Woah. Kirkpatrick+10, Biden+11 seat in 2020. Going to be a different seat next year with redistricting of course, might even shed Cochise County and take in more Pima depending on how things go.
Of course on the other hand it might not change too much at all - these things are still in flux. I think regardless Dems are moderately favored here but the map is consequential.
Kirkpatrick was elected in 2008 by flipping the very large #AZ01. She lost reelection to Gosar in 2010, but then won the redrawn #AZ01 in 2012 and 2014. She ran for Senate against McCain in 2016 and lost, and then moved to #AZ02, flipping the seat in 2018 and holding it in 2020.
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They incentivize the laziest kind of writing, truly a wonderful gift to pundits. If a politician's approval rating changes even a small amount you can just do some hand-waiving and chalk it up to some minor event from a week ago that caught almost nobody's attention.
Also sometimes you get a pattern where some tracking polls consistently find approval numbers in slightly different ranges compared to others, really just making it easier to write whatever Take you want.