Thread by @awprokop

Let's go through the filibuster state of play:

1) Dem opposition to reform may be broader than Manchin and Sinema. But many you'd expect to be skeptics are on board or open. And if you win over Manchin and Sinema, you've probably won over everybody else

vox.com/22319564/filib…

2) Historical path to reform is clear. Get the majority convinced that the minority is abusing powers, so they're outraged enough to go nuclear.

Put another way: find a specific issue for which a GOP filibuster will motivate/pressure Manchin and Sinema to back a rules change

3) It is currently unclear what the filibustered bill that would motivate Manchin and Sinema to flip is — or whether it even exists.

Voting rights, labor rights, government funding + debt ceiling are all possibilities. But, not yet clear whether they'd be moved.

4) Having only a 50 vote majority makes rules changes very tough. Can't afford to lose even one Dem. Any one of their whims really could sink it.

Also, beyond rules changes, every single D vote is needed to do *anything* (that's opposed by Rs). So burning bridges isn't an option

5) There's a bit of "so you're telling me there's a chance" going on whenever Manchin says something ambiguous.

But we really don't know yet whether the reality is that he and Sinema are totally inflexible, or whether they may flip as circumstances change as others have before