1) I think there's a lot of arbitrariness here:
https://twitter.com/SBF_Alameda/status/1367425722340450305
2) a) Say that you make $5b and have $5b of one-off expenses.
Earnings: $0.
b) Now say your mkt cap goes up from $1b to $50b.
Earnings: $0.
c) Now say you issue $10b of equity at a $50b valuation.
Earnings: $0.
Earnings: $0.
b) Now say your mkt cap goes up from $1b to $50b.
Earnings: $0.
c) Now say you issue $10b of equity at a $50b valuation.
Earnings: $0.
3) d) Say you also issue a token and own all the tokens.
Earnings: $0.
e) Now that token increases from $1b to $50b mkt cap.
Earnings: $0, but $49b of unrealized gain.
f) Now say you sold $10b of the token @ $50b val.
Earnings: $10b!
Earnings: $0.
e) Now that token increases from $1b to $50b mkt cap.
Earnings: $0, but $49b of unrealized gain.
f) Now say you sold $10b of the token @ $50b val.
Earnings: $10b!
4) But (f) and (c) are really similar!
Also: (a), (b), and (e) are all really similar. But you get unrealized gains, or equity gains, by issuing equity or tokens that people already knew would go up!
Also: (a), (b), and (e) are all really similar. But you get unrealized gains, or equity gains, by issuing equity or tokens that people already knew would go up!
5) What you've done is taken the expectation of future gains, and turned them into something with a market price.
So you sorta-kinda-maybe realize all your future gains now.
So you sorta-kinda-maybe realize all your future gains now.
6) So, for instance: who's made more in 2021 so far, OKEx or Coinbase?
Well, I'm not sure. I'd guess Coinbase had higher revenue, though--maybe $1b to $500m. So maybe the answer is Coinbase.
BUT -- OKB is up about $3b in market cap this year! And $3b > $500m.
Well, I'm not sure. I'd guess Coinbase had higher revenue, though--maybe $1b to $500m. So maybe the answer is Coinbase.
BUT -- OKB is up about $3b in market cap this year! And $3b > $500m.
7) But this is kinda weird. OKB is measuring _future_ performance, but Coinbase earnings are _current_ performance.
OKEx gets to add all of its future performance as an (unrealized?) gain because it's made explicit with OKB.
So, ok, maybe the answer is OKEx?
OKEx gets to add all of its future performance as an (unrealized?) gain because it's made explicit with OKB.
So, ok, maybe the answer is OKEx?
8) But that's silly: the thing that's up the _most_, really, is....
ftx.com/trade/CBSE/USD, which is currently implying a $100B market cap for Coinbase!
But, well, that's *equity*, which doesn't count for earnings.
ftx.com/trade/CBSE/USD, which is currently implying a $100B market cap for Coinbase!
But, well, that's *equity*, which doesn't count for earnings.
9) So, to get back to the original question:
Which had a better year: Coinbase, or Chainlink?
Coinbase made waaaay more revenue.
But... LINK is up about $18b in FDV. If Chainlink still has ~50% of the tokens, that's a ~$9B gain, way more than Coinbase's earnings.
Which had a better year: Coinbase, or Chainlink?
Coinbase made waaaay more revenue.
But... LINK is up about $18b in FDV. If Chainlink still has ~50% of the tokens, that's a ~$9B gain, way more than Coinbase's earnings.
10) How about Binance--do you count BNB? How about if they sold BNB after it increased?
Do you count Block.one's BTC holdings going up?
I don't know. The question has multiple types of answers.
Do you count Block.one's BTC holdings going up?
I don't know. The question has multiple types of answers.
11) But, anyway, companies that I'd put up there, depending on definitions:
a) Coinbase
b) Binance
c) Huobi
d) Block.one
e) Chainlink/Ripple/DOT
f) A16Z (owns a lot of CBSE!)
g) OKEx
h) FTX/BitMEX/Bybit/Bitfinex/Tether/DCG/Kraken
i) a bunch of VCs and trading firms
a) Coinbase
b) Binance
c) Huobi
d) Block.one
e) Chainlink/Ripple/DOT
f) A16Z (owns a lot of CBSE!)
g) OKEx
h) FTX/BitMEX/Bybit/Bitfinex/Tether/DCG/Kraken
i) a bunch of VCs and trading firms
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