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Benjy Sarlin Profile picture
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2 Mar, 6 tweets, 2 min read
NEW: The Affordable Care Act is getting one of its biggest overhauls in a decade, and it's barely a blip on the political radar.

Here's what's going on and why it's so quiet this time. nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
The biggest ACA change would address one of THE core complaints about the law since passage: The "subsidy cliff" that leaves middle class customers with huge premiums if they don't qualify for federal aid. Now premiums would be capped at 8.5% of income. nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
One reason ACA changes in COVID bill are generating little drama?

No one's spending money to stop them.

The health industry, from insurers to hospitals to doctors, love it. It's more money for them with no price controls or taxes. All cake, no spinach. nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
Why aren't R's attacking ACA changes in the COVID bill? They largely retreated from ACA attacks after getting burned in 2018 and spent the last 2 years talking single-payer. There's no established message on tweaks to the ACA. Also they're very distracted. nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
Don't expect this era of good feelings to last. D's at some point will debate a public option, which is where the REAL fight starts bc it cuts industry profits.

Insurers, hospitals, doctors are primed to attack along with R's. Moderate D's could balk.

nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
One takeaway though: There are whole lot of areas where the left and corporate America are in alignment, which may make it easier to tuck their demands into a gigantic spending bill. And no area is this truer than on the next big Biden item: infrastructure spending.

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More from @BenjySarlin

Benjy Sarlin Profile picture
16 Feb
The key is the information environment on the right, which elected leaders have shown no interest in addressing. You could have predicted on 1/6 itself the exact combination -- false flag conspiracy, whatabout XYZ, procedural technicality -- that would soon bring voters back.
In fact:
The below tweet turned out to be inaccurate in two ways. One, he lost his Twitter feed, negating the premise. Two, according to Rep. Herrera Beutler, he was already spreading false flag conspiracies mid-attack, not the next morning.
Read 4 tweets
Benjy Sarlin Profile picture
12 Feb
Were Haley to rise to the top of the polls, Trump would be watching it 24/7 on cable, getting jealous of the attention, and inevitably he would say and do outrageous things to get the spotlight and then demand she affirm it all as a loyalty test. This is Trump 101.
Think of the chyrons. “CAN HALEY MOVE THE GOP PAST TRUMP?” “WILL HALEY REPAIR TRUMP’S DAMAGE WITH THE SUBURBS?” He wouldn’t just sit around for it.
This is all granting the assumption he doesn’t run himself, in which case you can guess from the @TimAlberta story what he’ll be bringing up about Haley.
Read 4 tweets
Benjy Sarlin Profile picture
11 Feb
Quick, guess the date!
Cruz warned of a "consistent pattern of inciting violence" in April 2016. Why? Trump warned there would be "riots" if GOP delegates didn't hand him the nomination. Supporters were threatening to confront delegates in their hotel rooms to back him up. cbsnews.com/news/cruz-trum…
Cruz was clear-eyed in 2016 that Trump could use the threat of violence by supporters to try and overturn an election, in this case a party one. He also criticized him for inciting rally violence earlier.

He wasn't alone among senators! Then they forgot. nbcnews.com/politics/donal…
Read 6 tweets
Benjy Sarlin Profile picture
9 Feb
For about 24 hours, Graham was in full ditch Trump mode, leaving behind a long trail of quotes. Then he snapped back almost instantly along with others who got in front of their skis criticizing him, most notably Nikki Haley.
Nikki Haley really went under the radar with this:

Jan 6 on Fox: “He was badly wrong with his words yesterday. And it wasn’t just his words. His actions since Election Day will be judged harshly by history."

Jan 26 on Fox: "At some point, I mean, give the man a break!"
"Judged harshly by history" got downgraded to, quote, "not his finest" in the second appearance.
Read 4 tweets
Benjy Sarlin Profile picture
5 Feb
I wrote a little about how Mitt Romney's child allowance is part of a broader trend. With both the Trump-era right and D's of all stripes pitching voters on direct cash benefits, the GOP doesn't have much of a working vocabulary to oppose them nbcnews.com/politics/meet-…
Ironically, Romney's own famous "47%" remarks were about how conservatives don't like "lucky duckies" with no income tax bill because they get too many refundable credits. Trump proposed sending them a tax return that said "I WIN" instead. That was the end of that.
Similarly, Trump has popularized the idea that just about everyone should get $2,000 checks. But that also makes it harder to attack monthly checks without work requirements as anti-work "welfare," which Rubio and Lee have argued.
Read 7 tweets
Benjy Sarlin Profile picture
1 Feb
Is "Biden quietly pursues enormous policy moves, but country moves on to other stories and Trump continues to drive political coverage" the best case scenario for Democrats in terms of politics/policy outcomes?
At some point some Biden policy is going to drive a big backlash, but it's also possible almost his entire ACA plan could get folded into a COVID bill and barely anyone will notice at this rate, let alone R's.
Another way to frame this thread about Biden's effectiveness is whether 15% of the country going "Oh, BIDEN is president now, riiiiight" is useful to Dems and how long it can last
Read 4 tweets

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