A successful consumer tech company should always be valued significantly higher than a normal consumer company.
Opportunity size is large for both but the digital distribution of the tech company services allows it traverse the opp landscape faster than a normal consumer company.
Since capex is not a challenge in setting up a tech business, therefore a tech company has to create alternate barriers, thus the need to drive business velocity as network effect is true barrier to entry.
To get to that scale, tech companies have to sacrifice near term eps.
If public market doesnot agree with this, its the markets' loss, these companies will either stay private or raise equity from Nasdaq.

So in true tech if the public market participants want the alpha, they have to devise alternate methods to assess a company and its valuations.
Now when eps is not available as an easy metric to value companies, it takes away the analyst community's favorite valuation tools like pe pb.
Thus the need to look at companies through a fundamental lens, something we have talked about extensively at Sapling.
Alternative tools such as assessing the company's products and services' ability to drive dopamine rush in the minds of the consumers or reduce friction from the lives of its patrons are tools, that unfortunately cannot be mapped on a metric scale.
While the breadth of research is immense amongst the analyst community, unfortunately it comes at the cost of true depth.
The need to have a superficial opinion on every company eats away at the time that could have been otherwise spent on scrutinizing moats in depth.
And this constant flurry of clutching at straws and coming up with imaginary pseudo red flags is more harmful than constructive.
When one doesn't understand, one can respectfully leave it rather than compulsively coming up with an opinion to impress headless followers.

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More from @CapitalSapling

2 Feb
Stunning results from #IntellectDesign , pat of 80 crores as against loss of 11 crores last year. Sequentially a stunning growth of 35% in bottomline.
Trading at ridiculously cheap valuations now for a software product company with great products. long way to go.

Disc: Invested Image
To sell cement 2day, u gotta make it 2day

To sell cement day after, u gotta make a new batch to sell.

Develop a software product 2day,
Sell it 2day, 2moro, next year.

Simple Stuff Desi analysts dont get,

& then they go value product tech cmpnies like conventional products.
Temenos a company, #Intellect recently beat amongst 20 others in a Canadian bank deal trades at a valuation of $10 billion( 70k crores) at a price sales X of 10.

Intellect doesnot even consider them competition, Palantir, a cmpny that intellect considers so, trades $55 billion.
Read 26 tweets
21 Sep 20
Phenol tanker load was selling at Rs140000 per ton in 2018 and was selling at 42000/ton last month selling at 50000/ ton this month and brokers write earnings, ebidta, eps estimates of Fy 23 of Deepak nitrite and so many others to the second decimal in research reports. Jai ho!
Reminds of a joke

A fishing accessories store was selling shiny bate hooks. A man asked the store manager:
" why do u sell such shiny hooks, the fish dont even care"
The store manager replied
" We dont sell to the fish, we sell to the fishermen"
But how does it even matter, sab karte hai , industry standard practise hai toh karna padta hai!!Hum.bhi kar lete hai!
Read 4 tweets
20 Sep 20
1. We a see a trend these days to compare operational cash flows to net profits and judging the quality of a company based on this rather simplistic metric. Through this thread we seek to dispel this myth through an investee sapling of ours. #saplingcapital #Saplingframework
2. One of our most favorite technical pesticide manufacturing sapling has often been ridiculed for not generating operating cash flows in line with net profit.
If all that were required to identify great companies was to compare OCF to profits everyone would be a super investor.
3. Going in depth and scratching beneath the surface helps and in this case it required one to study the nature of the trade.The company is one of the largest exporter of technical grade pesticides.
Read 9 tweets
19 Sep 20
1. Disproportionate returns are generated from companies undergoing ROCE expansion, pharma saw a massive run due to Roce expansion playing out. Roce expansion takes place when sectoral tailwinds are blowing.
2.Running vanilla screeners wont do it and one is likely to lose out on returns depending solely upon them.
3.A lot of our investee companies such as Laurus, Neuland were trading at close to single digit Roce in the last year.
Read 5 tweets

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