pricing snafu is a reminder of how hard these fast food chains try to optimize menu design.

McDonald's — which sells to ~1% of the world every day — did a digital menu redesign a few years ago and it boosted sales.

Here are 6 design psychology choices it made: Image
Background: In the mid-2010s, McDonald's sales were lagging. The brand turned it around with help of a multi-year menu & store redesign that:

◻️emphasized simplicity (sped up avg. drive thru time from 400 secs to 350 secs)
◻️highlights signature items (pricier = higher margins) Image
Here was McDonald's challenge: loyal customers love the classics (Big Mac, McChicken)

And spend only 30 secs on the menu (pushing them from defaults to a new items is hard)

But McDonald's sells 2B+ meals a month, so influencing choices for a small % of customers boosts profits. Image
Read 13 tweets
Feb 13
Masayoshi Son does the craziest investment swings:

▫️In mid-90s: invested $1.7B into 100+ internet firms (including a ~30% stake in Yahoo! for $100m)
▫️In 2000: was worth $78B at peak Dotcom and was the richest person in the world for 3 days (ahead of Gates)
▫️The bubble burst and he lost 99% of wealth
▫️In 2000, puts $20m into Alibaba for a 34% stake (sold out almost entirely by 2023 and made ~$72B)
▫️Lost $14B on WeWork
▫️Once owned ~5% of Nvidia but sold it all for $3.6B in 2019 (that stake would now be worth $90B)
▫️In 2016, Softbank bought Arm Holdings for $32B (still owns 90% and the stake is $114B, a gain of $82B)

Based on his ownership in Softbank and other investment vehicles, his personal wealth is currently ~$15B.Image
Masa in the 90s:

Masa $72B Alibaba:

Masa Arm:

Masa wild daily investing routine during COVID: forbes.com/forbes/1999/07…
ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/masayoshi…
finance.yahoo.com/news/masayoshi…
economist.com/business/2021/…
Image
Would love to get into one of these 8am to 10pm Zoom calls for the app and ask Masa for 0.000000000069% of the $100B Vision FundBearly.AI
Read 4 tweets
Feb 9
Nearly 100% of intercontinental internet traffic goes through submarine cables. 

It is a robust system with many redundancies. 

There are 500+ subsea cables and a fleet of 60 repair shops on stand-by but Big Tech isn’t taking chances:

▫️GOOGLE invested in 25 cables (and owns 12 outright). Per The Economist, the search giant started its sea cable program in 2008.
◽META invested in 15 cables (owns 1 outright).
◽MICROSOFT partly owns 4 cable.

One of the 500+ cable gets cut every 3 days (most common reasons are shark bites, anchor drops and deep-sea fish trawlers).

Remote areas are still very at risk.

Example: In 2022, a volcano erupted near Tonga and a mudslide took out the only cable nearby. Starlink provided some free internet coverage while it took 5 weeks for the cable to be fixed (5 weeks!!).Image
Full Economist read here:

Here is a cool excerpt of the deep-sea repair process…it’s no joke: economist.com/technology-qua…

Robert Metcalfe (inventor, ethernet cable) famously predicted internet would flame out. He thought cables couldn’t handle traffic and not enough investment in them.

He was wrong and literally ate his words.

Wrote about it and 7 other bad predictions here:readtrung.com/p/the-worst-te…
Read 4 tweets

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