Trung Phan Profile picture
Mar 1, 2021 17 tweets 7 min read Read on X
1/ In 2004, Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos met for a meal to discuss space.

It was one of their few in-person interactions.

The conversation they had perfectly captures the different approaches they've taken to space exploration.

Here's the story 🧵 Image
2/ For Bezos, the path to the meeting began in 1999 when he and famed sci-fi author Neal Stephenson watched the film "October Sky" (about NASA engineer Homer Hickam)

After the viewing, the Amazon founder told Stephenson he always wanted to start a space company... Image
3/..and Stephenson said "why don't you start today?"

Stephenson -- author of classics such as "Snow Crash" -- was hire #1 and put together a team of thinkers and engineers.

Bezos dropped in on the team one Saturday a month, mostly to discuss alternatives to chemical rockets. ImageImage
4/ Bezos' space company Blue Origins was officially incorporated in Sept 2000.

Elon Musk wouldn't launch SpaceX until Mar 2002. He bankrolled it with 2 big tech exits:

• selling Zip2 to Compaq for $300m in 1999
• netting $180m after eBay bought PayPal for $1.5B in July 2002
5/ From the start, SpaceX was much more publicly visible.

Musk's attempts to win NASA contracts (competing w/ Boeing and Lockheed Martin) included wild stunts.

In Dec 2003, he rolled a SpaceX rocket down Independence Ave in DC and gave a speech at the Air & Space Museum ImageImage
6/ While SpaceX had yet to launch a rocket into space, it was testing engines in Texas and Bezos wanted to pick Musk's brains.

When they met in 2004, Musk was not impressed by Bezos' progress: Image
7/ Like really unimpressed ("dude, we tried that") Image
8/ Why did Bezos ignore Musk's advice?

His history at Amazon clearly shows 3 things:
• vast patience
• trailblazing its own path
• constant experimentation

If Bezos was wrong, he wanted to find out on his own...and didn't mind if that would take some time.
9/ The Bezos strategy is enshrined in Blue Origin's motto and its coat of arms.

The motto is "Gradatim Ferociter" (step by step, ferociously) while the coat of arms has a pair of turtles (AKA the tortoise vs. the hare) heading to the stars.

Slow and steady wins it for Bezos. Image
10/ Conversely, SpaceX's motto is "Head down. Plow through the line" Musk's aim of creating a multi-planet species (eg Mars) requires urgency.

(Bezos is more focussed on creating a space economy for millions of people)

SpaceX's first successful launch came 4yrs after they met.
11/ Over the years, Blue Origin has aggressively hired top SpaceX talent, often 2x-ing their salary:

"I think it’s unnecessary and a bit rude,” Musk says of the practice.

Blue Origin's New Shepard would finally touch the edge of space in Apr 2015, nearly 7 years after SpaceX. Image
12/ With Bezos retiring from Amazon and focussing more on Blue Origin, the battle b/t the world's 2 richest people (each worth $160B+) may just be starting.

While SpaceX has the clear lead, Bezos is likely banking on Aesop's tortoise and hare fable to win the race. ImageImage
13/ If you enjoy business stories like this (or dumb memes) SMASH that follow: @TrungTPhan

Excerpts from the great book "The Space Barons" by Christian Davenport.

Check this story about Elon Musk starting SpaceX with a legendary cold call:
14/ PS. Here's a funny video debunking Bezos' claim that Blue Origin made the first re-usable rocket:

15/ If the space beef between Musk and Bezos wasn’t enough.

Amazon-backed EV startup Rivian (maker of trucks and SUVs) is eyeing a $50B IPO this year.

Here’s how it’s truck stacks up to Tesla’s Cybertruck. Image
16/ PS: Link to "Space Barons" amazon.com/Space-Barons-B…

And a story I wrote about founding SpaceX team member, Jim Cantrell: thehustle.co/jim-cantrell-r…
17/ PPS: Here was a dumb meme that got the @elonmusk seal of approval

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More from @TrungTPhan

Sep 19
PayPal’s bland logo redesign was inevitable
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If you are the person that did the un-aligned letters for the previous eBay logo, please contact the research app team. We are huge fans of how un-aligned the “e” is with the “y”.Bearly.AI
This article offers up reasons for popularity of simple font logos (mostly Sans Serif):

— Easier to standardize ads across mediums
— Improves readability (especially on mobile)
— The “brand” matters more than the logo velvetshark.com/why-do-brands-…
Read 4 tweets
Sep 1
Berkshire Hathaway board member Chris Davis once asked Charlie Munger why Costco didn’t drop the membership card.

Let anyone shop and raise prices by 2% (still great value), thus making up for lost membership fees (and more).

Munger said the card is important filter:

▫️“Think about who you’re keeping out [with a membership card]. Think about the cohort that won’t give you their license and their ID and get their picture taken.

Or they aren’t organized enough to do it, or they can’t do the math to realize [the value]…that cohort will have a 100% of your shoplifters and a 100% of your thieves. Now, it’ll also have most of your small tickets.

And that cohort relative to the US population will probably be shrinking as a % of GDP relative to the people that can do the math [on Costco’s value].”▫️

I have a membership but have been guffing on the math for a few years tbh. They keep telling me to upgrade from Gold to Business but I’m too lazy (even if the 2-3% Cash Back on Business pays back after a few trips).

This is a long way of saying Costco’s membership price hike effective today — its first in 7 years — is annoying but when I decide to do the math in a few months, it’ll be worth it.

***

Chris Davis’ remarks from this episode of The Knowledge Project: open.spotify.com/episode/6fJYHF…Image
Anyway, here is something I wrote about Costco’s $9B+ clothing business my affinity for Kirkland-branded socks and Puma gym shirts. readtrung.com/p/costcos-9b-c…
Two notes:

▫️Meant “Executive” (not “Business”) membership
▫️Chris Davis was doing a pure thought experiment. Costco membership obvi high margin (on~$5B a year) and accounts for majority of Costco profits. Retail margin is tiny on ~$230B of annual sales (Costco would need like another $150B+ from letting anyone shop to make up membership profits)Image
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Read 5 tweets
Aug 15
One of the Team USA rowers who won a Gold Medal is an investment banker and actually did the “B2B SaaS Sales” joke on Linkedin. Legend. Image
Here’s the rest of the post (perfectly formatted to show up in the feed as a shitpost): linkedin.com/feed/update/ur…
Image
Justin if you’re reading this and are available for consulting, the research app team would love to engage your B2B SaaS knowledge for our Q4 sales roadmapBearly.AI
Read 4 tweets
Aug 7
Explainer video on science of why the 400m sprint is considered the most painful track & field event.

And why “no person on the planet can run the 400m all out from start to finish".

The race pushes the way the body creates energy to the limit:

▫️0-50 meters: ATP-CP (energy system for very short and explosive movements; used up after 5-10 seconds)

▫️50-200 meters: Anaerobic glycolysis (burns glucose without oxygen, leading to lactic acid buildup and muscle fatigue)

▫️200-300 meters: Aerobic energy (uses oxygen to break down glucose, but cannot keep up with the demand)

▫️300-400 meters: Anaerobic energy reserves tapped while aerobic energy is too slow to fill the gaps (lactic acid buildup is going HAM)

Track athletes can pace for longer distances and shorter ones are just over quicker (obvs).

The Olympic record is a blazing 43:03, set by South African runner Wayde van Niekerk in 2016 (and 2024 Final race is tomorrow).

***

Full video from Outperform:
Usain Bolt ran the 400m early in career but then said training was “too hard”.

The 400m Hurdles is a world of pain too for similar reasons — Vox has a good vid on it:

Here is a great breakdown of Wayde van Niekerk’s record run:

Image
The 400m is also tough because you don’t get the benefit of an absolute baller like Bottle Klaus keeping hydrated
Read 5 tweets
Jul 20
The amount of work Hayao Miyazaki and Studio Ghibli team put into a film is mind-boggling.

Each typically has 60k-70k frames, all hand-drawn and painted with water color.

This 4-second clip (“The Wind Rises”) took one animator 15 months to do. Insane.
The docu “10 Years with Hayao Miyazaki” shows him talking to the animator (Eiji Yamamori) after its done.

It’s so good:

Miyazaki: “Good job.”
Yamamori: “It’s so short, though”
Miyazaki: “But it was worth it.”

The animator gets a second of joy (he’s pumped) but on to the next.
Miyazaki doesn’t use digital FX or computer graphics. He believes “that the tool of an animator is the pencil.”

On a related note, here’s something I wrote about another Japanese legend dedicated to the craft (Ichiro Suzuki) and the art of mastery: readtrung.com/p/jerry-seinfe…
Read 4 tweets
Jul 9
New York City paid Mckinsey $4m to conduct a feasibility study on whether trash bins are better than leaving garbage on the street.

The deck is 95-slides long and titled “The Future of Trash”.

Some highlights:

▫️The official term is “containerization”, which is the “storage of waste in sealed, rodent-proof receptacles rather than in plastic bags placed directly on the curb.”

▫️Two main types of containerization: 1) individual bins for low density locales; 2) shared containers for high-density.

▫️NYC needs to clean up 24,000,000lbs of garbage a day

▫️Containerization has only become the norm worldwide in major cities in the past 15 years.

▫️New York City first considered containerization in the 1970s but never conducted a feasibility study until now (Mckinsey’s sales team has been dropping the ball)

▫️Key considerations for container viability:

• POPULATION DENSITY: NYC has 30k residents per square mile (more dense than comparable big cities)

• BUILT ENVIRONMENT: Few places to “hide” containers due to history of infrastructure development.

• WEATHER: Snow creates challenges for “mechanized collection” in the winter.

• CURB SPACE: Mostly taken up by bus stops, bike lanes, outdoor dining and fire hydrants.

• COLLECTION FREQUENCY: NYC needs to double frequency of pick-up for estimated speed of trash that bins would accumulate.

• FLEET: A new garbage truck will needs to be designed to collect rolling bins at scale.

▫️ The proposed solution (literally garbage bins and shared containers) covers 89% of NYC streets and 77% of residential tonnage.

▫️The three case studies — because you gotta have solid case studies — are Amsterdam, Paris and Barcelona.

▫️There is a slide called “Why containerization matters” and three reasons are “rats”, “pedestrian obstruction” and “dirty streets” (the 21-year intern that did this slide billed at prob $10k an hour is my hero).

The study is actually pretty interesting.

I have no idea if $4m is a rip-off to learn that “yeah, we should put garbage in bins so rats don’t eat it” but I would have happily done it for 10-20% of that budget (and come to a similar conclusion).Image
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It is actually an interesting deck. Just the thought of a 20-year old newly grad getting billed at an obscene rate to say”rats get to garbage” is kinda funny

Four more solid slides:
— By the numbers (daily garbage = 140 Statue of Liberty a day!!)
— City comparison
— Container comparison (looks like they did select the “scalable” trash bin)
— Curb side analysis

Full deck here: dsny.cityofnewyork.us/wp-content/upl…Image
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Think Mckinsey telling NY to “put garbage in bins so rats don’t eat it and people can walk” will work out better than when it told AT&T in 1981 that cellphones would be “niche.”

That cost AT&T $13B and one worst business predictions ever as I wrote here: readtrung.com/p/the-worst-te…
Read 6 tweets

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