Thread by @etrutnevyte

Out in @NatureClimate: We compiled 1,550 scenarios of #solarpv from peer-reviewed and influential grey literature and showed that uncertainty in global PV capacity by 2050 is largely associated with who, when and how created the scenarios
nature.com/articles/s4155…
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Over the past decade, scenarios projected values of #solarPV generation in 2050 from nearly zero to above 300 EJ yr−1, equivalent to capacity exceeding 60 TW

@IPCC_CH scenarios consistently projected lower #solarPV adoption pathways and higher capital costs than non-IPCC scenarios. We thus recommend increasing the diversity of models and scenario methods included in IPCC assessments

While it is well recognized that techno-economic assumptions influence scenario outcomes, we show that #solarpv scenarios should be interpreted in view of who created these scenarios because this may shape specific assumptions and hence PV outcomes in scenarios

According to @sibel_eker_ @IIASAVienna (rephrased), this raises a confrontational question whether these scenarios and the 'science' put in models are still reliable. Yes, but we need a more inclusive approach to diversity and policy relevance of scenarios nature.com/articles/s4155…

And then there are still some organizations that assume future #solarPV capital costs to be higher than the actual costs of today. The famous "assumptions drag" can last for a decade...

Finally, here are the rankings of various factors in explaining the level of #solarPV growth in global scenarios

@UNIGEenergy @unige_en @unige_ise @sciences_UNIGE

Left Y-axis refers to global PV generation in EJ/year from the analyzed scenarios