Thread: Revealing important information about link between the pro-MBS online disinformation network and the pro-Trump disinformation ecosystem
BACKGROUND: In May 2019, due to recent action by Twitter, a number of large Saudi disinfo accounts were removed from the platform for state-sponsored manipulation. This was a hit to MBS's disinfo efforts, and led to a Saudi state-manipulated campaign against Twitter.
The Saudi campaign included insults and harassment against Twitter MENA employees, but also importantly, calls to delete Twitter and install Parler. Some of these tweets are still online, but I don't want to link directly to them. Here's some screenshots (Arabic):
At the same time, 200,000 fresh Saudi accounts were created on Parler practically overnight. Our assessment (as well as the assessment of experts we spoke to at the time) is that the majority were disinfo accounts. reuters.com/article/us-twi…
Parler at the time was a rather small platform. When the Saudis created 200,000 new accounts in June 2019, it *more than doubled* its user base and almost crashed the site. But: this was only the visible part of Saudi interest in Parler.
THE NEWS: Today I'd like to reveal that MBS tried in June 2019 to purchase US right-wing social media platform Parler. His bid was serious enough that his consultants flew Parler founder & ex-CEO John Matze to Riyadh for negotiations.
MBS's consultants made certain requests of Matze, including ability to peer into accounts they deem "extremist", and insisted that accounts be registered by SMS + phone number, not through mobile verification.
The negotiations continued for a number of months. To his credit, John Matze was wondering whether the Saudis represented "American values" in light of the Khashoggi murder. I do not know if the deal proceeded past November 2019.
SUMMARY: MBS made a serious bid to purchase the same right-wing platform that was used as a staging ground for the Jan 6 attack on US democracy. He also wanted the platform to weaken its features to allow him to spy on its users. How far these talks went needs to be investigated.
This revelation is only part of a bigger story about the intersection between the disinfo ecosystems of Arab dictators and that of Trump. I received this information first hand. I will be limiting further comments for the time being.
KEY: I want to stress that to his credit, John Matze recognized that the Khashoggi murder meant that MBS and the Saudi regime cannot and do not align with American values. For this reason I would be surprised if anything happened after November 2019.
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So, the 12-day war between Israel (& the US) vs Iran seems to be over, and the ceasefire seems to be holding. Here's a thread assessing what has changed, what didn't change, and what may be next:
Since it's Israel who started this war, let's start with its war aims (declared & assumed):
- End Iran's nuclear program
- Regime change
- Kill Iran-US negotiations for a new deal
- Drag the US in
- Distract from Gaza
- Stop Europe’s 2SS push
So, was Iran's nuclear program stopped?
Expert consensus is forming around "no". The facilities were damaged but not fully destroyed. The US telegraphed its attacks early enough that Iran moved not just the uranium, but likely the centrifuges too.
A quick situational update after the US strikes Iran's nuclear facilities. Events might to accelerate, so I'm hoping to give you a snapshot of how things stand as of the time of writing this thread.
The US warned Iran ahead of its attacks - we have confirmation of this from US, Iranian, and Arab sources. The same reporting says the strike was one-off and now over, with the US seeking negotiations and explicitly denying intent to pursue regime change.
What about the damage? The Iranian authorities had already evacuated key sites and moved enriched uranium elsewhere. Early assessments show proven surface-level damage but no confirmed destruction of underground infrastructure. The Iranian nuclear program has not been "ended".
Excellent question by @vali_nasr. Here's a thread about Iran's nuclear program, why it's so hard to "destroy", and why "Fordow" is really about dragging the US into war:
Let's start with the basics. To have a nuclear program, a country needs:
- Uranium reserves
- The ability to mine ore & process it
- Centrifuges to enrich it
- Technical know-how to run the cycle
Iran has all of these *domestically*. Natively.
The way uranium is enriched is to first convert it into gas (UF₆) and then pass it through a cascade of centrifuges (which are basically fast-spinning cylinders) until it reaches a certain purity.
It's technically demanding, but not impossibly complicated.
Here's a big-picture geopolitical thread on Israel's war on Iran - its possibilities, impossibilities, dynamics, and delusions. My goal is to give you a full big-picture view in one place, which is why this is a long thread. If you prefer drip-fed updates, skip this thread.
Caveat: Most geopolitical analysis is cold and state-centric. This thread is rooted in collective liberation. Remember as you read: Israel's regime is genocidal. Iran's is a theocratic tyranny. If clear moral language makes you uncomfortable, scroll back to WSJ or CNN.
There are points where the thread touches on topics that deserve a deeper dive, or hints at arguments that require a fuller explanation. I've marked these with the door emoji. Where you see this:🚪, it means there's a door we can choose to walk into - later.
Hello everyone, emerging to drop some comments about Trump's recent statements about Gaza. I have limited time so I'd rather dump a quick analysis into a single meandering thread, sorry in advance
So: Trump, with a smirking Netanyahu sitting next to him, said he thinks Gaza should be ethnically cleansed, bulldozed, and then turned into a US-controlled "riviera." The comments have horrified and alarmed many people.
Netanyahu said they were "the first good idea he's heard"
This has zero chance of happening, but let's use this as an opportunity to explore how the region has changed since Oct 7th and how the world has changed since 2017 when Trump began his first term.
Here's a personal thread about the very strong, complex emotions that I struggled with all of last week, since we watched Assad fall and Syria rise:
(I've been working with my team on building systems that would enable me to post new content consistently & sustainably, and on multiple platforms. But I couldn't focus. I had to stop & check-in with myself. So let me acknowledge these emotions)
1. There's a nostalgic disorientation (or disoriented nostalgia?) - it's 13 years of our lives. The Syrian uprising & civil war has been a 13-year trauma. It started with immense hope and love, then tragedy, then an anger bordering on hate.