The jobs report shows an acceleration in job growth in February and an upward revision to January’s job growth. The economy is down 9.5 million jobs from February 2020 and will need more than two years of job growth at February’s pace just to get back to pre-pandemic levels. 1/
The unemployment rate ticked down to 6.2 percent, 2.7 percentage points above the rate in February 2020, before the pandemic sent many workers home and shuttered businesses and schools. More than 4 million workers have dropped out of the labor force. 2/
Accounting for labor force dropouts and misclassification issues related to BLS’s survey questions would result in an unemployment rate around 9.5 percent. 3/
This is not to say the headline unemployment rate is wrong, simply that in a pandemic, getting a full view of the economy requires looking at the data in multiple ways. 4/
The unemployment rate also varies substantially across groups, based on both the official unemployment rate and the one adjusted for labor force dropout and misclassification issues. Black and Latino workers have been particularly hard hit. 5/
While the official unemployment rate for women is just below that for men, once adjusted it is higher for women than it is for men reflecting how many more women have exited the labor force entirely. 6/
The overall male-female difference in labor force participation changes masks wide variation by race. 7/
White men and women have declines in labor force participation rates that are relatively similar (2.0 percentage points for white men and 1.9 for white women). 8/
On the other hand, the labor force participation rate is down 1.8 percentage points for Black men, but 4.2 percentage points for Black women. For Hispanic men it is 1.8 percentage points lower than February 2020, while for Hispanic women it is down by 4.1 percentage points.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics does not provide seasonally adjusted breakdowns for Asian men and women as part of their release. /10
However, not seasonally adjusted, the labor force participation rate in February 2021 for Asian men was down 1.8 percentage points from February 2020 relative to 1.9 percentage points for Asian women. The NSA unemployment rate for Asian women was higher than it was for men. /11
The overall jobs gap masks very different trends across industries. By far the worst hit industry is leisure and hospitality. Leisure and hospitality added 355,000 jobs in February, and its losses in January were revised down. /12
However, over the last three months the industry has lost an average of 56,000 jobs, reflecting heavy losses in December. This industry alone accounts for around 36 percent of jobs lost during the pandemic. /13
On the other hand, the financial activities sector, where workers can more easily telecommute, has held up relatively well, down only 1 percent from February 2020. /14
State and local government employment continues to suffer, down 1.4 million jobs from February 2020, of which one million are in education. /15
As the Administration stresses every month, the monthly employment and unemployment figures can be volatile, and payroll employment estimates can be subject to substantial revision. /16
Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report, and it is informative to consider each report in the context of other data as they become available. /end
The full CEA blogpost is here: whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Council of Economic Advisers

Council of Economic Advisers Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!