Thread by @syedalizia1992

In this session of the CSSPR Conversation Series, @Rabs_AA discussed with @PravinSawhney the Sino-Indo disengagement and its implications on the threats India faces, the ceasefire on the LoC, India's position within the QUAD, and a lot more.

Disengagement happened within the 1959 Chinese claim line, and in areas which only had tactical value, said Pravin Sawhney while arguing that it showed how the PLA was unwilling to even give tactical concessions to India.

The PLA, he said, was insistent on India needing to vacate places within the Chinese claim line, if further progress is to be made.

India, he said, wants disengagement on all friction points while the Chinese want discussions on the Moscow agreement.

In answering @Rabs_AA 's question on the link between disengagement and de-escalation, Pravin said while disengagement is a good thing, de-escalation is meaningless because the Tibet Autonomous Region is PLA's operational base and permanent habitat.

That, according to Pravin, is one of the reasons why the threat to India on the LAC is increasing exponentially. The Chinese, he said, are going from strength to strength.

In responding to a question on the cf agreement on the LoC, Pravin said China might have played a role in it, reminding the audience about Xi's counsel to Modi in October 2019.

Pravin said what @ImranKhanPTI tweeted after the ceasefire is noteworthy. Khan, he said, was referring to going back to the pre-August 5 status. He said there appears to be great coordination between Pakistan and China on this matter. All want peace, he asserted.

Pakistan, he reminded, wants peace, connectivity, and trade. The Chinese also want the same, he added.

LoC and LAC, he said, are reinforced lines because of the increasing degrees of interactions between China and Pakistan. He said there are military dynamics and then there are bigger dynamics involved in the scheme of things, chief among them being regional dominance.

.@Rabs_AA raised a question linking India's August 5 gambit with China’s strategic maneuvers in Eastern Ladakh, and as to the ongoing disengagement means in that context. Pravin said that China asserts that it never shared a border with Ladakh.

Pravin added that China does not accept India's position that the tinkering with Ladakh's status is notional.

Busting India's stand, China has not only achieved its military aims, but it has also achieved its political aims in Ladakh, Pravin said while adding that the area will be under the scanner going forward.

With China on its 1959 claim line, it talks about sovereignty issues, reminded Pravin. To Xi, said Pravin, sovereignty means that China would never give up any territory that belongs to it.

Pravin delved into how Beijing views its boundaries with India,arguing that things will deteriorate because the Chinese have realised that in order to focus on their strategic priority:SCS, they have to deal with the second one: India.

Resolution of border issues is not in the offing, Pravin said while adding that the threat will continue to trouble India.

.@Rabs_AA 's question on whether China diluted India's stature and position within the Quad, Pravin said that China is not rising; it has risen. Conceding that India is the weakest link, Pravin talked about its importance in the Quad and the Indo-Pacific Strategy.

He said, India has a professional military at its disposal and geography on its side.

On the question of escalation, Pravin said escalation for the sake of escalation is pointless. Any government in India would not have escalated because as a weaker power it could not have controlled the cycle of escalation.

The US worries that China is making a China- centric Digital order. He discussed the fast-mover advantages that new technologies give states that want to achieve their tactical and strategic objectives.

India needs to make peace and normalise its relations with Pakistan, said Pravin while adding that the first thing it can do, as Pakistan's PM advised, is to go back to pre-August 5 position on Kashmir.

He said it is unreasonable to expect quick resolutions. That said, he argued, a dialogue will open new pathways. He added that resorting to war is not a path that India should take.

When asked by @Rabs_AA about the role of third parties in pushing India and Pakistan towards dialogue, Pravin said he doesn't see Washington playing much of a role . He said previous U.S. efforts have been short-lived, and today that country finds itself in a quagmire in Afg.

Getting India and Pakistan together is not a priority for India, said Pravin. China, said Pravin, can indeed play a role. However, according to Pravin, making peace with Pakistan does not suit the ideology of the Modi government.

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