(1) Truly exciting news coming in on the efficacy of the indigenous Covaxin. If the trend holds, this can be a better vaccine than the famed Pfizer and Moderna ones with 90-95% efficacy? How? Read on...
https://twitter.com/parija_d/status/1351388340101279744
(2) The Phase III protocol in a nutshell: The plan was to enroll 25,800 participants in the study. Divided in to a vaccinated and a placebo group of ~ 13,000 each. Test all to ensure Covid-ve at baseline. Give 2 doses a month apart (vaccine as well as placebo). And then wait..
(3) Wait till 130 patients are tested Covid +ve on rt-PCR. Then compare the positives in both groups to arrive at an efficacy %. With me so far? Grossly dumbed down. But that's the gist of it. So what happened next?
(4) The Phase III will be completed once the study hits the magic 130+ve cases. But then, something unexpected happened. Due to the drastic reduction in Covid numbers (why that happened is a thread for another day), the study has been taking forever to hit the 130 +ves.
(5) So, how many Covid +ves have been diagnosed thus far you ask? It's 43. Why 43? Because (I am guessing here) its 1/3rd of 130. Hence the term "interim phase III results". But now for the good news that I have been raring to share...
(6) Of the 43 +ves, 36 were in the placebo group and 7 in the vaccinated. Hence the "interim "efficacy of 80.6% after 2 doses. Also, this is the largest study among the Indian population - hence more relevant. But this is still not the best news so far. Read on...
(7) The 90-95% efficacy we have been hearing on the Pfizer, Moderna etc are basically their efficacy in preventing serious illness, hospitalizations and deaths. Efficacy in preventing infection is around ~50%. So what's the big deal you ask?
(8) What Covaxin appears to be doing is demonstrating an efficacy of 81% in PREVENTING INFECTION. Which is HUGE. Which also means, that its efficacy in preventing serious illness and deaths may well be > 95% (pure conjecture at this point but what the hell).
(9) But we need to remember (1) the phase III is barely 1/3rd complete and (2) Even this available data needs to be published and peer reviewed. But so far, this looks super promising. DISCLAIMER: Have not gone through all the details of the data. Bits of this may be inaccurate.
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