Thread by @BrunoBrussels

It is going to get a lot worse - especially if (as is distinctly possible) the EU blocks a vaccine shipment to UK this April or May
Invidious comparisons between Britain and EU on vaccine roll out is becoming a major factor and will make inevitable Brexit friction worse

https://twitter.com/Sam1Fleming/status/1370276116792029187

Dynamic hard to break
UK government talks up success on vaccination procurement and roll out to play down impact of Brexit failures - especially on customs systems & absence of deals on food
There was always going to be friction but real, avoidable problems now exposed

Meanwhile perceptions that Britain is doing better on vaccines is driving some EU capitals a bit nuts while London is rubbing their noses in it
Resentment is poisoning the post TCA and NI protocol way beyond expected friction

As we saw on Jan 29 when EU almost introduced customs controls on Irish land border to potentially block Pfizer jabs travellling from Grange Castle plant in Ireland to UK. Crazy

What is depressing has been the failure of both sides to talk to each other - BOTH sides
A key moments this year, the phone has not been picked up

Vaccine tensions are not going to go away. Supply problems in q2* could well be worse as mass vaccinations across Europe rolled out. This crunch will come as Brexit tensions peak in April on Northern Ireland with UK decision to unilaterally suspend (albeit limited) checks

*Supply bumps are inevitable given the time scale, production is a real triumph of science & industry, but squeeze has been compounded by decision to outsource procurement to EU (now generally recognised as too slow) leading to the loss of critical months

Now distinctly possible the rancour is now about to spill into other interactions between EU & UK. If it happens it will represent a huge failure of diplomacy for both sides, neither of which has covered itself in glory this year