It is good to listen to political scientists from the "realist school". I listened to an interview with John Mearsheimer from 2002 (then it wasn't clear how fast China would grow).

He said that US cannot be a "global hegemon", but it is a "regional hegemon" (in its hemisphere).
He said that America's grand strategy was to prevent the rise of "regional hegemons" anywhere in the world, especially Eurasia - and if China "became a bigger Hong Kong", US would have no option than to either slow its rise or contain it.

That is exactly what is happening today.
That is the point of Trump's tariffs, bans on Huawei/ZTE, "The Quad";

To either slow China's rise and/or contain it.

The US doesn't care if China's economy collapses & Africa is hit by a depression as a result. Africa's economic collapse will just be "collateral damage".
It is also interesting to know what "realists" have to say about Africa. Mearsheimer is very blunt; "Africa does not matter - and US should not get into great power competition in Africa, as it is a waste of time and resources (as it was during the last cold war)".

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More from @cchukudebelu

14 Mar
US politics is predictable.

There's a constituency in the Republican Party committed to ensuring that the US Government does not fund abortion or promote gay rights in Africa.

This influences the Africa policy of Republican presidents.
Conversely there's a constituency in the Democratic Party committed to ensuring that the US Government promotes gay rights in Africa.

This influences the Africa policy of Democratic Presidents.
But no US president is under any pressure to promote democracy or human rights in Africa; the same way US presidents are under pressure to react to Hong Kong.

He will not be punished at the polls if he does not.

All politics is local
Read 4 tweets
14 Mar
I think we are back to HIV/AID anti-retrovirals distribution - the dynamics are similar to Covid-19 vaccine distribution.

Let is remember that Africa began to receive anti-retrovirals SEVEN years after distribution began in the West, and this was only due to PEPFAR.
I.e. Nigeria, like most African nations 20 years ago, was waiting for a "benefactor" to buy anti HIV/AID drugs.

The situation with Covid-19 is basically a repeat of that.

But other African nations like Algeria, South Africa & Egypt are acting a lot more proactively.
We are also back to a debate over intellectual property. Thailand, Brazil & India had running battles with Western pharmaceutical giants over licensing and IP of anti-retrovirals.

I recall Thailand decided to damn the consequences & do what it had to do. It was "controversial".
Read 4 tweets
13 Mar
This is a gasoline generator.

Everyone in Lagos knows what it is, but none of the people in the West who craft "climate change policy for Africa" and ram it down the throats of Africans, knows what it is.
But I need to go a bit deeper.

There are 42,912,900 households in Nigeria. Even if only 10% of the households in Nigeria own a generator like this, that implies 4 million gasoline generators.

The number is almost certainly significantly higher.
Now imagine how much pollution, NOx and particulate matter emissions millions of gasoline generators emit in Nigeria/Lagos, every day?

But somebody in faraway Europe or North America will say, "let them use solar".

But solar installation costs could be 10 - 20 times higher.
Read 6 tweets
13 Mar
During the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the US Military destroyed a key bridge carrying 15 key oil and gas pipelines. Reconstruction was supposed to cost $5 million - but the US Military decided to bury the pipelines underground, even though studies showed the soil was too sandy.
Burying the pipelines underground was supposed to cost 5 times as much - but by the time everything was resolved, $100 million was spent.

This is how trillions of dollars were wasted during the US occupation of Iraq and corruption boomed.
Of course, there were US contractors who LOVED this environment of no-bid, ad hoc contracts, where money was no object. The loved the gravy train.

One estimate is that the war cost the US tax payer $2.4 trillion.

China's BRI in contrast is supposed to cost $1 trillion.
Read 4 tweets
11 Mar
Obama's (and Cameron's & Sarkozy's) main legacy in Africa is the bombing of Libya and the destabilization of Sahel and West Africa;

Not "Power Africa".

But African leaders are not blameless, their weak states were "stress tested" and found wanting.
A lot has been said about "Nigeria's size", but "Nigeria's size" did not prevent it from being destabilized by internal factors and the fall out from Libya. This much trumpeted "size" hasn't provided jobs for young Nigerians (youth unemployment rates are close to 50%).
A state has two functions;
1. Preserve a realm of security.
2. Preserve a realm of prosperity.

Nigeria has FAILED on both counts.

African states exist to serve their citizens, not impress Pan-Africanists across the ocean with their "size" and "potential".
Read 4 tweets
11 Mar
When W.E.B. DuBois and other pioneers advanced "Pan-Africanism", it was very clear what they hoped to accomplish; emancipation of the Black Race - and this meant fighting Jim Crow in the US and fighting colonialism in Africa and the Caribbean.
When Mussolini invaded Ethiopia in the 1930s, African Americans volunteered in their thousands to fight the Italians. This even scared the US State Department.

There was an understanding that the Civil Rights Movement & the De-Colonization Movement were part of the same struggle
The end of Apartheid marked the end of a unifying Pan-Africanist idea. There's no real direction now. No real response to events like Rwanda, Libya, chaos in Nigeria, genocides in Ethiopia or the economic chaos in Africa and much of the developing world.
Read 5 tweets

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