In this session of the CSSPR Conversation Series, @Rabs_AA discussed with @PravinSawhney the Sino-Indo disengagement and its implications on the threats India faces, the ceasefire on the LoC, India's position within the QUAD, and a lot more.
Disengagement happened within the 1959 Chinese claim line, and in areas which only had tactical value, said Pravin Sawhney while arguing that it showed how the PLA was unwilling to even give tactical concessions to India.
The PLA, he said, was insistent on India needing to vacate places within the Chinese claim line, if further progress is to be made.
India, he said, wants disengagement on all friction points while the Chinese want discussions on the Moscow agreement.
In answering @Rabs_AA 's question on the link between disengagement and de-escalation, Pravin said while disengagement is a good thing, de-escalation is meaningless because the Tibet Autonomous Region is PLA's operational base and permanent habitat.
That, according to Pravin, is one of the reasons why the threat to India on the LAC is increasing exponentially. The Chinese, he said, are going from strength to strength.
In responding to a question on the cf agreement on the LoC, Pravin said China might have played a role in it, reminding the audience about Xi's counsel to Modi in October 2019.
Pravin said what @ImranKhanPTI tweeted after the ceasefire is noteworthy. Khan, he said, was referring to going back to the pre-August 5 status. He said there appears to be great coordination between Pakistan and China on this matter. All want peace, he asserted.
Pakistan, he reminded, wants peace, connectivity, and trade. The Chinese also want the same, he added.
LoC and LAC, he said, are reinforced lines because of the increasing degrees of interactions between China and Pakistan. He said there are military dynamics and then there are bigger dynamics involved in the scheme of things, chief among them being regional dominance.
.@Rabs_AA raised a question linking India's August 5 gambit with China’s strategic maneuvers in Eastern Ladakh, and as to the ongoing disengagement means in that context. Pravin said that China asserts that it never shared a border with Ladakh.
Pravin added that China does not accept India's position that the tinkering with Ladakh's status is notional.
Busting India's stand, China has not only achieved its military aims, but it has also achieved its political aims in Ladakh, Pravin said while adding that the area will be under the scanner going forward.
With China on its 1959 claim line, it talks about sovereignty issues, reminded Pravin. To Xi, said Pravin, sovereignty means that China would never give up any territory that belongs to it.
Pravin delved into how Beijing views its boundaries with India,arguing that things will deteriorate because the Chinese have realised that in order to focus on their strategic priority:SCS, they have to deal with the second one: India.
Resolution of border issues is not in the offing, Pravin said while adding that the threat will continue to trouble India.
.@Rabs_AA 's question on whether China diluted India's stature and position within the Quad, Pravin said that China is not rising; it has risen. Conceding that India is the weakest link, Pravin talked about its importance in the Quad and the Indo-Pacific Strategy.
He said, India has a professional military at its disposal and geography on its side.
On the question of escalation, Pravin said escalation for the sake of escalation is pointless. Any government in India would not have escalated because as a weaker power it could not have controlled the cycle of escalation.
The US worries that China is making a China- centric Digital order. He discussed the fast-mover advantages that new technologies give states that want to achieve their tactical and strategic objectives.
India needs to make peace and normalise its relations with Pakistan, said Pravin while adding that the first thing it can do, as Pakistan's PM advised, is to go back to pre-August 5 position on Kashmir.
He said it is unreasonable to expect quick resolutions. That said, he argued, a dialogue will open new pathways. He added that resorting to war is not a path that India should take.
When asked by @Rabs_AA about the role of third parties in pushing India and Pakistan towards dialogue, Pravin said he doesn't see Washington playing much of a role . He said previous U.S. efforts have been short-lived, and today that country finds itself in a quagmire in Afg.
Getting India and Pakistan together is not a priority for India, said Pravin. China, said Pravin, can indeed play a role. However, according to Pravin, making peace with Pakistan does not suit the ideology of the Modi government.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Syed Ali Zia Jaffery

Syed Ali Zia Jaffery Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @syedalizia1992

2 Mar
In the CSSPR Conversation Series, Dr. @Rabs_AA hosted Dr. @vali_nasr ,for a wide-ranging discussion on regional dynamics, the intercession between geopolitics and geoeconomics, Pak-U.S. relations, Afghanistan, Iran, and a whole lot more.
According to Dr.Nasr, the Biden administration has not come to office with a forward-looking policy on South and Western Asia, for that matter.
However, Dr.Nasr contended that the changing landscape due to three broad changes will bring in new dynamics.
Read 28 tweets
24 Sep 20
Enthralling conversation happening right now on @ajwsmall 's interesting and thought-provoking report. @Rabs_AA has made some excellent remarks on the report and the overall dynamics of CPEC.…
Dr.Akhtar calls CPEC as a transformative project, and terms the parleys on CPEC as recalibration and reassessment that would ultimately lead to reassurance.
Dr.Akhtar contends that the watered-down version of CPEC is not denting its gargantuan nature, but the tailoring of the project is more sustainable and reassuring. "Let's face it ,plans and goals change; delays and deliberations happen," she added.
Read 8 tweets
23 Sep 20
William E.Todd ,the nominated US Amb to Pakistan, gave a testimony to the Senate's Foreign Relations Committee.…
"The U.S.-Pakistan health partnership helped contribute to better-than-expected COVID-
19 outcomes in Pakistan, from training health workers to upgrading emergency operations
Todd said Pakistan remains an important regional partner.
Read 6 tweets
4 Sep 20
That @MarkeyDaniel dedicates the preface of his book to Gwadar is quite telling and commensurate with China's priorities in the region.
Interesting point re impediments for China: domestic politics within states of Eurasia.
"“Where does China stand on this issue?”
will become second nature to American diplomats in the region."

Read 4 tweets
31 Aug 20
This piece by @Rabs_AA ,brilliantly lays bare Pakistan's future strategic challenges and the option(s) that the country should exercise ,in the wake of the Israel-Gulf rapprochement.…
The author argues that Pakistan must not lose sight of the impending threat of encirclement, that could emanate from Israel's forays around and proximity to Pakistan. New Delhi and Tel Aviv could ramp up trouble for Islamabad in the Arabian Gulf, argues the author.
But why Pakistan could be the target? The author says that it is because Islamabad continues to survive, rather than wilt, posing a great deal of discomfiture to those that want to impede the country's rise up the power ladder.
Read 5 tweets
29 Jul 20
"Our campus was off limits ,creativity was not," says @Rabs_AA in an RCSS webinar on Education and Technology.
Internet access is the biggest issue when it comes to the online education landscape in Pakistan, she adds.
Pakistan is not new to virtual education, says @Rabs_AA while giving the examples of the AIOU and VU. She adds that Pakistan must embrace the online world of education, if not ,it stands to lose.
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!