Mukulathor / Thevar votes are going to play a crucial role in deciding #TamilNaduElections . They were the backing community of ADMK in 2016 but now ADMK having tough job in retaining the Thevar vote bank. If ADMK can retain their votes, ADMK will sweep South Tamil Nadu. (1/n)
ADMK split created dent in the party's Thevar votes. With Sasikala voicing to defeat DMK, ADMK will regain significant Thevar votes but still some people from the community were unhappy with ADMK as they feel that Sasikala was not treated properly. (2/n) #TamilNaduElections
Some people from Thevar community also feel that Deputy CM O Paneerselvam was sidelined in the party by CM Edappadi Palanisamy. Some also have problem with domination of Gounders over Thevars in ADMK. (3/n) #TamilNaduElections
On the other side, Thevar community will be happy with getting deputy CM from their community in form of O.Paneerselvam. If DMK forms government, some feel that the community may not even get deputy CM and hence they will vote for ADMK. (4/n) #TamilNaduElections
Some people from Thevars were also unhappy with ADMK announcing 10% internal reservation for Vanniyar community. It is because Vanniyars alone got the reservations but Thevars as powerful OBC community did not get this. (5/n) #TamilNaduElections
But impact of this Vanniyar reservations among Thevars will be less as ADMK also announced Caste based survey, which will help Thevars to get their due in future. (6/n) #TamilNaduElections
One more issues goes unnoticed regarding this. Thevars have antagonism with Devendra Kula Vellalars. This dates back to times of Muthuramalinga Thevar, Immanuel Sekaran and Mudukulathur riots. As Thevars were voting for ADMK earlier, Devendra Kula Vellalars voted for DMK. (7/n)
Devendra Kula vellalars are going to shift to ADMK alliance due to BJP this elections. This is because of PM Modi's outreach to Devendra Kula Vellalar community. So Thevar votes that ADMK may loose will be compensated by Devendra Kula Vellalar votes. (8/n)
If ADMK can retain huge chunk of Thevar votes and gain Devendra Kula Vellalar votes, ADMK will be able to sweep many constituencies in South Tamil Nadu and this may become a crucial factor in deciding election results.
End of the Analysis. Thank You!
#TamilNaduElections
End of the Analysis. Thank You!
#TamilNaduElections
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
