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12 Mar, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Ummm, someone needs to have a chat with @ONS about both rollover FTAs and why Singapore isn’t China or Japan.
(I know everyone is much more excited about a different thing in the report, but there we go)
Yes, Singapore is a transhipment hub for the wider region, but

a) the UK-Singapore bilateral FTA has no impact on this for UK exports
b) increased transshipment would have shown up as increased exports to Singapore, not to to Japan and China.
If they had to speculate unsure why they didn’t say, “hey, could be the trade deal with Japan.”

Anyhow, this doesn’t really matter. Just odd.

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More from @SamuelMarcLowe

Sam Lowe Profile picture
12 Mar
I would expect trade volumes to bounce back a bit in the next release, but still be pretty bad - especially on the export side.
I mean, it's not particularly difficult to understand: if you put up large barriers to international trade, the expected result is trading becomes more expensive and difficult, and therefore there is less trade than if the barriers were not there.

🤷‍♂️
On specifics:

I’d expect exports of manufactured goods to rebound (in line with increasing EU demand) more strongly than UK exports of food, meat, shellfish etc which are ... not in a good place.
Read 4 tweets
Sam Lowe Profile picture
22 Feb
Trade in services is not well understood.

Rather than obsessing about services exports, UK policy-makers should focus on investment and ensuring UK remains an attractive destination for services firms to operate out of.

New policy brief by me: cer.eu/publications/a…
The UK is a services trade superpower.

It is the only G7 economy that sees more than 50 per cent of its services directly exported (mode 1) from its own soil to the rest of the world.
But it can't get complacent. The UK’s decision to exit EU’s single market jeopardises its position as a hub for multinational services firms to sell to clients across Europe. Policy-makers need to ensure that the slow trickle of business moving to the EU does not become a flood.
Read 10 tweets
Sam Lowe Profile picture
24 Dec 20
This is the UK’s internal “who won the negotiations scorecard”, apparently. (via @EuroGuido):

scribd.com/document/48904…
On rules of origin, suggests that compromise found on batteries and electric vehicles (woo!)

But I have questions about the cumulation “Win” ... as the UK opening position was much more expansive than written here, and win looks like what we knew EU was offering.
That’s quite the spin, lads.
Read 13 tweets
Sam Lowe Profile picture
7 Dec 20
I have stumbled across some information signalling that EU will agree to allow Northern Irish companies and consumers to continue benefiting from imports under EU free trade agreements (as well as UK free trade agreements). No news on exports.
But points to some good progress being made in joint committee negotiations. And I like good news.
In practical terms, if this comes into effect, would mean NI importers could still benefit from the EU FTAs UK hasn’t rolled over. It also means they wouldn’t have to demonstrate import remaining in Northern Ireland (as is case when using UK FTAs).

Best of both worlds klaxon.
Read 4 tweets
Sam Lowe Profile picture
7 Dec 20
Operation put the baby back down to sleep and hope she doesn’t wake up while I’m doing media interviews has begun.
She’s currently standing in her cot and yelping.
Interview one: success!
Read 4 tweets
Sam Lowe Profile picture
6 Dec 20
Would be keen to know which of labour and environmental protections covered by LPF it is the UK would like to scrap. Because I suspect the answer is actually none of them.
Is it any of these?

(i) fundamental rights at work,
(ii) occupational health and safety standards,
(iii) fair working conditions and employment standards, and
(iv) information and consultation rights at company level, and
(v) restructuring.
How about these?

i) access to environmental information, public participation and access to justice in environmental matters; (ii) environmental impact assessment and strategic environmental assessment; (iii) industrial emissions
Read 6 tweets

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