1/Honduras holds its primary elections today, the results of which are not expected for days. The vote comes at a tumultuous time, as a number of the candidates have been mentioned over the past week in a NY drug trafficking case. Here’s what’s at stake:
2/Besides deciding upon candidates, the parties participating in the vote want to show strength. In 2017, voter participation was down overall, but the National Party (PN), somewhat miraculously, jumped 20% despite not having a contentious primary. 
3/The ruling PN is the most disciplined, well-oiled & financed machine and has the largest “voto duro,” or loyal vote. Part of that is due to hundreds of thousands of public employees whose jobs depend on the party’s continuance. Unchecked clientelism is another factor.
4/There are 2 main contenders in the PN, president of Congress Mauricio Oliva & mayor of Tegucigalpa Nasry “Tito” Asfura, who is considered the favored candidate of President Hernández. Asfura has a leg up in popularity & financing & appears set to coast to victory.
5/Libre has four contenders, led by Xiomara Castro, who is running for president for a third time & is wife of former president Mel Zelaya. Castro appears poised to win the nomination again. Libre wants to lead an alliance & therefore will look to show strength through turnout.
6/The Liberal Party (PL) has perhaps the most contentious, and consequential, vote between leading contenders Luis Zelaya & Yani Rosenthal, who was released from a US prison just last year after serving time for drug related-money laundering. Zelaya was the PL nominee in 2017.
7/The outcome of the PL primary could ultimately decide how the opposition aligns itself for general elections. If Zelaya wins, he is likely to form an alliance with Salvador Nasralla, who narrowly lost in a 2017 election marred by allegations of fraud & has own party called PSH.
8/If Rosenthal wins PL, then he might form an alliance with Libre. In that case, Castro would likely be the candidate, as Rosenthal appears more concerned with regaining his quote of power than actually becoming president.
9/Due to the contentious & consequential nature of the PL vote, many independents might vote in the PL primary, which would inflate the party’s voter participation rate & perhaps make it look stronger than it is. The PL received less votes in the 2017 general than the primary.
10/Whatever the scenario, the opposition is unlikely to unite behind a single candidate for the November election. Nasralla & Luis Zelaya have said they wish to form an alliance no matter the outcome of today’s vote. Without the PL behind Zelaya, that would be much weaker.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
