Thread by @DrTomFrieden

Covid Epi Weekly: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over

100 million Covid infections in the US
100 million vaccine doses administered

In the race of vaccination vs. variants, we're gaining on the virus. But nobody should declare victory in the third quarter. Safer doesn't mean safe.
1/

@CDCgov weekly summary and website:
-11% case decrease this week
-Positivity down 11%, to an encouragingly low 4.1%
-Vaccination up to 2.2M/day, 8% increase
-100 million people vaccinated
-Deaths down 19% - faster decrease from vaccination saving lives bit.ly/3eEV1T
2/

But better doesn’t mean good. Rates still very high:
>50,000 cases/day
Nearly 5,000 hospitalizations last week
>1,400 deaths/day
Variants spreading, possibly more than half of NYC cases

It’s a race: vaccination vs. variants. Who wins will determine whether there’s a 4th surge.3/

Variant B1 bombers:
-B117
-B1526
-EEK! Possibly overcoming immunity from infection
Good news from Brazil: The vaccine appears to overcome that variant.
But no guarantee new variants won’t escape vaccine-induced immunity.
The more the virus spreads, the greater that risk.
4/

Will there be a 4th surge in the US?

Those who answered the poll bit.ly/3evqt6x are optimistic there won’t be.

How well variants do depends partly on the virus but mostly on us. Mask. Distance. Vaccinate.

Variants may well be more deadly. bit.ly/3ewUP8L
5/

Don’t let up too soon. Don’t assume protection until 2 weeks after full vaccination. bit.ly/2NhrTX8

Don’t lift mask mandates while the virus is still spreading.

The pandemic isn’t over. Not in the US, and certainly not globally.

6/

Clear discussion of CDC guidance post vaccination. As more data become available & more people get vaccinated, recommendations will evolve. That's science.

No vaccine is 100% effective. Rare vaccine reactions happen–much less than risk from infection.

bit.ly/38v16hp
7/

Scale up vaccination using multiple platforms
-Mass sites
-Pharmacies
-Pop-up locations
-Doctors’ offices
Soon we'll go from too few vaccines to too few arms to put vaccines into.
Find and address barriers: to access, to understanding, to acceptance.
53eig.ht/38zxiQI
8/

It’s not wrong to open schools, businesses. Restaurants, bars, and large indoor events are much riskier, especially without mask mandates. No worker should be avoidably exposed to Covid, or have to plead with a customer to mask up. OSHA should act. cnn.it/3t6En34
9/

~1 in 200 infections in the US result in death: more than 100 million people infected already. Globally, with a younger population, maybe one death per 300 or more infections, and Covid deaths under-reported. There may have already been a billion Covid infections globally. 10/

Five points to end the week.

First, Covid is far from over. Have a look at the map from @NYTimes below.

It’s still raining Covid pretty hard out there. Not much green on the map yet.

Stay safe. Mask up. Patience, discipline, solidarity.

nyti.ms/2YAN7kS

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Second, think about the next generation. It was to have been Gen Alpha, now maybe Gen C, skipping A and B after X, Y and Z.

The sooner we get to the new normal the better we will all do. Masks, distance, vaccination. Patience, discipline, solidarity.

cnn.it/3t6FBLI
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Third, recognize failures at local, state, national and global levels. No institution got it right. US public health systems had pre-existing conditions that increased our vulnerability. We need long-term solutions.

Good report: Ready or Not?

Not.
bit.ly/3viYIUx
13/

We need to improve emergency response, public health, primary care. I outline what’s needed broadly and on cardiovascular health. Even BEFORE Covid, US life expectancy was lagging behind other countries’ –more disability, more illness, earlier death. bit.ly/38A2wHp
14/

We must build health resilience. The Biden-Harris Administration can build on success stopping Covid. Start with preventing heart attacks and strokes, which kill nearly a million Americans a year. Most of those deaths can be prevented. Here’s how bit.ly/3rJZyrs 15/

“It ain’t over ‘till it’s over.”

Yogi Berra
Great American Philosopher (and Catcher)

16/(this week’s thread IS over)