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Joe Weisenthal Profile picture
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5 Mar, 6 tweets, 3 min read
BOOOOOM

379K jobs created in February. Well ahead of 200K estimated.

Unemployment rate falls to 6.2%.

Last month revised higher from 49K to 166K

bloomberg.com/news/live-blog…
Five year rates jump after the strong number

Stock futures slip, but not that much
Other stats from the report

LFPR steady at 61.4%
U6 steady at 11.1%
Average Hourly Earnings (YOY) grow 5.3% (all kinds of composition effects in that still)
Good thread from George here. By the broad labor market metrics that the Fed is really looking at to gauge the distance to maximum employment, this doesn't change the timeline very much
Leisure & Hospitality already starting to spring back to life in a big way. Lots more to come there in the coming months (HT: @edwardnh)
@edwardnh Long way to go to get back to normal on one of the most important labor market metrics

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More from @TheStalwart

Joe Weisenthal Profile picture
5 Mar
YOU'RE FINALLY GETTING THE STOCK MARKET YOU'VE BEEN ASKING FOR

In today's @markets newsletter, I wrote about how we finally have the right conditions such that the Fed just doesn't need to worry so much about volatility and selloffs.

Sub' here: bloomberg.com/account/newsle…
@markets Fiscal stimulus and deleveraging of private sector balance sheets means there isn't much of a transmission between asset prices and real economic activity. We might already be seeing a Fed that cares less about the market than it previously had been.
@markets As I said back in July, Fiscal expansion is the off ramp from the existing cycle. And it looks like that might be playing out.
Read 6 tweets
Joe Weisenthal Profile picture
3 Mar
IIRC, Palm was spun out from 3COM, and the stake that 3COM held in the spin was worth more than 3COM's own market cap for a period of time.
Oh yeah there's been a lot of academic discussion, I think, about why this happened in the market. q-group.org/wp-content/upl…
Read 4 tweets
Joe Weisenthal Profile picture
3 Mar
THIS IS WHY THERE'S BOTTLENECKS AND SHORTAGES THROUGHOUT THE ECONOMY

For today's @Markets newsletter, I talked with @nathantankus about why in times like this we see shortages, rather than price increases to balance out supply/demand

bloomberg.com/account/newsle…
@markets @NathanTankus Here's the comments from Monday, where every thing in the ISM survey was all about shortages and bottlenecks and supply chain disruptions
@markets @NathanTankus And a good read from @KimBhasin @JordynJournals @GufengRen on all the retailers this season talking about shipping delays bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 4 tweets
Joe Weisenthal Profile picture
1 Mar
US Manufacturing is HOT bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
This is pretty incredible. Citi's US Economic Surprise Index was already in the range of its highest levels ever, and now it's back on the rise. Image
Every single comment in the ISM survey is about supply chain bottlenecks or increased prices. Not a single respondent saying end demand is weak ismworld.org/supply-managem… Image
Read 4 tweets
Joe Weisenthal Profile picture
1 Mar
NEW ODD LOTS:

@tracyalloway and I talked with @howardlindzon about why he launched a SPAC.

This was the best discussion I've had so far in terms of helping me understand where they're all coming from and why everyone's going nuts for them right now.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
@tracyalloway @howardlindzon It turns out that in Howard's case, it all started last February, right before the pandemic hit, with a dinner at Carbone in NYC with @adambain.
Howard coming up next on WDYM to talk about SPACs Bloomberg.com/live
Read 4 tweets
Joe Weisenthal Profile picture
17 Feb
THEY KEEP UNDERESTIMATING THE US ECONOMY

In today's @markets newsletter, I wrote about how almost a year into this crisis, the strength of the US economy continues to be underestimated by economists and analysts

Sign up and get the letter in your inbox:
bloomberg.com/account/newsle…
@markets Here's the larger version of the Citi Surprise Chart. You can see. There's just nothing comparable in the last decade to the duration and scale of the data beats.
@markets Here's Goldman, from this past weekend, on how earnings are above pre-pandemic levels, while just clobbering expectations, even at this stage of the game.
Read 4 tweets

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