The William Hague article on debt is actually really weird and I can hardly follow it. But basically it's wrong.
It's ironic that he sets out on a hearty historical analogy. Because historically speaking our spikes of debt/GDP have been unwound not by paying down debt, but by growing GDP, a bit of inflation [quite a bit in the 70s and 80s] and financial repression.
What does this mean?
'Inflation could come back because of our debt. And a lot of our debt is index linked. So it will rise with prices. So inflation will make our debt go out of control!'
Poor man. He carried the torch of Tory fiscal conservatism for a while, and he feels strongly that something is not right about current circumstances, but is hopelessly confused. Things are bad, and could get worse, but he can't really explain to himself why.
Where do you start with this? I taught an undergrad 1st year course at City for a couple of years, and you would sometimes get stuff this confused, and struggle to find marks to get them over the pass line.
We are running inflation risks by borrowing to support the pandemic. But they are small and manageable. And it's not just me saying that - govt bond markets think this too and lots of the people trading those bonds are paid money to figure it out!
Moreover, this policy is so much superior than not doing it. Which will make social distancing untenable, ignite the virus too early, and cast a long shadow over the recovery with poverty, bankruptcy and homelessness.
Even on narrow public finance terms there is a good chance that it would be self-defeating, throttling the tax base through its effect on economic activity.
He's right about MMT. But it doesn't help that such a confused piece takes a pop at it as obviously he struggles with the general topic [fair enough - it's hard].
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Missing from the Budget is any discussion or action at all on addressing the economy's problems post covid. What health budget will be need to put us in a better place to deal with another one, or will we not bother trying to prepare [the implication of where we are]?
The pandemic has been incredibly regressive in terms of - impact on children's education; mortality; who can homework and who cannot; square footage that one is locked down into. Any thoughts on addressing that, or do we just proceed as though it didn't happen and won't?
What will be the hangover on expenditure patterns, demand for space, where people want to live and work? What role, if any, is there for government in facilitating dealing with this legacy/transition?
Will be interesting to see what the new @bankofengland remit, described today, is interpreted to mean.
Skewing corporate bond purchases [which don't amount to very much] towards greener firms? If so, how much of a skew would qualify as meeting the target?
Such a skew would presumably increase the credit risk for a given portfolio, in the short term. BoE indemified against that, but how much extra credit risk is acceptable per unit of greening?
Philip Collins saying that Labour like Boris Johnson taking their policies of generous deficit financed policies during the covid crisis. I think the opposite. Labour would prefer the Sunak view to win out so it can stand alone on fiscal activism [clear red water].
Right now Labour is confined to making minor technical points here and there. Or bringing up past failures, which sounds like point scoring during a national tragedy.
I think the Collins view derives from thinking that fiscal conservatism is being 'good on the economy', which, if it were so, would put Labour in a trickier spot.
Tuning in, there's a game on TV where you have to guess whether someone on zoom is wearing trousers or not. Just to be clear, I was definitely wearing trousers.
Points out @GeorgeOsborne put political interests of the Conservatives above those of the nation + did well out of it electorally, though putting us in a much worse place to weather the pandemic. But what exactly is in the political interests of the Conservatives now?
As @jdportes points out, mainstream econ opinion has moved doveish somewhat. Circumstances have forced the Tories' hands. And the electoral focus on the mythical 'Red Wall' tilts them to fiscal activism in the short and long term.
One of the things missing from the fiscal / covid strategy debate around the budget is what the risk of another pandemic is, and what it looks like if one hits.
If we are going to get one every generation, then the strategy of rolling over the debt indefinitely and allowing growth to shrink it as a portion of national income reduces what we should be doing by way of support to what would be shrunk by that growth subsequently.
That is, if you believe in finite fiscal space, which I do.