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tanguy bretagne

9 Mar, 4 tweets, 2 min read

Thanks to my amigo B. Vladimirov for reminding me of the NY Fed consumer survey.
We have CPI tomorrow and it's not a big deal. I'm waiting for the FOMC SEP and then prints will become much more relevant.

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The Fed Survey shows some pick up in inflation expectations but more importantly for the lower income cohort, the variance of expectations continues to increase.
This is very interesting because the Biden Stimulus will push a lot of money in households...
2/x

@MagnusMacro

via child credits (cc @MagnusMacro for highlighting).
What's also interesting is that their housing inflation expectations are sharply lower this month, while the 50k-100k bracket pushed significantly higher (alongside the move in USD rates).

So something to keep an eye on.

@MagnusMacro

@MagnusMacro One last chart on this topic of Rents.
Here is the chart of PCE rental and OER yoy chg.
Against the (always high) consumer expectations of yoy rent change.
As a colleague said: "crikey"
4/4
(time for chianti)

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More from @pauleluard

tanguy bretagne

@pauleluard

4 Mar

JPow had a very nice chat with the WSJ. He focused on jobs which is his motto, and also what he wants the fiscal side to continue helping.
He set the ground with "deply ingraned low inflation", which means "show me it's not transitory", buying him time for AIT.
1/x

He said he saw the rate moves last week (and I imagine he's also sending a message to vol traders that straddle breakeven ranges should be wider when you don't know, not smaller because you think it wont move for a while).
Overall he said what he's supposed to say.
2/x

The market is allright, rates are developping into a new range because the stimulus is coming and vaccinations are rolling out.
His message can change if and when
a) The stimulus is not to his liking (meaning not jobs supportive)
3/x

Read 5 tweets

tanguy bretagne

@pauleluard

28 Feb

So we had a crazy week. 5y yields had a one day move equivalent to a 3m straddle breakeven. It’s violent out there.
And whats worrying me is not that. The gamma model saw the craziness unfold but whats really bad is deeper.
1/x